October 9, 2010: Beautiful weekend! Dry weather continues - watching a system

GOOD MORNING everyone! 

Your seven day forecast can be viewed by clicking here

Severe Weather Threat Level:

The severe weather threat level for our region over the next 5 days is near zero.  Remember that there are burn bans in effect for many counties in our region.  Numerous fires have been reported because of people throwing our cigarettes. 

Here is your morning weather map - our region is dominated by high pressure, once again, with a cold front to our west.  This front will push eastward in the coming days.  Little if any appreciable rain is expected with the front.  As always just click the image for a larger view.



National Weather Map - October 9th





















Wow - what a beautiful weekend.  I realize everyone is in need of rain, but you just can't beat this amazing streak of sunny days with seasonal temperatures.  Temperatures this morning dipped into the middle 40s and high temperatures today will reach into the 80s! 

The first week of October was mostly below normal in the temperature department.  However, we are now heading into a streak of above normal days.  October is a bit of a roller coaster month for temperatures.  Nothing unusual though.  Other than the lack of rain.

Let's take a quick look at the month to date (last 8 days) temperature departure map (below - click image for larger view).  This map shows you how much below normal (blue and purples are below normal) we have been in the temperature department.  A stark contrast from the past few months!





















The Paducah, Kentucky National Weather Service Office made the following graphic (below) - it seems to sum everything up nicely.  Click image for larger view.






















I am still watching a system around the 17th-24th time frame.  Somewhere in there.  Bit early to make a definite call on the exact date.  However, it does look at least somewhat promising for precipitation.  Unlike any of the systems we have had over the last few weeks.

Here is what one of the models (the GFS from http://www.wright-weather.com/ is indicating) is showing.  Remember this is just what one model thinks will happen. There are a lot of different versions of this and other models.  However, there has been some consistency in showing this storm.  So, let's cross our fingers that we finally see at least a little bit of rainfall.  It is our best hope - at this point.  Click on image for a larger view.






















I see they have all but removed the precipitation chances for this coming Sunday night through Tuesday time-frame.  No surprise there.  Could still be a shower or two along the cold front.  But moisture is severely lacking.  So - this front will not be a big deal.  Here is your official seven day forecast from the NWS - click here.

Let's take a quick look at just how much above normal high temperatures will be today into Monday - the images below show you the number of degrees above normal that our high temps are forecast to be - anything in the yellow - orange - reds - purple and whites would be above to well above normal.  The maps below are from http://www.wright-weather.com/  

Keep in mind that for October 9th our normal high temperature is around 74 degrees and our normal low temperatures are around 47 degrees.  By October 31st our normal high temperatures will have dropped to 64 and our normal low temperatures will be around 41 degrees (those are the averages - not what is forecast to occur).    But - that should give you an idea of the normal values.  Highs today will reach into the 80s - well above normal!

Today's high temperature departures - click image for larger view






















Sunday's high temperature departures (above) - click image for larger view



 
























We also have a little bit of weather in the tropics - it has been an extremely busy season (thankfully most of the storms have not hit the United States - although Mexico has not been so fortunate - and there were the  major east coast floods).  You can check out the current systems on the map by visiting the National Hurricane Center - click here.

- Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management

For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php

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