Your seven day forecast can be viewed by clicking here. A beautiful forecast for the Fort Massac Encampment activities and other outdoor events this coming weekend. Enjoy!
No widespread significant rainfall or severe weather is expected through the weekend. I had been forecasting a turn to a stormier pattern after the 18th. Some of the latest data indicates we may have to push that off even further. Something we will have to monitor in the days to come. October has been extremely dry. It appears that will continue for the short term.
GOOD morning everyone. Wow - what a beautiful morning. The leaves are quickly changing - each passing day brings more and more reds, yellows, and orange splashes of color. I am a big fan of fall and spring in this region - and the reason why is because of all the amazing colors. I have lived in different areas of Canada and the United States - nothing beats western Kentucky and southern Illinois when it comes to the changing of the seasons!
Let's take a look at your forecast high temperatures for Saturday and Sunday (big outdoor weekend for a lot of people). Stunning - sums up the forecast for the coming days. Fall! Images provided by www.wright-weather.com Click images for larger view.
We had some unsettled weather over the last few days. Many areas received a little bit of rain - anywhere from trace amounts to a little over 1/2". Not everyone was fortunate enough to receive the much needed rainfall. Many areas remain extremely dry.
Burn bans remain in effect until further notice for numerous counties. Please don't burn grass or brush. The fire departments would appreciate your efforts to help them not stay busy. To see all Kentucky Counties with a burn ban - click here.
Just how dry has it been? This national map shows how much precipitation (in inches) has fallen since October 1st. Many areas of the United States are dry. The second map is the percent of normal precipitation for our region. As you can see - well below normal. Click images for larger view.
The new drought monitor maps have been posted. They are not pretty. The drought continues to spread and intensify over a larger area. Not good news for those needing rain (which is all of us in this region). Let's take a look at the latest maps: (remember you can click on all of the images to make them larger)
This first map is the national view. Anywhere in yellow, orange, brown, or red is experiencing dry conditions or drought conditions. As you look back over my posts from weeks past you can see the area is growing.
Kentucky map - click above image for larger view.
Illinois map - click above image for larger view.
Indiana - above image. Indiana is extremely dry. Click image for larger view.
To view other states you can click here - then click on your state.
A regional view (above) - zoomed in for you. You can see our counties are extremely dry. Some more than others - but overall the coverage is widespread. Drought conditions will only grow worse in the coming days. Widespread heavy rain is not in the current forecast, unfortunately.
The short blend drought maps also indicate just how dry it has become.
The map below is the official 8-14 day precipitation outlook from the National Weather Service. As you can see they once again have placed our region in below normal precipitation. Not a good sign. There are some indications that one or two systems may impact our region after the 20th of the month. Seems like the date keeps getting pushed off.
The map below is a model simulation of one of the systems forecast to impact our region later this month. However, keep in mind that this is just what one computer model indicates. You can see a deep area of low pressure to the west of our region and showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front (you will just have to imagine the front in there). The pink and purple/blue areas are rainfall. Let's hope this verifies (at least the rain part of the forecast). The recent track record of systems has been to be weaker than forecast - and in turn produce less rainfall. So - I guess we won't become overly excited about our rain prospects just yet. Plenty of time to keep an eye on the potential.
The map below indicates the 5 day rainfall forecast. As you can see - our region is not expected to experience any significant rainfall. Bad news for the drought. I know a lot of farmers are planting winter wheat - so this continues to be a big concern for them. We need moisture in the ground.
Meteorologist Joe Bastardi pointed out some interesting analog years (analog years are years that are similar to our current year/weather pattern - so when we look ahead to the coming fall and winter we like to look at what has happened in the past and compare it to what is happening now). Here (below) are some of the analog years that he has picked. I will show you the maps for November through January. A mixed bag for our region - if this were to verify. The blue area would be below normal temperatures.
The map above is an analog for November. A cold start to winter (end of fall)?
Then the above map indicates what December might look like. Colder than normal for our region.
Then the below map would be January and the following would be February.
The above analog year forecasts are from just one forecaster and his thoughts on what could happen in the coming months. It is a bit early to make a call on how winter turns out. I have posted my thoughts in the fall forecast thread (top of page on the right - just click on Beau's Fall Forecast). I have hinted as to how I think winter will turn out, as well. There are some pretty strong signals as to how the overall pattern will pan out. This adds some confidence to the forecast.
On the subject of are on-going fall weather - I have been forecasting for the overall temperature pattern to be above normal when you combine the September through November period. We will see how that works out. The above November map would certainly not be warm. So - something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.
Some interesting maps, though. Perhaps a cold start to winter and then a move towards warmer weather? That would not be uncommon for La Nina in our area. But - no two years are ever exactly alike. And remember it only takes one or two BIG events for everyone to perceive the winter as being bad or severe. So - stay tuned!
There have been some hints that we would turn quite a bit cooler towards the end of this month. That is not for certain, though. A lot will depend on the eventual storm tracks of the next tropical system that could move into the Gulf of Mexico and some east coast systems. Still plenty of time to keep an eye on how that unfolds.
Finally - for those tracking Tropical Storm Paula - click here.
Have a nice week and weekend!
- Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
The national watch/warning map can be viewed here: Click here
You can now send in storm reports via Twitter - click here for more information.
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