October 11, 2010: Paula forms in the Caribbean

October 11, 2010:

Another warm day (near record highs) on tap for our region.  Dry, as well.  Expect small rain chances this week - nothing significant or even worth talking about.  The drought continues to intensify.  Your seven day forecast - radar - and other can be viewed by clicking here.

As expected, Tropical Storm Paula has formed in the Caribbean.  This storm will push northward/northwestward over the coming days.  Paula is the 16th named storm in this active Atlantic hurricane season. 

There is considerable debate on the future track of Paula.  The system will be pushing a bit further away from land over the next 24-48 hours - this should allow Paula to intensify.  It is possible that Paula could become a hurricane in the coming days.  Steering currents are expected to weaken later this week - if Paula does not move ashore in Mexico then the storm will likely meander for several days.  Some of the data (see below maps) indicate that Paula could be pulled northward in connection with a trough moving through the central and eastern United States.  This is far from certain.  There are also indications that another system may form or that Paula may recurve in a loop type fashion - then move northwest into the Gulf of Mexico.  Lots to watch in the coming 10 day period.  Stay tuned.

The official track forecast:  Click image for large view.






















Satellite view of Tropical Storm Paula


















Some of the potential tracks for Paula (computer generated).  Click image for larger view.



















- Meteorologist Beau Dodson McCracken County
Office of Emergency Management

For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php

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