Your Hometown Weather: July 14th-16th Forecast - warm

Thursday-Saturday Forecast - July 14th and 16th

This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer

---

This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here

Remainder of tonight - Wednesday night: Partly cloudy - a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy downpours if thunderstorms develop. Severe weather risk is very low. Above normal temperatures. Lows: in the 68-73 degree range | Wind: East winds at 5 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.
.
Watches and warnings - click here
-

Thursday: Partly cloudy with a few showers and storms. Especially over the southern part of the area - closer to the MO/AR border and KY/TN border. Near normal temperatures.

Highs: in the 85-88 degree range. | Heat index: Values - 88-90 degrees | Wind: East winds at 5 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.

Thursday night: Partly cloudy. Warm. Mild. Above normal temperatures.

Lows: around 70-74 degrees | Wind: Northeast winds at 5 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Above normal temperatures.

Highs: around 89-94 degrees | Heat index: around 92-97 degrees | Wind: East winds at 10 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.

Friday night: Mostly clear. Above normal temperatures.

Lows: around 72 degrees | Wind: Southerly winds at 5 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.

Saturday: Mostly sunny and hot. Above normal temperatures.

Highs: around 91-96 degrees | Heat index: In the 95-100 degree range - locally higher | Wind: Southerly winds at 10 mph - Normal highs for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.
-

Not too many changes - pattern continues to flip between hot and humid to cloudy and thunderstorms. We have been on this train for the last few weeks - month. Appears to continue into the near term. Next heat wave will arrive this weekend into next week. Once again this should be broken by a few periods of thunderstorms next week.

Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here

Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local area
Click Here

---

----
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for the next 48 hours...

For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.

Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here

Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. Thunderstorms will be possible

.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. A few thunderstorms will be possible

Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.

.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.

Friday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.

.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.

You can learn more about lightning safety by clicking here.

.
Here are the graphics for the coming days. Remember the orange area represents the slight risk (that is what the Storm Prediction Center calls it - not my favorite choice of wording) area for severe thunderstorms. The orange area means that severe thunderstorms will be possible but will most likely not produce widespread severe weather. The yellow area represents that areas where some thunderstorms will likely occur - but will remain, for the most part, below severe limits. A severe storm is one that produces winds of at least 58 mph and quarter size hail or larger. And/or tornadoes.

See graphic at link - not expecting organized severe weather in our local counties.

Wednesday nights severe weather outlook graphic. Remember that these maps are updated several times a day - so check the main link here for the latest outlooks.

To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here

---

All other states- Click Here

.
HEADLINE: After several days of extremely muggy/warm conditions we experienced a period of heavy thunderstorms on Tuesday night. Several reports of wind damage were received over southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and western Kentucky. Flash flooding was also a problem. Rainfall totals of 1-3" were commonplace over southern Illinois and southwest Indiana - western Kentucky, as well. Rainfall totals were in the 1-2" range over parts of southeast Missouri.

Tonight and Thursday will bring a few more showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather risk is very low. Better chance that if thunderstorms do form they will produce locally heavy rain and lightning. Frequent lightning in some cases.

After the rain chances end on Thursday we will see temperatures begin to rebound into the 90s on Friday into the weekend. Temperatures will once again be hot and humid this weekend into next week. Additional heat advisories may have to be issued at some point. For now - we will enjoy the temporary break.

As you know, if you have been reading the blog, I abandoned any hope of below normal temperatures for July. It appears the above normal temperatures will continue for the next few weeks. Whether we see a break in August will have to be revisited in the coming weeks.

Let's take a look at the past weeks worth of storm reports - this time of year is notorious for high wind reports. The orange dots are wind damage/high wind reports. Tall thunderstorms - lot of energy. You can view all of the details on these storm reports by visiting the web-site here
.

Significant to major flooding will continue on portions of the Mississippi River and Missouri River basins. This will be a long summer of flooding for some areas. We are also concerned that the Ohio River will continue to back up. This could cause flooding over parts of southern IL and western KY. Stay tuned.

We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here

The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.

A few more thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday night into Thursday - scattered in nature. The better chance on Thursday will be over the southern half of the region. If you are out camping then you will want to monitor radar for the potential of a few storms with frequent lightning and gusty winds. Locally heavy rainfall, as well. Otherwise conditions will be warm and winds will be light.
.

-----------------------------

Significant to major flooding is likely to continue across the Missouri Valley in the coming weeks - latest river information - click here.
.
To follow the flood information along the Missouri River - click here for a special Facebook page that has been made for those concerned.

We are going to have to monitor the current pattern - these mesoscale thunderstorm complexes that keep moving through the region can produce heavy rainfall. This will cause rivers to rise even further.

The Ohio River is starting to back up because of the high water levels on the Mississippi River. This is going to be a concern for quite some time to come (perhaps WELL into the summer months). Those living along rivers should monitor updated forecasts.

You can read more about the summer flood threat by clicking HERE

To view the interactive river map below - click here. The areas in purple and red are experiencing significant flooding issues.

River Forecast Stages - Click Here

Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 120 hours. Keep in mind that during the summer months heavy thunderstorms can produce excessive amounts of rain in a short period of time. This map is to give you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Some areas during the summer months will pick up very little precipitation while neighboring areas receive quite a bit. Thus is the nature of thunderstorms and the summer pattern.

If you would like to view the 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour maps then click here.

I have thunderstorm probabilities available on the web-site - you can click hour by hour and see where the best chances for thunderstorms will exist. Here is the link - you can also choose your own region by clicking on a state.

ALSO NOW AVAILABLE - Six hour probability precipitation maps.
.

You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.

Remember you can now view all of the temperature graphics (that you see below) - and more - by clicking here

Below image - Low temperatures for Thursday morning

Below image - High temperatures for Thursday afternoon.

Below image - Low temperatures for Friday morning

Below image - High temperatures for Friday afternoon

Below image - High temperatures for Saturday morning

Below image - High temperatures for Saturday afternoon

Let's also take a look (the map below) at the expected heat index for tomorrow afternoon. You can view this map for other days by clicking here. Remember - the heat index is what the temperature feels like to your body when the temperature and humidity are combined. Heat index calculator can be viewed by clicking here.

Thursday - Friday - Saturday images - you can see we will once again be warming up - remember these are heat index values - what the temperature will feel like to your skin.

Also the UV forecast for those interested - click here

Heat safety advice and information - click here

How much above or below normal will high temperatures be tomorrow?

The map below shows you the departure from normal highs (normal highs are around 82-85 degrees). This gives you a general idea of the type of weather pattern we are in. Warmer than normal or cooler than normal?

For example if the normal high is 80 degrees and the actual high is 90 degrees then we would be 10 degrees above normal. You can find this map on the web-site, as well - click here.

First map is for Thursday and then the Friday and Saturday maps - you can see we once again flirt between the above normal temperatures and the below normal temperatures.

666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666

These are the record highs and lows for July 11th through July 12th, 2011. The purple dots are record low temperatures and the red dots are record high temperatures. To view the most up to date maps - with details on each record high and low - click here.

Let's take a look at all of the records from the past week - more record highs than record lows. It has been a warm week.

We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
---
We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
---
--------------------

No tropical weather is forecast for the next 24 hours.
.
You can view satellite images of the tropics by clicking here - we have a variety of satellite images available on the Weather Observatory web-site.

Latest Official National Hurricane Center Tropical Outlook - click here.

--------------------
.

.
You can see from the maps (over the last weeks worth of posting) that a large chunk of real estate to our south and west is experiencing drought conditions. You can view these maps by clicking here, as well.
.
Below it the crop moisture Index - the tale of two cities. WET and DRY - flood and drought. Areas to our south and west are in serious drought conditions. About the only thing that could break their drought would be some tropical storms and/or hurricanes. Some areas have not received rain in months. Yes - months.
.

You can see on the Palmer Drought Index that our region is wet! No surprise after the recent thunderstorms. Here in Massac County we have picked up 10-12" of rain over the last month.

The drought is knocking on our door - if you remember the summer forecast called for this to happen - close close close call between wet and dry conditions in our region. So far the rain is winning. Let's hope the drought does not continue to creep towards our counties.

You can learn more about the current drought by visiting this Climate Prediction Center website - click here.
.

---

--
You can now view the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast maps for temperature and precipitation! Maps are available by clicking here.
.
.
You can see from these maps that above normal temperatures are forecast to continue for the medium range. Just can't shake the above normal temperatures.

The orange and red areas on the map indicate where temperatures are expected to be above normal - this is a probability chart - the deeper the orange and red the better chance for above normal temperatures.

Warm! I don't see any significant changes in the pattern - set-up appears similar to the last 2-4 weeks. Rounds of hot weather - with periods of storms from time to time. At least it is raining and we are not in drought.

1. Above normal temperatures to continue. Can't seem to shake them. The pattern keeps repeating - hot hot - thunderstorms - hot hot - thunderstorms. We go back and forth. That will continue into the near term.

To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here

---

All other states- Click Here

For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php

You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page and you can follow along - also please pass the link along to your friends.

Don't forget that our friends at the Paducah, Kentucky US National Weather Service Office now has a Facebook page, as well! Click here and then hit LIKE at the top of their page.

The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management now has a Facebook page? This is a great way to stay in touch with local officials during and before a natural disaster. Here is their page - hit LIKE at the top of the button.

You can also find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson

.
---

Meteorologist Beau Dodson
"We don't control the weather - we just predict it"
.
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management

--------------------

I send out emails 2-4 days in advance of widespread severe weather episodes. Basically this is a "heads up" email. If you would like to subscribe then click here.

---

This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service!

....

July 7th and 8th Weather Outlook

Thursday and Friday Forecast - July 7th and 8th

This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer

---

This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here

Remainder of tonight - Wednesday night: Isolated showers and thunderstorms - anyone caught under those storms can expect brief heavy rain and frequent lightning - otherwise partly cloudy. Near normal to above normal temperatures. Lows: in the 68-70 degree range | Wind: Northeast winds at 5 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.
-

Thursday: Partly sunny. A good chance for showers and heavy thunderstorm. Frequent lightning with storms that do form. Gusty winds will also be possible with a chance for a few severe storms in the region - especially over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Near normal temperatures.

Highs: in the 85-88 degree range. | Heat index: Values - 88-92 degrees | Wind: Southwest winds at 10 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.

Thursday night: Partly cloudy. A good chance for heavy thunderstorms. Near normal temperatures.

Lows: around 68-70 degrees | Wind: Northeasterly winds at 5 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.

Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy. A chance for a few showers or thunderstorms. Near normal to below normal temperatures.

Highs: around 86 degrees | Heat index: around 86 degrees | Wind: East winds at 10 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.

Friday night: Partly cloudy. Near normal temperatures.

Lows: around 67-70 degrees | Wind: Easterly winds at 10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Near normal to below normal temperatures.

Highs: around 85 degrees | Heat index: In the 85-87 degree range | Wind: Easterly winds at 10-15 mph - Normal highs for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.
-

Temperatures will be near normal over the next few days - perhaps even a bit below normal. Timing thunderstorm chances will be difficult - the scattered nature of the events. Will watch for a possible complex of storms coming out of Missouri on Thursday and Thursday night. A few severe storms again possible.

Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here

Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local area
Click Here

---

----
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for the next 48 hours...

For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.

Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here

Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. A few thunderstorms will be possible. Frequent lightning and heavy downpours are always possible this time of the year.

.
Thursday: There will be a risk for a few severe thunderstorms with large hail and winds above 58 mph. Tornado risk appears low. Heavy rain. Frequent lightning is a concern with any storms that form.

Thursday night: There will be a risk for a few severe thunderstorms with large hail and winds above 58 mph. Tornado risk appears low but not zero. Heavy rain. Frequent lightning is a concern with any storms that form.

.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. A few thunderstorms will be possible.

You can learn more about lightning safety by clicking here.

Wednesday night's severe weather outlook graphic. Remember that these maps are updated several times a day - so check the main link here for the latest outlooks.

Thursday's severe weather outlook - you can see some of our counties are included in the Thursday outlook. Remember that these maps are updated several times a day - so check the main link here for the latest outlooks.

Then here is the Friday's outlook (below). Remember that these maps are updated several times a day - so check the main link here for the latest outlooks.

.
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here

---

All other states- Click Here

.
HEADLINE: Warm temperatures continue across our region. Summer is living up to its name. I guess I might have to abandon the idea that July will end up with below normal temperatures. The long range forecast (see below) also indicates above normal temperatures will continue. June was above normal, as well. With summer almost half over - it appears that at least the first HALF of summer will end up being above normal in the temperature department.

The above normal precipitation forecast has verified for most of the region. The pattern of thunderstorms and thunderstorm complexes rolling in from the northwest has been the rule since the middle of June. This has brought some parts of the region rainfall totals in excess of 10 inches.

Over the last few days we have witnessed a number of thunderstorms develop in the heat of the day. These storms cause brief heavy downpours and FREQUENT lightning. I have seen some amazing numbers on the lightning count data. Over a thousand hits in some counties. Thankfully there have only been a couple of severe weather reports with the storms.

Temperatures over the next few days will average near normal to perhaps a bit below normal (see below). Then above normal temperatures will return by the end of the weekend or early next week. Once again we find ourselves torn between the heat ridge to the southwest and the cooler side of the front draped across our region. I should have went with riding that border for the summer forecast.

The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.

With on and off storm chances in the forecast, campers should be aware of the potential for gusty winds and lightning. Frequent lightning is the main concern - for campers and boaters. Boaters should use caution in the event thunderstorms approach their area. A few of the storms on Thursday could also produce gusty winds and hail.
.

-----------------------------

To view the interactive river map below - click here. The areas in purple and red are experiencing significant flooding issues.

River Forecast Stages - Click Here

Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 72 hours. Keep in mind that during the summer months heavy thunderstorms can produce excessive amounts of rain in a short period of time. This map is to give you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Some areas during the summer months will pick up very little precipitation while neighboring areas receive quite a bit. Thus is the nature of thunderstorms and the summer pattern.

If you would like to view the 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour maps then click here.

I also now have thunderstorm probabilities available on the web-site - you can click hour by hour and see where the best chances for thunderstorms will exist. Here is the link - you can also choose your own region by clicking on a state.

ALSO NOW AVAILABLE - Six hour probability precipitation maps.
.

You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.

Remember you can now view all of the temperature graphics (that you see below) - and more - by clicking here

Below image - Low temperatures for Thursday morning

Below image - High temperatures for Thursday afternoon.

Below image - Low temperatures for Friday morning

Below image - High temperatures for Friday afternoon

Heat index values won't be a big issue on Thursday. They will mainly be in the upper 80s and lower 90s. If clouds dominate then middle to upper 80s would be the rule.

Also the UV forecast for those interested - click here

Heat safety advice and information - click here

How much above or below normal will high temperatures be tomorrow?

For example if the normal high is 80 degrees and the actual high is 90 degrees then we would be 10 degrees above normal. You can find this map on the web-site, as well - click here.

First map is for Thursday and the second map is for Friday.

666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666

These are the record highs and lows for July 4th and July 5th, 2011. Quite a few record highs scattered around the central United States. The purple dots are record low temperatures and the red dots are record high temperatures. To view the most up to date maps - with details on each record high and low - click here.

No tropical weather is forecast for the next 24 hours. We will be watching a system in the Bahamas. It should move towards Florida or off the east coast of Florida. This system can be seen on satellite - over the Cuba region.
.
You can view satellite images of the tropics by clicking here - we have a variety of satellite images available on the Weather Observatory web-site.
.

Latest Official National Hurricane Center Tropical Outlook - click here.

--------------------
.

.
You can see from the maps (over the last weeks worth of posting) that a large chunk of real estate to our south and west is experiencing drought conditions. You can view these maps by clicking here, as well.
.
Here is the crop moisture index. Wet conditions across parts of our region - however rain is still needed across parts of southern Missouri down into Arkansas and Tennessee. Of course the severe drought continues to our south and west.

.
You can learn more about the current drought by visiting this Climate Prediction Center website - click here.
.

---

--
You can now view the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast maps for temperature and precipitation! Maps are available by clicking here.

1. As you can see in the above maps - above normal temperatures are in the forecast for the mid and long range period. This will wreck havoc with the forecast for the summer - which was for above normal precipitation (which has happened) and below normal temperatures (which has not happened).

2. On and off thunderstorm chances in the coming days - Saturday appears as if it will bring dry conditions. Some good news for those with outdoor plans.

---

All other states- Click Here

For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php

You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page and you can follow along - also please pass the link along to your friends.

Don't forget that our friends at the Paducah, Kentucky US National Weather Service Office now has a Facebook page, as well! Click here and then hit LIKE at the top of their page.

You can also find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson

.
---

Meteorologist Beau Dodson
"We don't control the weather - we just predict it"
.
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management

--------------------

I send out emails 2-4 days in advance of widespread severe weather episodes. Basically this is a "heads up" email. If you would like to subscribe then click here.

---

This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service!

....

Your Hometown Weather

July 14th-16th Forecast - warm - a few storm chances.

July 7th and 8th Weather Outlook

No comments:

Post a Comment

Back to the Weather Observatory

July 14th-16th Forecast - warm - a few storm chances.

July 7th and 8th Weather Outlook

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe To Beau's weather

Back to the Weather Observatory