January 18, 2011: Rain ending later today - could be flurry/light mix at end - winter storm threat Thursday

January 18, 2011

6 PM Update

Snow will move into the St Louis to Mt Vernon area on Wednesday night - should spread in the Cape Girardeau, Missouri to Evansville, Indiana area between 3 am and 9 am on Thursday morning.  Snow will then spread south and east across the rest of the region.

Will tweak snowfall totals tonight if I think there are any significant changes. 

Right now the totals below look fine.

Still a good 24-36 hours away from the event. 

Beau

January 18, 2011

First call for snowfall totals - issued at 1 PM - January 18th

Most of this snow will fall late Wednesday night - northwest part of the region and then spread south and east on Thursday into Thursday evening.  Snow should come to an end on Friday - cold into the weekend. 

Additional snow or a mix possible Sunday into Monday. 

ILLINOIS

Carbondale, IL 1-3"
Cairo, IL 1-3"
DuQuoin, IL 2-3" locally 4" possible
Harrisburg, IL 1-3"
Marion, IL 1-3"
McLeansboro, IL 1-3"
Metropolis, IL 1-3"
Mt Vernon, IL 2-4"
Wayne City, IL 2-4"
Rosiclare, IL 1-3"
Olney, IL 2-4"
Sparta, IL 2-4"
Vienna, IL 1-3"


INDIANA

Evansville, IN 2-4"
Princeton, IN 2-4"



MISSOURI

Farmington, MO 2-4"
Advance, MO 1-3"
Dexter, MO 1-2"
Kennett, MO 1-2"
Perryville, MO 2-4"
Maldon, MO 1-2"
Marble Hill, MO 1-3"
Piedmont, MO 1-3"
St Louis, MO 3-5" locally higher near that area
Cape Girardeau, MO 1-3"
Sikeston, MO 1-3"



KENTUCKY

Ashland, KY - 2-4"
Elizabethtown, KY 2-3"
Benton, KY 1-3"
Bowling Green, KY 1-3"
Cadiz, KY 1-3"
Hopkinsville, KY 1-3"
Leitchfield, KY 2-3"
London, KY 1-3"
Louisa, KY 2-4"
Louisville, KY 2-4"
Lexington, KY 1-3"
Mayfield, KY 1-2"
Morgantown, KY 1-3"
Murray, KY 1-2"
Madisonvile, KY 1-3"
Owensboro, KY 2-4"
Paducah, KY 1-3"
Somertset, KY 1-3"
Symsonia, KY 1-3"
Wickliffe, KY 1-3"
Williamstown, KY 2-4"


TENNESSEE

Dyersburg, TN 1-2"
Martin, TN 1-2"
Paris, TN 1-2"
Union City, TN - 1-2"


Previous updates below...
January 18, 2011

10 AM Update

No change in forecast - was a few degrees warmer this morning than expected.

Temperatures will fall this afternoon into the 30s.

1-3" of widespread snow likely on Thursday into Friday morning.   Some higher accumulations as you go north and west of our region.  Will continue to monitor - still a few days away.

Cold on Friday into Saturday.

Another potential precipitation maker arrives on Sunday and Monday.  Too soon to make a call on precipitation type.

Winter is here and winter is here to stay - December was much below normal temperatures (which is what I forecasted it to be) and January will end up below normal in the temperature department.  Which was not what I forecasted it to be!  January was supposed to bring normal to above normal temperatures towards the middle and end.  Of course - that is not happening. 

So - we will just stick on the cold bandwagon until we see reasons to jump.

It is winter - after all!

Stay tuned!

January 18, 2011

Winter Weather Radar is up and running
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

Note - I have changed my Facebook to BEAU DODSON WEATHER

I am now doing video weather briefings
January 18th Video - http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm

You can find more updates on my Facebook (under Beau Dodson Weather) - Twitter is under Beau Dodson

Bottom line it for me Beau...

For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...

The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: None

The forecast for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow:  Precipitation could end late on Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday night as a light mix or flurry. 


Forecast:

Tuesday - Cloudy.  A chance for rain - rain should move out in the afternoon.  Possibly ending as a little flurry or light snow shower activity over portions of the area.  High temperatures in the upper 30s with temperatures falling in the afternoon and evening. 

Tuesday night - Breezy.  Cloudy with a chance for flurries.  Colder.  Low near 25 degrees.

Wednesday - Partly cloudy and cold.  Highs near 34 degrees.

Wednesday Night - Cloudy.  Chance for snow very late.  Low temperature around 24 degrees.

Thursday - Snow likely in the afternoon.  Some accumulation possible.  High temperatures around 32 degrees.  Temperatures falling into the 20s during the afternoon.

Thursday night - Snow likely.  Windy and cold.  Low temperature in the middle to upper teens.

Friday - Flurries.  Windy and cold.  Highs in the lower 20s.

Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.

Your regional and local radars - including our new precipitation type radar - click here.

Barometer readings can be viewed here  - Barometer Readings.

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Rain will continue today (Tuesday) and will come to an end later this afternoon.  Temperature will fall this afternoon as colder air filters into the region.

There is a small chance of a light mix of sleet or snow at the end of the precipitation.  However, nothing significant is expected.


The next big story will be the snow and cold heading our way for Thursday and Thursday night.  Much colder air will arrive late on Thursday and continue into Saturday.

Snowfall accumulations of 1-3" will likely occur across our entire region on Thursday into Friday morning.  Some heavier accumulations are possible - the exact placement of heavier snow will still need to be determined.  Windy conditions may cause blowing and drifting snow.

This would be a category 1 on the snowstorm scale and for now (since it is still several days away) we will place this as a medium confidence level.   It is possible that portions of the region may be impacted by a category 2 winter storm.  Stay tuned for updates on the placement of the heavier snow bands.

You can read more about the snowstorm rating scale by clicking here.

 

Dodson Snowstorm Rating System

Category 1 Snowstorm


Accumulation: Snowfall accumulations of 1-4" are forecast. A fairly common event.

Life Threat Level: Low threat to life if residents use care and caution when venturing out. Remember that any roadway that is slick can be dangerous. Nearly 1000 people were killed during the last two winters from accidents on slick roadways.

Travel Impact: Roads may become slick. Use caution.

Economic Impact: Little to low economic impact is expected.

Advice to Emergency Officials: Expect normal snow related operations. Listen for updates from the NWS and local media.

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Snow is expected to move into our local counties from the west/northwest on Wednesday night (late) and spread across the entire region on Thursday.  Snow should continue through the day and into the evening hours.

This system is still several days away and the exact track and intensity of the storm is still in question.  However - it does appear likely that some snow will occur.

Temperatures on Friday could be quite cold - likely only reaching into the teens or lower 20s.  Temperatures on Friday night should dip into the single digits over our region.

The map below is what the GFS Model is forecasting for temperatures on Friday afternoon - bitterly cold.  Click image for a larger view.  Image was provided by http://www.wright-weather.com/

Meteorologist Beau Dodson

McCracken County Office of Emergency Management

Please visit Chris Bailey's weather blog if you live in central and eastern Kentucky http://www.kyweathercenter.com/

For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php

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