June 7th-10th 2012

Thursday through Sunday update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...

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Thursday night:  Mostly clear and pleasant.
Below normal temperatures

Lows: in the upper 50s and lower 60s  |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.
Wind:  Mostly calm  
Precipitation probability - 0%  | Rainfall totals:  0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high

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Friday:  Mostly sunny and a little bit warmer.
Near normal temperatures

Highs:  around 85-88 degrees.  | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 86 degrees.
Wind: Easterly winds at 5-10 mph 
Precipitation probability - 0%  |  Rainfall totals:   0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Friday night:  Mostly clear and pleasant.
Below normal temperatures

Lows: in the lower 60s  |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.
Wind:  East winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 0%  |  Rainfall totals:
Confidence in this forecast is very high

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Saturday:  Partly cloudy skies and warmer - a bit more on the humid side. 

Above normal temperatures

Highs:  around 88-92 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 86 degrees.
Wind: Southeast winds at 10-15 mph  
Precipitation probability - 10%  |  Rainfall totals:  0"

Confidence in this forecast is high  

Saturday night:  Increasing clouds and mild - a slight chance for a shower over southern counties.
Near normal to above normal temperatures

Lows: in the middle to upper 60s |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.
Wind:  Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10%  |  Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high 

Sunday:  Partly cloudy skies and warm - more humid.  A chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Thunderstorms could produce lightning and very heavy downpours in some areas. 

Near normal temperatures

Highs:  around 84 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 86 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 10-15 mph  
Precipitation probability - 60%  |  Rainfall totals:  0.25" but thunderstorms can produce locally very heavy rainfall - exceeding 1" in some areas

Confidence in this forecast is medium 
 

 
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No major concerns the next few days - I have put scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for Sunday

Torrential downpours are possible on Sunday into Monday in some spots - some areas could pick up a quick 1" or more in a short amount of time.  PWAT values are extremely high - that means there will be plenty of moisture available.  Again - not everyone will experience this - but some areas likely will.  
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Could be some lightning on Sunday and heavy downpours - thunderstorms this time of the year can produce locally very heavy rain in isolated spots. 

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No significant wild cards in this forecast!
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Increased temperatures a little bit for Saturday and decreased Sunday's

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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here

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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado.  More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.

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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here 


Thursday afternoon -  No severe weather .
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Thursday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Thursday night:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Friday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Friday:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  No

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Friday night :   Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Friday night:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No

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Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Saturday:  Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms?  No

Saturday night :   Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Saturday night:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
 

Sunday: Widespread severe weather is not anticipated - can't rule out an isolated storm producing gusty winds or hail.
Sunday:  Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms?  Yes - some thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday into Sunday night (into Tuesday actually).

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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?  
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Friday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
Monday - No

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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here  Alternative link - click here
 

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To view all watches and warnings in IL -  Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here

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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning  map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site.  For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.

 

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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
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HEADLINES: Nice weather for Friday into Saturday - rain and storm chances arrive on Sunday into Monday night/Tuesday.  Some areas could pick up very heavy rainfall.  PWAT values will be over 2" in some areas.  That means there will be a lot of moisture available for showers and thunderstorms to work with.  I would not be surprised to see some 1-3" rainfall totals in our region - isolated but possible.

Unfortunately - as many of you know - it is impossible to know which counties will pick up rain and which will not.  I would say the BEST chance of rain is to the east of the Mississippi River - however, with that said - showers and storms are possible anywhere in the region.


Here are the high temperature graphics for the next few days - it will be warmer and the dew points will be on the rise.  When dew points rise it does feel a bit more sticky outside.  So - keep that in mind this weekend.  I know we have had some nice weather the last few days. 

First graphic is for June 8th - Friday.  Second is for Saturday - then Sunday and Monday.

 The drought continues to grow worse in our region - check out some of these numbers

 

We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more!  Click here 

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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.

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Want to learn more about how to use our radars?  I made a how to video with more information

Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 120 hours (5 days).  This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected.  Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.

This is the 5 day rainfall forecast - this takes us through Tuesday.  Remember that thunderstorms can quickly drop 1-2" of rain in isolated areas.  This rainfall map is a generalization forecast - covering the region.  Hopefully we all pick up at least a little bit of rain on Sunday into Tuesday.

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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time.  Those maps can be viewed here.  
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.


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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in 
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention).  I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible.  Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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1.  Nothing major to discuss.  The drought will continue to become more severe as times passes - there will be some rain chances Sunday into Monday/Tuesday.  Confidence is low past next Tuesday on rain chances.  Will monitor.  


Here are the latest 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks

Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here

Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio.  Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event.  I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!

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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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