Good morning everyone! Wow, what a beautiful day yesterday was. And just look outside this morning - blue sky - fallish temperatures - moderate winds. What is there not to love about this weather? :)
Your seven day forecast can be viewed by clicking here. Parts of our area are under a freeze watch and warning for tonight. In case you have some sensitive plants - you might want to cover them. Halloween weekend should be nice - I don't see any problems.
I am concerned that I am going to be wrong on the pattern becoming more active. It appeared that would be the case - however there are definitely conflicting signals now. We do have a couple of chances of rain next week - but just how beneficial the rain will be is certainly in question. I will monitor!
A total of 63 tornadoes have now been reported (preliminary numbers) from the outbreak a few days ago. Many in the Ohio Valley and southeast United States. Here are the latest maps from Monday into Wednesday. Click for larger views. You can view the storm summary sheet by clicking here.
Six tornadoes hit Kentucky (storm surveys ares till being conducted). You can read more about the tornadoes by clicking here.
The maps below also show you how fortunate our region was. Yes, there was some scattered damage - but it could have been a whole lot worse.
Your daily weather map - from the National Weather Service
The nice weather will continue into the Halloween weekend. The next chance for showers won't arrive until next week. At one point it was looking as if we would have another big storm on Monday or Tuesday - however, the trends have been away from a big event. This is bad news for those who need rain. There are signals for better precipitation chances later next week - but even that is a bit uncertain.
We are still in drought. Some areas did pick up some rain over the last 6-10 days. As a matter of fact a lot of people received between 1 and 2 inches. However, most of southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky picked up less than 1". I recorded 0.39" here at my place. A far cry from the expected rainfall totals.
Fire departments continue to ask everyone to please not burn brush or grass. Click here for burn ban information (thanks NWS Paducah)
It does appear that both September and October will end up with above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. So, the fall forecast still appears on target. We will have to see how November goes - I had expected a turn to stormier conditions as we moved into the middle of November. I was thinking last week that we would have to push that up even earlier - but those signals appeared to have changed. So - once again - we will wait and see how everything unfolds.
Here are the latest drought maps: You can read more about the drought at this site - click here. As always with most of the images on this page - just click to make it larger. (Some of these maps will have to be updated next week in order to factor in the recent rains)
The above map is the national view of the drought. Deeper red is more severe - yellow is less severe drought.
Let's take a look at the official 8-14 day outlook from the NWS.
Temperature map above - leans towards normal to above normal temperatures. This may be off some - because from what I can tell the ensembles and long range data indicates much of the eastern U.S. and our region would be below normal. But - either way - nothing too unusual or extreme.
Precipitation is definitely in the below normal probabilities. This means that the odds favor below normal precipitation. Let's hope this is wrong.
Have a wonderful Thursday!
- Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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