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This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer ---
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here Remainder of tonight - Monday night: Heat advisory - An increase in clouds late. A chance for thunderstorms developing over parts of central and southern Illinois into southern Indiana and northwest Kentucky - late. Very warm. Above normal temperatures. Lows: in the 76-80 degree range | Wind: Southwest winds at 5 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.
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Watches and warnings - click here
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Watches and warnings - click here
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Tuesday: Heat advisory - Partly sunny with a chance for heavy thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms could produce heavy rain and frequent lightning. A few storms may be severe with winds above 58 mph. Above normal temperatures.
Highs: in the 92-96 degree range. | Heat index: Values - 99-115 degrees - locally higher | Wind: South winds at 5 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 88 degrees. .
Tuesday night: Partly cloudy with a chance for thunderstorms. Warm. Some thunderstorms could produce heavy rain and frequent lightning. Mild. Above normal temperatures.Lows: around 73-78 degrees | Wind: Southwesterly winds at 5 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.
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Wednesday: Partly sunny with a chance for thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms could produce heavy rain and frequent lightning. Above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 92 degrees | Heat index: around 100-108 degrees | Wind: West winds at 10 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.-
Wednesday night: Partly cloudy. A chance for a thunderstorm. Above normal temperatures.
Lows: around 72 degrees | Wind: Southerly winds at 10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.-
Thursday: Partly sunny - not as hot. A chance for a thunderstorm. Above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 87-89 degrees | Heat index: In the 90-96 degree range - locally higher | Wind: Easterly winds at 10 mph - Normal highs for this time of the year are around 88 degrees. -
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Updated rain chances - we will move back into the NW flow on Tuesday and Wednesday as a front moves into the region - this means additional rounds of thunderstorms will be possible. Any thunderstorms that occur this time of the year can produce heavy rain and frequent lightning. Can't rule out a few severe thunderstorms - especially over Illinois and Indiana. Severe weather risk is low - but not zero.
Temperatures will continue to be hot. Had to raise temps a bit for overnight lows. Much above normal temperatures tonight.
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for the next 48 hours...
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.or
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
Monday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. Thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday morning over Illinois/Indiana.
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Tuesday: Thunderstorms will be possible. If any storms become severe then high winds would be the main concern. Locally heavy rain and frequent lightning will be possible with thunderstorms.
Tuesday: Thunderstorms will be possible. If any storms become severe then high winds would be the main concern. Locally heavy rain and frequent lightning will be possible with thunderstorms.
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Tuesday night: Thunderstorms will be possible. If any storms become severe then high winds would be the main concern. Locally heavy rain and frequent lightning will be possible with thunderstorms.
.Wednesday: Thunderstorms will be possible. Severe weather threat appears fairly low. If any storms become severe then high winds would be the main concern. Locally heavy rain and frequent lightning will be possible with thunderstorms.
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Wednesday night: A few thunderstorms possible. Severe weather threat appears to be low - will monitor and update if need be.
.Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Isolated thunderstorm possible.
You can learn more about lightning safety by clicking here.
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Here are the graphics for the coming days. Remember the orange area represents the slight risk (that is what the Storm Prediction Center calls it - not my favorite choice of wording) area for severe thunderstorms. The orange area means that severe thunderstorms will be possible but will most likely not produce widespread severe weather. The yellow area represents that areas where some thunderstorms will likely occur - but will remain, for the most part, below severe limits. A severe storm is one that produces winds of at least 58 mph and quarter size hail or larger. And/or tornadoes.
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Monday nights severe weather outlook graphic. Remember that these maps are updated several times a day - so check the main link here for the latest outlooks.
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Tuesday's severe weather outlook - Remember that these maps are updated several times a day - so check the main link here for the latest outlooks.
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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HEADLINE: Wow - the heat is on and on in a big way. Temperatures on Sunday soared into the 90s with heat index values ranging from 105-120 degrees across the region. The higher heat index values were found in areas near fields - countryside areas. Extremely uncomfortable readings. Remember the heat index is what the temperature feels like to your body.
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The medium and long range forecast continues to point towards mostly above normal temperatures. I abandoned the below normal temperature ship last week - for July. It just isn't happening. We are basically caught up in the heat ridge to our southwest - also being fueled by extreme drought conditions over Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Louisiana. Helping to bake the ground and warm temperatures. .
We will have a small break in the coming days as a cold front advances in from the north. This front will bring a chance for showers and locally heavy thunderstorms - especially on Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures will also moderate a bit on Thursday and Friday - instead of middle to upper 90s we can expect upper 80s to lower 90s. I guess we will take whatever relief we can muster. .
There will be a chance for a few severe thunderstorms on Tuesday - remember that by definition a severe thunderstorm contains winds about 58 mph and/or quarter size hail (or larger). Anytime you have thunderstorms this time of the year you can receive very heavy downpours and frequent lightning. High winds can also occur with thunderstorms. The tornado threat appears to be very low..
Rainfall totals from any thunderstorms that develop will vary from one county to the next. Recent thunderstorm events dropped 1-3" in some counties while neighboring counties were left bone dry. Not unusual during the summer months. .
Check out these heat index values from Monday afternoon - hot hot hot.
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Significant to major flooding will continue on portions of the Mississippi River and Missouri River basins. This will be a long summer of flooding for some areas. We are also concerned that the Ohio River will continue to back up. This could cause flooding over parts of southern IL and western KY. Stay tuned.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here .
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Significant to major flooding is likely to continue across the Missouri Valley in the coming weeks - latest river information - click here..
To follow the flood information along the Missouri River - click here for a special Facebook page that has been made for those concerned.
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We are going to have to monitor the current pattern - these mesoscale thunderstorm complexes that keep moving through the region can produce heavy rainfall. This will cause rivers to rise even further. .
The Ohio River is starting to back up because of the high water levels on the Mississippi River. This is going to be a concern for quite some time to come (perhaps WELL into the summer months). Those living along rivers should monitor updated forecasts.
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You can read more about the summer flood threat by clicking HERE
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To view the interactive river map below - click here. The areas in purple and red are experiencing significant flooding issues.
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River Forecast Stages - Click Here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 72 hours. Keep in mind that during the summer months heavy thunderstorms can produce excessive amounts of rain in a short period of time. This map is to give you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Some areas during the summer months will pick up very little precipitation while neighboring areas receive quite a bit. Thus is the nature of thunderstorms and the summer pattern.
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If you would like to view the 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour maps then click here.
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I have thunderstorm probabilities available on the web-site - you can click hour by hour and see where the best chances for thunderstorms will exist. Here is the link - you can also choose your own region by clicking on a state.
ALSO NOW AVAILABLE - Six hour probability precipitation maps.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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Remember you can now view all of the temperature graphics (that you see below) - and more - by clicking here
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Below image - Low temperatures for Tuesday morning
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Below image - High temperatures for Tuesday afternoon.
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Below image - Low temperatures for Wednesday morning
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Below image - High temperatures for Wednesday afternoon
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Let's also take a look (the map below) at the expected heat index for tomorrow afternoon. You can view this map for other days by clicking here. Remember - the heat index is what the temperature feels like to your body when the temperature and humidity are combined. Heat index calculator can be viewed by clicking here.
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Tuesday and Wednesday's images - remember these are heat index values - what the temperature will feel like to your skin.
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Also the UV forecast for those interested - click here
Heat safety advice and information - click here
How much above or below normal will high temperatures be tomorrow?
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The map below shows you the departure from normal highs (normal highs are around 82-85 degrees). This gives you a general idea of the type of weather pattern we are in. Warmer than normal or cooler than normal?
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For example if the normal high is 80 degrees and the actual high is 90 degrees then we would be 10 degrees above normal. You can find this map on the web-site, as well - click here.
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First map is for Tuesday and the second map is for Wednesday- you can see we once again flirt between the above normal temperatures and the below normal temperatures.
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These are the record highs and lows for July 8th through July 10th, 2011. The purple dots are record low temperatures and the red dots are record high temperatures. To view the most up to date maps - with details on each record high and low - click here.
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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No tropical weather is forecast for the next 24 hours.
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You can view satellite images of the tropics by clicking here - we have a variety of satellite images available on the Weather Observatory web-site.
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Here is a satellite view showing the disturbed weather south of Cuba
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Latest Official National Hurricane Center Tropical Outlook - click here.
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You can see from the maps (over the last weeks worth of posting) that a large chunk of real estate to our south and west is experiencing drought conditions. You can view these maps by clicking here, as well.
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Below it the Palmer Drought Index - the tale of two cities. WET and DRY - flood and drought.
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You can now view the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast maps for temperature and precipitation! Maps are available by clicking here.
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You can see from these maps that above normal temperatures are forecast to continue for the medium range. Just can't shake the above normal temperatures.
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The orange and red areas on the map indicate where temperatures are expected to be above normal - this is a probability chart - the deeper the orange and red the better chance for above normal temperatures..
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1. Above normal temperatures to continue. Can't seem to shake them. The pattern keeps repeating - hot hot - thunderstorms - hot hot - thunderstorms. We go back and forth. That will continue into the near term.
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-sitehttp://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page and you can follow along - also please pass the link along to your friends.
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Don't forget that our friends at the Paducah, Kentucky US National Weather Service Office now has a Facebook page, as well! Click here and then hit LIKE at the top of their page.
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management now has a Facebook page? This is a great way to stay in touch with local officials during and before a natural disaster. Here is their page - hit LIKE at the top of the button.
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You can also find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson.
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson---
"We don't control the weather - we just predict it"
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McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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I send out emails 2-4 days in advance of widespread severe weather episodes. Basically this is a "heads up" email. If you would like to subscribe then click here.
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This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service! .
July 7th and 8th Weather Outlook
Thursday and Friday Forecast - July 7th and 8th.
This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer ---
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here Remainder of tonight - Wednesday night: Isolated showers and thunderstorms - anyone caught under those storms can expect brief heavy rain and frequent lightning - otherwise partly cloudy. Near normal to above normal temperatures. Lows: in the 68-70 degree range | Wind: Northeast winds at 5 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.
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Thursday: Partly sunny. A good chance for showers and heavy thunderstorm. Frequent lightning with storms that do form. Gusty winds will also be possible with a chance for a few severe storms in the region - especially over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Near normal temperatures.
Highs: in the 85-88 degree range. | Heat index: Values - 88-92 degrees | Wind: Southwest winds at 10 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 88 degrees. .
Thursday night: Partly cloudy. A good chance for heavy thunderstorms. Near normal temperatures.Lows: around 68-70 degrees | Wind: Northeasterly winds at 5 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.
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Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy. A chance for a few showers or thunderstorms. Near normal to below normal temperatures.
Highs: around 86 degrees | Heat index: around 86 degrees | Wind: East winds at 10 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.-
Friday night: Partly cloudy. Near normal temperatures.
Lows: around 67-70 degrees | Wind: Easterly winds at 10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.-
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Near normal to below normal temperatures.
Highs: around 85 degrees | Heat index: In the 85-87 degree range | Wind: Easterly winds at 10-15 mph - Normal highs for this time of the year are around 88 degrees. -
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for the next 48 hours...
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.or
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. A few thunderstorms will be possible. Frequent lightning and heavy downpours are always possible this time of the year.
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Thursday: There will be a risk for a few severe thunderstorms with large hail and winds above 58 mph. Tornado risk appears low. Heavy rain. Frequent lightning is a concern with any storms that form.
Thursday: There will be a risk for a few severe thunderstorms with large hail and winds above 58 mph. Tornado risk appears low. Heavy rain. Frequent lightning is a concern with any storms that form.
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Thursday night: There will be a risk for a few severe thunderstorms with large hail and winds above 58 mph. Tornado risk appears low but not zero. Heavy rain. Frequent lightning is a concern with any storms that form.
.Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. A few thunderstorms will be possible.
You can learn more about lightning safety by clicking here.
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Here are the graphics for the coming days. Remember the orange area represents the slight risk (that is what the Storm Prediction Center calls it - not my favorite choice of wording) area for severe thunderstorms. The orange area means that severe thunderstorms will be possible but will most likely not produce widespread severe weather. The yellow area represents that areas where some thunderstorms will likely occur - but will remain, for the most part, below severe limits. A severe storm is one that produces winds of at least 58 mph and quarter size hail or larger. And/or tornadoes.
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Wednesday night's severe weather outlook graphic. Remember that these maps are updated several times a day - so check the main link here for the latest outlooks.
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Thursday's severe weather outlook - you can see some of our counties are included in the Thursday outlook. Remember that these maps are updated several times a day - so check the main link here for the latest outlooks.
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Then here is the Friday's outlook (below). Remember that these maps are updated several times a day - so check the main link here for the latest outlooks.
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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HEADLINE: Warm temperatures continue across our region. Summer is living up to its name. I guess I might have to abandon the idea that July will end up with below normal temperatures. The long range forecast (see below) also indicates above normal temperatures will continue. June was above normal, as well. With summer almost half over - it appears that at least the first HALF of summer will end up being above normal in the temperature department.
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The above normal precipitation forecast has verified for most of the region. The pattern of thunderstorms and thunderstorm complexes rolling in from the northwest has been the rule since the middle of June. This has brought some parts of the region rainfall totals in excess of 10 inches. .
Over the last few days we have witnessed a number of thunderstorms develop in the heat of the day. These storms cause brief heavy downpours and FREQUENT lightning. I have seen some amazing numbers on the lightning count data. Over a thousand hits in some counties. Thankfully there have only been a couple of severe weather reports with the storms. .
Temperatures over the next few days will average near normal to perhaps a bit below normal (see below). Then above normal temperatures will return by the end of the weekend or early next week. Once again we find ourselves torn between the heat ridge to the southwest and the cooler side of the front draped across our region. I should have went with riding that border for the summer forecast. .
Significant to major flooding will continue on portions of the Mississippi River and Missouri River basins. This will be a long summer of flooding for some areas. We are also concerned that the Ohio River will continue to back up. This could cause flooding over parts of southern IL and western KY. Stay tuned.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here .
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Significant to major flooding is likely to continue across the Missouri Valley in the coming weeks - latest river information - click here..
To follow the flood information along the Missouri River - click here for a special Facebook page that has been made for those concerned.
.
.
We are going to have to monitor the current pattern - these mesoscale thunderstorm complexes that keep moving through the region can produce heavy rainfall. This will cause rivers to rise even further. .
The Ohio River is starting to back up because of the high water levels on the Mississippi River. This is going to be a concern for quite some time to come (perhaps WELL into the summer months). Those living along rivers should monitor updated forecasts.
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To view the interactive river map below - click here. The areas in purple and red are experiencing significant flooding issues.
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River Forecast Stages - Click Here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 72 hours. Keep in mind that during the summer months heavy thunderstorms can produce excessive amounts of rain in a short period of time. This map is to give you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Some areas during the summer months will pick up very little precipitation while neighboring areas receive quite a bit. Thus is the nature of thunderstorms and the summer pattern.
.
If you would like to view the 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour maps then click here.
.
.
I also now have thunderstorm probabilities available on the web-site - you can click hour by hour and see where the best chances for thunderstorms will exist. Here is the link - you can also choose your own region by clicking on a state.
ALSO NOW AVAILABLE - Six hour probability precipitation maps.
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.
You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
.
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Remember you can now view all of the temperature graphics (that you see below) - and more - by clicking here
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Below image - Low temperatures for Thursday morning
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Below image - High temperatures for Thursday afternoon.
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Below image - Low temperatures for Friday morning
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Below image - High temperatures for Friday afternoon
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Let's also take a look (the map below) at the expected heat index for tomorrow afternoon. You can view this map for other days by clicking here. Remember - the heat index is what the temperature feels like to your body when the temperature and humidity are combined. Heat index calculator can be viewed by clicking here.
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Heat index values won't be a big issue on Thursday. They will mainly be in the upper 80s and lower 90s. If clouds dominate then middle to upper 80s would be the rule.
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Also the UV forecast for those interested - click here
Heat safety advice and information - click here
How much above or below normal will high temperatures be tomorrow?
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The map below shows you the departure from normal highs (normal highs are around 82-85 degrees). This gives you a general idea of the type of weather pattern we are in. Warmer than normal or cooler than normal?
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For example if the normal high is 80 degrees and the actual high is 90 degrees then we would be 10 degrees above normal. You can find this map on the web-site, as well - click here.
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First map is for Thursday and the second map is for Friday.
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These are the record highs and lows for July 4th and July 5th, 2011. Quite a few record highs scattered around the central United States. The purple dots are record low temperatures and the red dots are record high temperatures. To view the most up to date maps - with details on each record high and low - click here.
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
---
We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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No tropical weather is forecast for the next 24 hours. We will be watching a system in the Bahamas. It should move towards Florida or off the east coast of Florida. This system can be seen on satellite - over the Cuba region.
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You can view satellite images of the tropics by clicking here - we have a variety of satellite images available on the Weather Observatory web-site.
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Latest Official National Hurricane Center Tropical Outlook - click here.
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You can see from the maps (over the last weeks worth of posting) that a large chunk of real estate to our south and west is experiencing drought conditions. You can view these maps by clicking here, as well.
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Here is the crop moisture index. Wet conditions across parts of our region - however rain is still needed across parts of southern Missouri down into Arkansas and Tennessee. Of course the severe drought continues to our south and west.
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You can learn more about the current drought by visiting this Climate Prediction Center website - click here.
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You can now view the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast maps for temperature and precipitation! Maps are available by clicking here.
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1. As you can see in the above maps - above normal temperatures are in the forecast for the mid and long range period. This will wreck havoc with the forecast for the summer - which was for above normal precipitation (which has happened) and below normal temperatures (which has not happened).2. On and off thunderstorm chances in the coming days - Saturday appears as if it will bring dry conditions. Some good news for those with outdoor plans.
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
.
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-sitehttp://www.weather.gov/organization.php
.
You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page and you can follow along - also please pass the link along to your friends.
.
Don't forget that our friends at the Paducah, Kentucky US National Weather Service Office now has a Facebook page, as well! Click here and then hit LIKE at the top of their page.
.
The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management now has a Facebook page? This is a great way to stay in touch with local officials during and before a natural disaster. Here is their page - hit LIKE at the top of the button.
.
You can also find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson.
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson---
"We don't control the weather - we just predict it"
.
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
--------------------
I send out emails 2-4 days in advance of widespread severe weather episodes. Basically this is a "heads up" email. If you would like to subscribe then click here.
.
---
This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service! .
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