6 PM Update: Rain fell today over the eastern half of the area. Reports of 0.30-0.60" of rain (could be some higher amounts) in the Murray area - KY Lake area. Unfortunately some of us are still dry. I have recorded a few sprinkles. Definitely a disappoint - we needed this rain.
A few more showers and thunderstorms could develop overnight. An isolated strong storm is possible. The severe threat appears to be diminishing.
Severe threat overnight will be highest in east central MO into central IL (mostly west/northwest of our local counties) and down in TN - isolated tornadoes are possible in Tennessee tonight. South and east of our immediate local area.
Our next chance of rain will be on Tuesday morning - early. This will be with the frontal system moving in from the west. A squall line is expected to develop over Missouri, Iowa, and Illinois. This line will push east during the morning hours on Tuesday. Strong winds are possible/likely on Tuesday morning. Some severe storms can't be ruled out. This will include high winds and tornadoes. I STILL expect an upgrade from SPC on this situation. Stay tuned.
I expect wind advisories will be issued for Monday night and Tuesday for our region.
Previous discussion.
Is it just me or does it seem impossible that it is already the end of October? Where does the time go? Seems like we are skipping days.
Let's take a look at what is developing for our region in the coming days.
Sensible weather - bottom line
1. Chance for a few strong/severe storms this afternoon/tonight. As always - keep those weather radios on just in case we get a few warnings. There are a lot of clouds around the area - this is going to help limit the severe threat. Nonetheless - SPC has issued the risk zone - so we should keep an eye on any development.
Most widespread rain today will be over west KY and west TN. Less as you go west and northwest.
2. Windy - today through Tuesday. Late Monday night and Tuesday morning -very windy. Gusts over 40 mph likely.
3. Chance of strong storms on Monday night (very late) and Tuesday. A few severe storms possible. Wind being the primary concern - if a line of storms develops. Best chance for severe weather to our north and east (Illinois/Indiana/Ohio).
4. Another chance for storms around October 31-November 2nd. Halloween Eve still appears to be mostly dry. There is some data that indicates a few showers on Saturday night. We will just have to update accordingly. But, right now - going with dry for Saturday night.
Your seven day forecast from the NWS - click here
The Weather Observatory Local and regional radar - click here
Today's weather map - you may click on the map to enlarge it
As you can see there is a frontal system with waves of low pressure moving along it - just to our west. This front will help trigger a few showers and thunderstorms today and tonight/Monday morning. A few storms may be strong - isolated severe weather can't be ruled out. The Storm Prediction Center has now placed our region in a slight risk for severe storms later today and tonight/Monday morning (see map below).
We will also (as you can already see) be experiencing gusty winds today. Those in rural areas can expect wind gusts to 30 mph (also on area lakes). Elsewhere winds of 15-25 mph can be expected. Warm conditions today - once again. October will likely end up being above normal in the temperature department.
Rainfall totals today into Monday morning will range from 0.00-0.50". Heavier where thunderstorms form. Some areas may not receive any rain at all, unfortunately. This has been the case for months. Although I do expect most locations in our local area to receive some rainfall.
There will be a lull in the activity on Monday - late morning and afternoon. There could be a few showers or isolated thunderstorms on Monday afternoon and evening. But, not widespread.
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will arrive late Monday night and Tuesday morning. This will be ahead of a powerful storm system over Iowa and Minnesota. If we had more instability we would likely be looking at a severe weather outbreak. As it stands right now, though, I expect a line of showers and thunderstorms with the potential for high winds. I still believe the greatest risk for severe weather will be to the north and east of our immediate counties (talking only about the Monday night - Tuesday event). Areas in the Ohio Valley will likely be placed in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms.
Accompanying the frontal system will be strong/high winds. I would not be surprised to see gusts over 40 mph with the system - gradient winds (meaning winds outside of storms).
The best chance of precipitation on Monday night/Tuesday will be during the morning hours and then once again in the afternoon - especially areas to our north and east. Part of this depends on how fast the system moves.
As of right now the Storm Prediction Center has not issued a risk zone for the Monday night/Tuesday time period. However, I still believe they will upgrade to a slight risk. This is especially true over portions of Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, southern Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York. Mainly to our north and east - no real changes in my thinking on that from the last few days. We will see what they decide to do.
I am a bit more uncertain about the severe risk on Tuesday across areas to our south - TN/MS/AL. Lot of that will depend on instability and whether a solid squall line can form. Something to watch. Areas to our south and southeast may also deal with a few severe thunderstorms tonight and Monday morning. Isolated tornadoes possible.
The day one severe weather forecast for today - all areas in the green outline are in a slight risk. That means a few severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and tonight.
Outlook from SPC
The day 3 outlook - SPC has not issued a risk zone - the area in white is where they expect some thunderstorms. I do expect parts of that area to be upgraded to a slight risk (remember SPC has three risk levels - slight/moderate/high) in later outlooks.
Your five day rainfall forecast - this is issued by the NWS - it is a bit broad-brushed. But, you get the general idea of where the heaviest precipitation is expected.
One more map for you - this is the wind forecast for Tuesday morning. Expect high winds in our region. Click for larger view.
- Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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