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Good morning fellow weather enthusiasts - I assume if you are reading this blog that you are interested in our atmosphere and local weather conditions! If you enjoy reading the blog then please pass it along to your friends. I try to update daily and cover southern Illinois, southeast Indiana, Kentucky, northwest Tennessee, southeast Missouri, and occasionally northeast Arkansas.
You can always email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Your seven day local forecast can be viewed by clicking here. You can also enter your own zip code/city/town.
Bottom line - Today will be beautiful! Don't think we will hear any complaints.
Saturday will be dry (windy) - most of Saturday night will be dry. A few scattered showers could move in before midnight on Saturday (low chance) - most will hold off until after midnight.
Best rain chances will hold off until Sunday then again on Monday/Tuesday (possibly squally weather) and perhaps a third shot on Wednesday. Chance of rain again around the 31st. Hoping Halloween Eve (Saturday - when most kids trick or treat) will be dry.
Low risk for a strong/severe storm on Sunday afternoon/evening. Will have to revisit the severe threat for next week (especially Monday night into Tuesday night) - still too much uncertainty to raise concerns. Another threat around the 31st.
Right now it appears there could be a squall line across portions of the Ohio Valley on Monday night into Tuesday night (some difference on opinion on the speed of the front).
Would not be surprised to see the Storm Prediction Center outline a large area from Illinois/Kentucky/Michigan/Indiana/Ohio/Pennsylvania/West Virginia and New York. A bit more uncertain further south and west of there. Main threat would be a damaging wind event. There are questions on just how much instability there will be to work with.
Fire danger will be significant/high today into Saturday - please DO NOT burn anything outside! Fire departments will appreciate your efforts.
The next 4-6 weeks appear active - more storm systems moving through our region. Perhaps we are finally breaking the pattern! A little earlier than I thought - thought maybe middle/late November. Appears it could start from next week - forward.
If you would like to track Tropical Storm Richard (which has formed in the Caribbean) then click here.
Today's Weather Map:
Although today and most of Saturday will be nice there are some changes in the weather pattern unfolding. The first change, that we will experience, is a chance for showers and some thunderstorms on late Saturday night into Monday. Not looking for heavy or severe weather. But, will keep an eye on the situation in case a few strong storms develop.
Then another impulse will bring showers and thunderstorms back to the area on Monday into Tuesday - and a third chance (a bit more iffy on this last event) around Wednesday/Thursday. There are some timing issues on the mid-week system and just how much it will be able to develop. Stay tuned.
Rainfall totals between this weekend and the first week of November should be in the 1-2" range. Which would be welcome by all.
Temperatures will remain warm - above normal temperatures - for the next few days. High temperatures today through Monday will be in the upper 70s. Low temperatures will be in the 50s. Then behind the front next week expect windy and much cooler conditions.
The official 5 day rainfall forecast - this is broad brushed - but you get the general idea.
This is probably the most widespread rainfall over the nation that I have seen in months. This is good news for everyone wanting and wishing for rain.
As far as severe weather - the risk appears low right now for the next few days. The risk, if a risk for severe weather develops, would be on Sunday afternoon/evening (very slight chance) and again with the Monday/Tuesday system. Again, several days off and there is no reason to get overly excited this far out. Something to watch.
Here is the official severe weather outlook for Sunday - the Storm Prediction Center has placed us near a slight risk. I will keep an eye on it and update accordingly.
Looking ahead to Halloween weekend - a new storm system could bring more rain into our region around October 31st-November 3rd time period. Still a long way off. Will update in the coming days.
We are still in drought conditions - it has even intensified in some of our counties. Updated drought maps were issued yesterday and an updated drought forecast was also issued. Neither brought good news. Here are the latest maps.
National map:
Regional map above - click for larger image:
Kentucky drought map: Click image for larger view
Illinois drought map (above): Click for larger image
Finally the above map shows the forecast for drought conditions during the upcoming winter months. It appears we will be very close to the drought area. Our region is expected to receive above normal precipitation during the winter. So, this may spare us from a worsening drought situation.
NOAA also released their winter forecast today - their forecast pretty much matches up with what I have been saying the for the last month or two here on the blog. View previous posts from the end of August into September for those comments. This is good news because it means there is some agreement on how the upcoming winter months are expected to unfold. Of course none of the forecasts, including mine, are forecasting specific events - just the general overall pattern.
There seems to be quite a bit of agreement that we will have a milder than usual winter with above normal precipitation - rain, snow, sleet, ice, and possibly severe thunderstorms. Active.
Afternoon update: The maps below show the 850 mb wind fields, from the GFS model, for the big storm on Monday/Tuesday. There is some potential for a squall line across parts of the region. Still a bit early to make a call. Worth watching. Biggest threat may be east and northeast of our local counties.
The above image is a 500mb map - jet stream will be SCREAMING across the Ohio Valley. Impressive.
Image above is the 200mb map. Can you find the jet stream? :) The start of an active pattern.
Images are from www.wright-weather.com - great source for maps
- Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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