Burn bans remain in effect across much of the region. Please don't burn debris, grass, or brush!
Good morning fellow weather enthusiasts! The change I (and others) have been forecasting for weeks is now on the charts. I was thinking after the 18th of this month - we had to push that off a little bit - but it is clear in all of the model data that significant pattern changes are in the works.
But, what you care about it the meaningful weather at your house. So - what does this pattern change mean for you and me? It means that widespread precipitation is likely to once again return to our region. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms (some possibly severe) are expected in the medium and and long range period.
Could this finally herald the end of our drought? We shall see. It is a bit early to make that call. The trend over the past three months has been for the systems to end up drier than forecast. This is certainly something we will have to keep an eye on in the coming days.
My thoughts for the fall were that the October through November time period would feature below normal precipitation with above normal temperatures. So far that has been fairly accurate - especially the precipitation aspect of the forecast. Temperatures this month are near normal in Paducah and above normal in Evansville (actually over a degree above normal in Evansville). Temperatures last month were well above normal.
First off today - we have a system over/near our region (see the weather map below). This has sparked a few showers (light) in our area. Nothing to write home about. Most of us will not experience any rainfall at all. What is new there? Nothing. Seems like that has been the case for months. Hit and miss - at best. Current radar is showing very little in the way of activity. A few showers are in the forecast today - but don't expect much if anything at all.
Your seven day forecast can be viewed by clicking here.
Today's weather map:
The above image is from the National Weather Service Office in Paducah, Kentucky. It sums up today nicely.
Now, let's take a look at the official 8-14 day forecast. Notice any changes from the last few weeks? Yes, precipitation chances appear to favor above normal probabilities. Finally! This first map will show you the probabilities of temperatures being above or below normal. Red/orange is above normal. Click map for larger view.
The map above indicates that odds favor above normal precipitation (the green area). This is a change from the last few months. We have been seeing week after week of below normal precipitation. So - we are on the right track!
So far - month to date - precipitation has been well below normal over our counties. The map below shows you just how much below normal we are - click image for larger view.
The first storm system, that will increase our chances for showers and thunderstorms, will arrive this weekend. This will be followed by at least 3 more storm systems as we move into the last week of October and the first week of November. Some of the storms could be strong - too early to make a call on severe weather. We will just have to monitor and update accordingly.
There are signs that Halloween weekend could be stormy and windy.
This will be the most significant pattern change since last spring. If the forecast verifies then it is possible that the entire region could experience 1-2" of rain between now and the end of the first week of November.
Temperatures will vary with each passing system - normal highs this time of the year are around 70 degrees and normal lows are around 40 degrees. We will see swings from above normal temperatures ahead of each system to below normal temperatures as the fronts pass through our region. The old roller-coaster temperature ride. Typical for the fall season.
Let's take a look at what the GFS is showing the next week - this is the system forecast to hit our region around Monday/Tuesday. Remember the GFS is a model forecast - this is one of many models. But - the signals are strong for a significant event near our region during that time frame. This could mean severe thunderstorms - still too early to make a call. But - some of the maps that I look at on a daily basis are certainly interesting. Click images for larger views. These maps are from www.wright-weather.com
This above map are the winds at the 850 mb level (above the surface). Strong winds - this is one ingredient that we look for when it comes to severe thunderstorm formation.
The map above shows winds even higher up - very strong jet stream crossing our region. Another signal for strong or severe thunderstorms.
The map above indicates helicity. How much spin will there be in the atmosphere. It indicates a signal for possible severe weather, as well. Stay tuned!
Finally the above map indicates the expected dew points. Moisture. See that tongue of higher dew-points that lift into our region? That indicates there will be fuel for the storms.
Current model data indicates a risk for severe weather - especially on Monday into Wednesday of next week somewhere in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Still a bit too far out for specifics. If the current data were to verify then we would have to think about discussing a tornado threat in the Tennessee Valley.
If this pattern change holds then perhaps November will be more active and we can finally start thinking about moving out of these drought conditions.
Let's check in on the raging La Nina - this is an impressive map! All of the blue areas indicate below normal water temperatures. Click map for larger image.
This is one of the faster developing La Nina's on record. It could prove to be a big player in what we are to expect this coming winter. Stay tuned!
Reminder: Don't forget to change the batteries in your NOAA Weather Radios. Fall severe season is upon us - winter, as well.
- Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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