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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here.
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts...
Remainder of tonight - Thursday night: A few clouds. Above normal temperatures. Lows: in the 73-76 degree range | Wind: Calm. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees. Precipitation probability - 5%
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Watches and warnings - click here
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Watches and warnings - click here
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Friday: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. A few storms will produce locally heavy rain and frequent lightning. Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures.
Highs: in the 88-92 degree range. | Heat index: Values - 98-104 degrees | Wind: South winds at 5 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 89 degrees. Precipitation probability - 30% Heat safety advice and information - click here
Friday night: Partly cloudy with a few thunderstorms. A few storms will produce locally heavy rain and frequent lightning. Above normal temperatures.
Lows: around 73-76 degrees | Wind: South winds at 5 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees. Precipitation probability - 30%
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Saturday: A few clouds. Scattered thunderstorms again possible. Locally heavy rain and frequent lightning with any storms that do form. Near normal temperatures.
Highs: around 88-93 degrees | Heat index: around 98-102 degrees | Wind: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 89 degrees. Precipitation probability - 30%Heat safety advice and information - click here
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Saturday night: Partly cloudy and mild. A few thunderstorms possible. Any storms that form could produce locally heavy downpours and frequent lightning. Above normal temperatures.
Lows: around 74 degrees | Wind: Southerly winds at 5 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees. Precipitation probability - 30%-
Sunday: Partly cloudy. A few scattered thunderstorms. Any storms that form could produce locally heavy downpours and frequent lightning. Warm. Near normal temperatures.
Highs: around 88-93 degrees | Heat index: In the 98-102 degree range | Wind: Variable winds at 5-10 mph - Normal highs for this time of the year are around 89 degrees. Precipitation probability - 20%Heat safety advice and information - click here
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Sunday night: Partly cloudy and mild. Above normal temperatures.
Lows: around 75 degrees | Wind: Southerly winds at 5 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees. Precipitation probability - 5%.
Monday: Mostly sunny - hot and humid. Above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 95-100 degrees | Heat index: In the 100-110 degree range | Wind: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph - Normal highs for this time of the year are around 89 degrees. Precipitation probability - 5%Heat safety advice and information - click here
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Adjusted thunderstorm chances as a front attempts to push into our region. We find ourselves on the boundary between the high pressure ridge and the NW flow. Nothing new on that subject - we keep bouncing between the two. The heat has been winning out more often than not this summer.
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Heat safety advice and information - click here .
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for the next 48 hours...
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.or
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Friday: A few scattered thunderstorms. Thunderstorms that do occur this time of the year can produce cloud to ground lightning, heavy rain in short periods of time, and gusty winds.
Friday: A few scattered thunderstorms. Thunderstorms that do occur this time of the year can produce cloud to ground lightning, heavy rain in short periods of time, and gusty winds.
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Friday night: A few scattered thunderstorms. Thunderstorms that do occur this time of the year can produce cloud to ground lightning, heavy rain in short periods of time, and gusty winds.
.Saturday: A few scattered thunderstorms. Thunderstorms that do occur this time of the year can produce cloud to ground lightning, heavy rain in short periods of time, and gusty winds.
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Saturday night: A few scattered thunderstorms. Thunderstorms that do occur this time of the year can produce cloud to ground lightning, heavy rain in short periods of time, and gusty winds.
.Sunday: A few scattered thunderstorms. Thunderstorms that do occur this time of the year can produce cloud to ground lightning, heavy rain in short periods of time, and gusty winds.
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Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Here are the graphics for the coming days. Remember the orange area represents the slight risk (that is what the Storm Prediction Center calls it - not my favorite choice of wording) area for severe thunderstorms. The orange area means that severe thunderstorms will be possible but will most likely not produce widespread severe weather. The yellow area represents that areas where some thunderstorms will likely occur - but will remain, for the most part, below severe limits. A severe storm is one that produces winds of at least 58 mph and quarter size hail or larger. And/or tornadoes.
You can learn more about lightning safety by clicking here.
Here are the graphics for the coming days. Remember the orange area represents the slight risk (that is what the Storm Prediction Center calls it - not my favorite choice of wording) area for severe thunderstorms. The orange area means that severe thunderstorms will be possible but will most likely not produce widespread severe weather. The yellow area represents that areas where some thunderstorms will likely occur - but will remain, for the most part, below severe limits. A severe storm is one that produces winds of at least 58 mph and quarter size hail or larger. And/or tornadoes.
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No organized severe weather in our region is currently forecast - so I didn't post the maps. You can view the most up to date graphics, though, by clicking here.
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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The map you see below can be viewed by clicking on the watch and warnings map links above. The maps are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States - again this map is a sample map. To view the actual interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: The summer weather that we have experienced for the last few weeks will continue into the medium range. The high pressure ridge that we have been talking about for the past month or two will continue to dominate our weather pattern. This means hot weather will continue.
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Temperatures over the weekend will be above normal at night and near normal during the day. Much above normal temperatures will once again return on Monday.
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Several pieces of energy will push through the region over the next couple of days. This will help spark some showers and thunderstorms. Organized severe weather is not anticipated. However, thunderstorms that do form could produce locally heavy rain and frequent lightning. If you have outdoor plans over the next few days you might want to check radar before leaving..
The overall pattern will remain the same through next week. .
A tropical system, in the Gulf of Mexico, will move ashore in Texas on Friday and Saturday. This will bring much needed rainfall to portions of southern and central Texas. See the graphics below for the forecast track of Don..
Here are all of the record highs and lows for the past week. Quite a few record highs - especially along the east coast of the United States..
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Heat safety advice and information - click here
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Significant to major flooding is likely to continue across the Missouri Valley in the coming weeks - latest river information - click here..
To follow the flood information along the Missouri River - click here for a special Facebook page that has been made for those concerned.
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You can read more about the summer flood threat by clicking HERE
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To view our interactive river map - click here. The areas in purple and red are experiencing significant flooding issues.
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River Forecast Stages - Click Here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 72 hours. Keep in mind that during the summer months heavy thunderstorms can produce excessive amounts of rain in a short period of time. This map is to give you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Some areas during the summer months will pick up very little precipitation while neighboring areas receive quite a bit. Thus is the nature of thunderstorms and the summer pattern.
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If you would like to view the 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour maps then click here.
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Again keep in mind that some areas could pick up 1-2" of rain (over the next few days) in a short amount of time from scattered thunderstorms.
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I have added thunderstorm probabilities to the web-site - you can click hour by hour and see where the best chances for thunderstorms will exist. Here is the link - you can also choose your own region by clicking on a state.
ALSO NOW AVAILABLE - Six hour probability precipitation maps.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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Remember you can now view all of the temperature graphics (that you see below) - and more - by clicking here
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Below image - Low temperatures for Friday morning
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Below image - High temperatures for Friday afternoon.
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Below image - Low temperatures for Saturday morning.
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Let's also take a look (the map below) at the expected heat index for tomorrow afternoon. You can view this map for other days by clicking here. Remember - the heat index is what the temperature feels like to your body when the temperature and humidity are combined. Heat index calculator can be viewed by clicking here.
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Heat index values will not be nearly as bad as last week. Some good news in the mix.
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Also the UV forecast for those interested - click here
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Heat safety advice and information - click here
How much above or below normal will high temperatures be tomorrow?
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The map below shows you the departure from normal highs (normal highs are around 82-85 degrees). This gives you a general idea of the type of weather pattern we are in. Warmer than normal or cooler than normal?
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For example if the normal high is 80 degrees and the actual high is 90 degrees then we would be 10 degrees above normal. You can find this map on the web-site, as well - click here.
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First map is for Friday and then the Saturday-Monday maps. Broken record? Apparently - we just can't shake the warmer than normal weather this summer.
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These are the record highs and lows for July 25th through July 27th, 2011. A smattering of records - but nothing unusual. It is summer! The purple dots are record low temperatures and the red dots are record high temperatures. To view the most up to date maps - with details on each record high and low - click here.
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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A tropical system will push towards Texas over the next 24-48 hours. This system will spread some showers and a few heavy thunderstorms/rain into southern Texas. Widespread heavy rain is not forecast, unfortunately. This will do little to help the drought. Track Don here.
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You can view satellite images of the tropics by clicking here - we have a variety of satellite images available on the Weather Observatory web-site.
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Latest Official National Hurricane Center Tropical Outlook - click here.
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You can see from the maps (over the last weeks worth of posting) that a large chunk of real estate to our south and west is experiencing drought conditions. You can view these maps by clicking here, as well.
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Here is the Palmer Drought Index. Most of our region is in the normal category. The drought continues to our south and southwest..
You can learn more about the current drought by visiting this Climate Prediction Center website - click here.
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You can now view the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast maps for temperature and precipitation! Maps are available by clicking here.
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You can see from these maps that above normal temperatures are forecast to continue for the medium range and long range. Seems like a broken record.
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The orange and red areas on the map indicate where temperatures are expected to be above normal - this is a probability chart - the deeper the orange and red the better chance for above normal temperatures..
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Below is the precipitation forecast for the next six to ten days. We see that the probabilities do favor above normal precipitation in and near our region. Perhaps some hope for a little more rain..
1. Long range indicates more hot weather next week. We will be fairly close to the NW flow boundary - this means that there will at least be a few chances for showers and thunderstorms over the coming 1-2 week period. We will monitor the path of the tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico as it moves into Texas.
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-sitehttp://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page and you can follow along - also please pass the link along to your friends.
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Don't forget that our friends at the Paducah, Kentucky US National Weather Service Office now has a Facebook page, as well! Click here and then hit LIKE at the top of their page.
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management now has a Facebook page? This is a great way to stay in touch with local officials during and before a natural disaster. Here is their page - hit LIKE at the top of the button.
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You can also find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson.
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson---
"We don't control the weather - we just predict it"
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McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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I send out emails 2-4 days in advance of widespread severe weather episodes. Basically this is a "heads up" email. If you would like to subscribe then click here.
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