Some scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon into Monday afternoon - right now I suspect they will be widely scattered in nature - perhaps isolated is a better word. A few boundaries and impulses will move through the region over the next 24-48 hours. It is likely that these will produce at least a small chance for some storms.
The most intense storms could produce nickel to golf ball size hail and high winds - lot of lightning, as well. Pockets of 1-3" of rain will be possible if you find yourself under a heavy storm - again these will be scattered in nature - especially over part of southeast MO into southern IL and NW KY on Sunday afternoon.
Temperatures over the next 1-3 days will be somewhat impacted by cloud cover. Depending on the amount of clouds there could be a reduction in temperatures by 2-4 degrees.
It still appears that temperatures will be 100-105 across the region on Sunday afternoon and in the 98-102 range on Monday and Tuesday.
Another intensification of the heat wave is possible Thursday into this coming weekend - something I will be keeping an eye on. Either way the hot weather is here to stay for awhile.
Updated forecasts below
June 28th-July 3rd 2012
Thursday through Tuesday update
I am in summer mode - that means I try to update every other day or every 2-3 days. If the weather is active then I will come in and update the forecast as needed. I will also note an update at the very top of the blog update.
For more frequent updates check visit my weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
This blog is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
.
.
Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
Wind: West and southwest winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Thursday: Very hot and dry - drought conditions. An assortment of heat advisories, special weather statements, and other information has been issued for our region - for details click here
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 90s to lower 100s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: West and southwest winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Thursday night: Mostly clear and warmer.
Wind: Westerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Friday: Mostly sunny and very hot. Drought conditions. An assortment of heat advisories, special weather statements, and other information has been issued for our region - for details click here
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 100s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: Westerly at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: Westerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
.
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: Rainfall will be zero in most areas - a few spots, lucky enough to find themselves under a thunderstorm, could pick up a heavy downpour.
Confidence in this forecast is high
Sunday night: Partly cloudy skies and warm. Very isolated chance for a thunderstorm.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower to middle 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: West - southwest winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: Rainfall will be zero in most areas - a few spots, lucky enough to find themselves under a thunderstorm, could pick up a heavy downpour.
Confidence in this forecast is medium
Monday: Partly cloudy skies - hot - drought conditions. Very isolated thunderstorm possible. An assortment of heat advisories, special weather statements, and other information has been issued for our region - for details click here.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the upper 90s to lower 100s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: Westerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: Rainfall will be zero in most areas - a few spots, lucky enough to find themselves under a thunderstorm, could pick up a heavy downpour.
Confidence in this forecast is medium
Monday night: Partly cloudy skies - warm - drought conditions.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: Westerly winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is medium
Tuesday: Partly cloudy skies - hot - drought conditions. An isolated storm possible. An assortment of heat advisories, special weather statements, and other information has been issued for our region - for details click here
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the upper 90s to lower 100s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: Westerly winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is medium
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
.
.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 60s to lower 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.Wind: Westerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Friday: Mostly sunny and very hot. Drought conditions. An assortment of heat advisories, special weather statements, and other information has been issued for our region - for details click here
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 100s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: Westerly at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Friday night: Clear skies and warm.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower to middle 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.Wind: Westerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
.
Saturday: Mostly sunny - very hot - drought conditions. Isolated thunderstorm possible. An assortment of heat advisories, special weather
statements, and other information has been issued for our region - for
details click here.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the lower 100s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
.
Saturday night: Mostly clear and warm. An isolated storm possible - very isolated.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: Westerly winds of 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Westerly winds of 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Sunday: Mostly sunny - very hot - drought conditions. Scattered severe storms possible. An assortment of heat advisories, special weather
statements, and other information has been issued for our region - for
details click here.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: mostly in the lower 100s | Normal
highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: Rainfall will be zero in most areas - a few spots, lucky enough to find themselves under a thunderstorm, could pick up a heavy downpour.
Sunday night: Partly cloudy skies and warm. Very isolated chance for a thunderstorm.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower to middle 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: West - southwest winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: Rainfall will be zero in most areas - a few spots, lucky enough to find themselves under a thunderstorm, could pick up a heavy downpour.
Confidence in this forecast is medium
Monday: Partly cloudy skies - hot - drought conditions. Very isolated thunderstorm possible. An assortment of heat advisories, special weather statements, and other information has been issued for our region - for details click here.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the upper 90s to lower 100s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: Westerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: Rainfall will be zero in most areas - a few spots, lucky enough to find themselves under a thunderstorm, could pick up a heavy downpour.
Confidence in this forecast is medium
Monday night: Partly cloudy skies - warm - drought conditions.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: Westerly winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is medium
Tuesday: Partly cloudy skies - hot - drought conditions. An isolated storm possible. An assortment of heat advisories, special weather statements, and other information has been issued for our region - for details click here
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the upper 90s to lower 100s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: Westerly winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is medium
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
.
.
Intense heat and drought over the region. Hot temperatures will be cause for concern on Thursday into the weekend - would not be surprised to see record or near record high temperatures above 100 degrees in many counties. Use caution.
Some isolated severe storms possible on Sunday afternoon in the area - hail and gusty winds - lightning and heavy downpours in the most intense storms.
I am posting information about the drought on the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
.
Basic heat precautions. Use care in the coming days - check on elderly residents.
Hottest part of the day will likely be from 1 pm through 6 pm. The 11 am through 7 pm will be very warm to hot - but the most intense heat is typically 1 pm through 6 pm.
Monitor radars for any storms that pop up
No wild card in this update - historic drought will continue this week.
.
.
.
Tweaked numbers - tweaked precip chances and high temps
.
.
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
.
..
Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here. I also strongly encourage you to FRIEND some of the local media meteorologists - I follow all of them and so should you.
.
---
The forecast for severe or extreme weather
.
The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
.
Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
*** If the storm chances are less than 10% then I will put no on the below ***
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.
Friday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Saturday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Sunday: Isolated hail and high winds. Severe storms possible - scattered in nature.
Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Small chance
Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Small chance
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Small chance
Monday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.
For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Saturday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Sunday: Isolated hail and high winds. Severe storms possible - scattered in nature.
Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Small chance
Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Small chance
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Small chance
Monday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.
For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
or
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
.
.
Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
Thursday - No
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
Monday - No
Tuesday - No
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
.
Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
Thursday - No
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
Monday - No
Tuesday - No
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
.
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
.
The
links above are interactive and
you can move
around the United States by
simply clicking on the
national map - or
from the pull down menu
where it says regions and
US States.
.
To view the interactive warning map - click here.
.
.
You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
.
.
The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
.
To view the interactive warning map - click here.
.
You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
.
The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
.
This
forecast
analysis covers far southern
Illinois, southeast
Missouri,
southwest Indiana,
western Kentucky, and
northwest
Tennessee
.
HEADLINES: A record or near record heat wave is developing over our region - many areas will experience record or near record temperatures over the coming days. The duration of this event could also break some records.
Many areas will be above 100 degrees on Thursday - Friday - Saturday - Sunday - Monday - Tuesday. We are in a 1930s and 1950s weather pattern - you have heard me say that for the last decade - that continues and this drought is just further evidence of that fact.
Here are a few statistics from Paducah, KY
We are looking at breaking some decent records. If we reach 101 degrees for four or more days in a row then you have to go back to the 1930s, 1950s, and 1988 to have experienced heat to that degree.
The hottest day in June (according to official records for Paducah) would be 106 degrees - set on June 26, 1942.
The hottest day ever recorded is 108 degrees set on July 17th 1942 (we tied that on Friday the 29th of June 2012)
Here is what I have dug up on Paducah, Kentucky
1952
June 24th 99.0
June 25th 99.0
June 26th 98.1
June 27th 102.0*
June 28th 105.1*
June 29th 105.1*
June 30th 106.01*
July 1st 97
July 26th 102.0
July 27th 102.9
July 28th 106.0
July 29th 96.1
1953
August 31st 100.0
September 1st 102.0
September 2nd 100.9 degrees
1954
June 26th 100.9
June 27th 104.0
July 13th 102.9
July 14th 102.0
July 18th 100.0
August 14th 100.9
August 15th 102.9
August 16th 102.0
August 17th 100.9
August 18th 102.0
September 3rd 100.9
September 4th 102.0
September 5th 104.0
September 6th 100.9
1966
July 10th 100.9
July 11th 100.9
July 12th 102.9
July 13th 105.1
July 14th 105.1
1980
July 8th 100.9
July 11th 102.0
July 12th 102.0
July 15th 102.9
July 16th 102.0
July 19th 102.0
July 31st 100.0
1988
June 22nd 100.0
June 23rd 102.9
June 24th 102.9
June 25th 102.0
June 26th 100.9
July 8th 102.0
July 9th 100.0
July 17th 100.0
August 15th 102.0*
August 16th 102.0*
August 17th 104.0*
August 18th 102.9*
2007
August 8th 100.0
August 12th 100.9
August 15th 102.0
August 16th 105.1
August 18th 100.0
August 22nd 100.0
August 23rd 100.9
August 24th 100.9
2010
August 10th 100.9
August 11th 100.0
August 12th 104.0
August 13th 100.9
August 14th 100.9
Some other years
July 17, 1942 it was 108 degrees**
August 4, 1947 it was 106 degrees
June 28, 1952 it was 106 degrees
June 30, 1962 it was 106 degrees
** Denotes the all time record high for Paducah.
* denotes: Four days in a row of 101 degrees or higher. Rare in this region.
Here is some more unofficial information
Some new crunched numbers - to show you how common or uncommon a heat wave like this would be in our region - these are unofficial numbers - I went back into the 1800s for the Paducah and Paducah area. This is what I found. The criteria I used would be a temperature of 102 degrees or above for four days in a row (or more). The years that this happened would be 1896, 1901, 1918, 1925, 1930, 1931, 1934, 1936, 1941, 1947, 1952, 1988. In 1918, 1936, and 1952 it happened twice - the only years I could find where it happened twice. The highest number of consecutive days that I could find was in 1901 8 days in July. This type of event is most common in July and August. I could only find 2 years where it happened in June - that was 1931 and 1952. Both of which brought 4 consecutive days of 102 or above in the City of Paducah or Paducah area. Obviously the 1930s were extreme years. You also had the great floods of the 1930s on top of the great droughts of the 1930s. See a common theme? Cycles come and cycles go.
In addition to the high/extreme temperatures - we are also, of course, in the midst of a major drought. Some places are now 12-18+ inches below normal in precipitation. There are some spots that have not measured 5" of rain this year, so far. That is simply stunning.
Extreme caution is urged if you have to be outdoors. Low humidity levels may also cause sweat to evaporate much faster than it normally would. This means you may not be aware of your hydration levels.
Hottest part of the day will likely be from 1 pm through 6 pm. The 11 am through 7 pm will be very warm to hot - but the most intense heat is typically 1 pm through 6 pm.
Drink plenty of water.
Severe drought conditions will continue to intensify over the coming days - little or no rain is in the forecast. Communities are urged to consider asking their local residents to start cutting down on water usage - before it becomes a serious problem. This is especially true of communities that depend on lakes and reservoirs for their water.
Community residents are encouraged to check on elderly people - also remember not to leave anyone (young and old - and pets) in cars. Temperatures inside of cars can quickly heat up to 120-190 degrees.
For additional heat safety information - click here
Here are some of the high temperature forecast maps for Thursday into next week - these are incredible temps for our region - especially for so many days in a row.
Keep in mind that locally higher temperatures are possible in some areas - bottom line is that it will be hot - whether it is 98 degrees or 105 degrees.
Heat index values will be near actual air temperatures (because of the low dew points). There could be a bit higher dew point levels on Sunday or Monday.
The temperature maps below are GENERAL high temperatures - some areas could be a bit lower and some areas could be a big higher - keep that in mind.
Some high temp records for the past week - over 1000 of them.
Here is some interesting information from the Arkansas Weather Blog
Anyway, what caused it (the extreme temperatures)? It was the perfect combination of what I call the "Triple Ingredients To Top 100" plus one other very important factor which made it get out of hand. I'll explain. Normally in summer here are the 3 ingredients to hit 100....
1. Strong high pressure
2. Dry ground
3. Ample sunshine
We had all of that Thursday plus one other factor which caused temperatures to reach levels never seen before in June weather history for Little Rock and other locations.... DRY AIR!
The presence of dry air allows the temperature to cool rapidly and efficiently at night, but it heats rapidly during the day. Usually during an Arkansas summer, we have thick and high humidity levels. Water vapor is the number 1 greenhouse gas in our atmosphere. High levels of humidity will prevent temperatures from varying too much compared to when dry air is in place. Heat gets trapped by water vapor and it's not allowed to enter or escape as efficiently compared to the drier air. I hope this makes sense.
However, when the humidity levels are high, it feels even hotter due to the inability for your body to cool itself. Evaporating moisture off your body is more difficult because the air surrounding you is already full of moisture. When dry air is in place, the evaporation rate is much higher and you will not sweat as much. This can lead to evaporational cooling. That's what we experienced Thursday. Dewpoint values were in the 50s and with readings around 107, it felt like 105 degrees. There was an actual cooling effect due to the dry air.
Over the next few days, the humidity levels will begin to increase some and this will take temperatures down very slowly, but it will feel hotter because of humidity levels will increase.
.
HEADLINES: A record or near record heat wave is developing over our region - many areas will experience record or near record temperatures over the coming days. The duration of this event could also break some records.
Many areas will be above 100 degrees on Thursday - Friday - Saturday - Sunday - Monday - Tuesday. We are in a 1930s and 1950s weather pattern - you have heard me say that for the last decade - that continues and this drought is just further evidence of that fact.
Here are a few statistics from Paducah, KY
We are looking at breaking some decent records. If we reach 101 degrees for four or more days in a row then you have to go back to the 1930s, 1950s, and 1988 to have experienced heat to that degree.
The hottest day in June (according to official records for Paducah) would be 106 degrees - set on June 26, 1942.
The hottest day ever recorded is 108 degrees set on July 17th 1942 (we tied that on Friday the 29th of June 2012)
Here is what I have dug up on Paducah, Kentucky
1952
June 24th 99.0
June 25th 99.0
June 26th 98.1
June 27th 102.0*
June 28th 105.1*
June 29th 105.1*
June 30th 106.01*
July 1st 97
July 26th 102.0
July 27th 102.9
July 28th 106.0
July 29th 96.1
1953
August 31st 100.0
September 1st 102.0
September 2nd 100.9 degrees
1954
June 26th 100.9
June 27th 104.0
July 13th 102.9
July 14th 102.0
July 18th 100.0
August 14th 100.9
August 15th 102.9
August 16th 102.0
August 17th 100.9
August 18th 102.0
September 3rd 100.9
September 4th 102.0
September 5th 104.0
September 6th 100.9
1966
July 10th 100.9
July 11th 100.9
July 12th 102.9
July 13th 105.1
July 14th 105.1
1980
July 8th 100.9
July 11th 102.0
July 12th 102.0
July 15th 102.9
July 16th 102.0
July 19th 102.0
July 31st 100.0
1988
June 22nd 100.0
June 23rd 102.9
June 24th 102.9
June 25th 102.0
June 26th 100.9
July 8th 102.0
July 9th 100.0
July 17th 100.0
August 15th 102.0*
August 16th 102.0*
August 17th 104.0*
August 18th 102.9*
2007
August 8th 100.0
August 12th 100.9
August 15th 102.0
August 16th 105.1
August 18th 100.0
August 22nd 100.0
August 23rd 100.9
August 24th 100.9
2010
August 10th 100.9
August 11th 100.0
August 12th 104.0
August 13th 100.9
August 14th 100.9
Some other years
July 17, 1942 it was 108 degrees**
August 4, 1947 it was 106 degrees
June 28, 1952 it was 106 degrees
June 30, 1962 it was 106 degrees
** Denotes the all time record high for Paducah.
* denotes: Four days in a row of 101 degrees or higher. Rare in this region.
Here is some more unofficial information
Some new crunched numbers - to show you how common or uncommon a heat wave like this would be in our region - these are unofficial numbers - I went back into the 1800s for the Paducah and Paducah area. This is what I found. The criteria I used would be a temperature of 102 degrees or above for four days in a row (or more). The years that this happened would be 1896, 1901, 1918, 1925, 1930, 1931, 1934, 1936, 1941, 1947, 1952, 1988. In 1918, 1936, and 1952 it happened twice - the only years I could find where it happened twice. The highest number of consecutive days that I could find was in 1901 8 days in July. This type of event is most common in July and August. I could only find 2 years where it happened in June - that was 1931 and 1952. Both of which brought 4 consecutive days of 102 or above in the City of Paducah or Paducah area. Obviously the 1930s were extreme years. You also had the great floods of the 1930s on top of the great droughts of the 1930s. See a common theme? Cycles come and cycles go.
In addition to the high/extreme temperatures - we are also, of course, in the midst of a major drought. Some places are now 12-18+ inches below normal in precipitation. There are some spots that have not measured 5" of rain this year, so far. That is simply stunning.
Extreme caution is urged if you have to be outdoors. Low humidity levels may also cause sweat to evaporate much faster than it normally would. This means you may not be aware of your hydration levels.
Hottest part of the day will likely be from 1 pm through 6 pm. The 11 am through 7 pm will be very warm to hot - but the most intense heat is typically 1 pm through 6 pm.
Drink plenty of water.
Severe drought conditions will continue to intensify over the coming days - little or no rain is in the forecast. Communities are urged to consider asking their local residents to start cutting down on water usage - before it becomes a serious problem. This is especially true of communities that depend on lakes and reservoirs for their water.
Community residents are encouraged to check on elderly people - also remember not to leave anyone (young and old - and pets) in cars. Temperatures inside of cars can quickly heat up to 120-190 degrees.
For additional heat safety information - click here
Here are some of the high temperature forecast maps for Thursday into next week - these are incredible temps for our region - especially for so many days in a row.
Keep in mind that locally higher temperatures are possible in some areas - bottom line is that it will be hot - whether it is 98 degrees or 105 degrees.
Heat index values will be near actual air temperatures (because of the low dew points). There could be a bit higher dew point levels on Sunday or Monday.
The temperature maps below are GENERAL high temperatures - some areas could be a bit lower and some areas could be a big higher - keep that in mind.
Some high temp records for the past week - over 1000 of them.
Here is some interesting information from the Arkansas Weather Blog
Anyway, what caused it (the extreme temperatures)? It was the perfect combination of what I call the "Triple Ingredients To Top 100" plus one other very important factor which made it get out of hand. I'll explain. Normally in summer here are the 3 ingredients to hit 100....
1. Strong high pressure
2. Dry ground
3. Ample sunshine
We had all of that Thursday plus one other factor which caused temperatures to reach levels never seen before in June weather history for Little Rock and other locations.... DRY AIR!
The presence of dry air allows the temperature to cool rapidly and efficiently at night, but it heats rapidly during the day. Usually during an Arkansas summer, we have thick and high humidity levels. Water vapor is the number 1 greenhouse gas in our atmosphere. High levels of humidity will prevent temperatures from varying too much compared to when dry air is in place. Heat gets trapped by water vapor and it's not allowed to enter or escape as efficiently compared to the drier air. I hope this makes sense.
However, when the humidity levels are high, it feels even hotter due to the inability for your body to cool itself. Evaporating moisture off your body is more difficult because the air surrounding you is already full of moisture. When dry air is in place, the evaporation rate is much higher and you will not sweat as much. This can lead to evaporational cooling. That's what we experienced Thursday. Dewpoint values were in the 50s and with readings around 107, it felt like 105 degrees. There was an actual cooling effect due to the dry air.
Over the next few days, the humidity levels will begin to increase some and this will take temperatures down very slowly, but it will feel hotter because of humidity levels will increase.
We have a TON of new weather maps on
the Weather
Observatory
web-site - these include
temperatures, wind speed,
dew points, heat
index,
barometric
pressure, predicted
rainfall,
climate forecast, medium
and long
range maps,
forecasts and more! Click here
.
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
---
We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
.
Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's
check
out the how much rain is
forecast to fall
over the next 120
hours (5 days). This map gives
you a general
broad brushed idea of
what can be
expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
.
If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
NO RAIN IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST - Some scattered thunderstorms are possible on Sunday and Monday - widely scattered.
.
If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
NO RAIN IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST - Some scattered thunderstorms are possible on Sunday and Monday - widely scattered.
.
.
You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
.
You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
.
Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
.
You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
.
You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
.
Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
.
.
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
.
To view recent records that have been broken - click here
.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
.
To view recent records that have been broken - click here
.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
.
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1. Drought conditions will continue to intensify this week and next week.
DROUGHT INFORMATION - CLICK HERE
Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here
DROUGHT INFORMATION - CLICK HERE
Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here
Now is a GREAT
time to buy a NOAA All Hazards
Weather Radio. Better to have one
before storms
strike than to be without one
during an event. I recommend the
Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
.
Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
.
.
Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
.
All other states- Click Here
.
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
.
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