Monday through Friday update
I am in summer mode - that means I try to update every other day or every 2-3 days. If the weather is active then I will come in and update the forecast as needed. I will also note an update at the very top of the blog update.
For more frequent updates check visit my weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
Wind: West and southwest winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: isolated heavy rainfall totals in thunderstorms that manage to form in the heat of the day
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Monday: Very
hot and mostly dry - drought conditions. A few thunderstorms will pop up during the afternoon heat - any storms that form can produce locally heavy rain, hail, lightning, and gusty winds. Expect some severe thunderstorm/flash flood warnings in a few counties - to view the warnings - click here. An assortment of heat advisories,
special weather statements, and other information has been issued for
our region - for details click here
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the upper 90s to lower 100s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: West and southwest winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: isolated heavy rainfall totals in thunderstorms that manage to form in the heat of the day
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Monday night: Mostly clear and warm. A few scattered storms possible - especially over southeast IL into southwest IN and parts of NW and northern KY - likely near Madisonville area - some very heavy rainfall totals possible - mainly before 11 pm. Storms will taper more and more after midnight.
Wind: Westerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-1.00" in areas that find themselves underneath storms - locally much higher totals possible
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Tuesday: Partly sunny and hot. Drought conditions. Scattered thunderstorms will pop up during the afternoon heat - any storms that form can produce locally heavy rain, hail, lightning, and gusty winds. A few severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings possible - again scattered in nature. An assortment of heat advisories, special weather statements, and other information has been issued for our region - for details click here
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the upper 90s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: Westerly at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: isolated very heavy rainfall totals in thunderstorms that manage to form in the heat of the day
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: Southwest/westerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: isolated very heavy rainfall totals in thunderstorms that manage to form in the heat of the day
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: isolated very heavy rainfall totals in thunderstorms that manage to form in the heat of the day
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - less than 10% | Rainfall totals: isolated very heavy rainfall totals in thunderstorms that manage to form in the heat of the day
Confidence in this forecast is high
Thursday night: Partly cloudy skies and warm.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower to middle 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: West - southwest winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - less than 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Friday: Partly cloudy skies - very hot - drought conditions. Isolated thunderstorms possible. An assortment of heat advisories, special weather statements, and other information has been issued for our region - for details click here.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the upper 90s and lower 100s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: Westerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: isolated very heavy rainfall totals in thunderstorms that manage to form in the heat of the day
Confidence in this forecast is high
Friday night: Partly cloudy skies - warm - drought conditions.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: Westerly winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - less than 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Saturday: Partly cloudy skies - hot - drought conditions. An isolated storm possible. An assortment of heat advisories, special weather statements, and other information has been issued for our region - for details click here
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the upper 90s to lower 100s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: Westerly winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: isolated very heavy rainfall totals in thunderstorms that manage to form in the heat of the day
Confidence in this forecast is medium
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 60s to lower 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.Wind: Westerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-1.00" in areas that find themselves underneath storms - locally much higher totals possible
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Tuesday: Partly sunny and hot. Drought conditions. Scattered thunderstorms will pop up during the afternoon heat - any storms that form can produce locally heavy rain, hail, lightning, and gusty winds. A few severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings possible - again scattered in nature. An assortment of heat advisories, special weather statements, and other information has been issued for our region - for details click here
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the upper 90s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: Westerly at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: isolated very heavy rainfall totals in thunderstorms that manage to form in the heat of the day
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Tuesday night: Partly cloudy and warm - a few evening thunderstorms possible - otherwise dry with drought conditions.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower to middle 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.Wind: Southwest/westerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: isolated very heavy rainfall totals in thunderstorms that manage to form in the heat of the day
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wednesday: Mostly sunny - hot - drought conditions. Isolated thunderstorm possible. An assortment of heat advisories,
special weather statements, and other information has been issued for
our region - for details click here
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the upper 90s and lower 100s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: isolated very heavy rainfall totals in thunderstorms that manage to form in the heat of the day
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wednesday night: Mostly clear and warm. An isolated storm possible.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: Southwest/westerly winds of 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Southwest/westerly winds of 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Thursday: Mostly sunny - very hot - drought conditions. Isolated thunderstorm possible. An assortment of heat advisories, special weather
statements, and other information has been issued for our region - for
details click here.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: mostly in the lower 100s | Normal
highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - less than 10% | Rainfall totals: isolated very heavy rainfall totals in thunderstorms that manage to form in the heat of the day
Thursday night: Partly cloudy skies and warm.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower to middle 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: West - southwest winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - less than 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Friday: Partly cloudy skies - very hot - drought conditions. Isolated thunderstorms possible. An assortment of heat advisories, special weather statements, and other information has been issued for our region - for details click here.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the upper 90s and lower 100s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: Westerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: isolated very heavy rainfall totals in thunderstorms that manage to form in the heat of the day
Confidence in this forecast is high
Friday night: Partly cloudy skies - warm - drought conditions.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: Westerly winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - less than 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Saturday: Partly cloudy skies - hot - drought conditions. An isolated storm possible. An assortment of heat advisories, special weather statements, and other information has been issued for our region - for details click here
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the upper 90s to lower 100s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: Westerly winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: isolated very heavy rainfall totals in thunderstorms that manage to form in the heat of the day
Confidence in this forecast is medium
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Intense heat and drought over the region. Hot temperatures will be cause for concern
Some isolated severe storms possible on Monday afternoon and Tuesday - hail and gusty winds - lightning and heavy downpours in the most intense storms. Expect a few severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings. They will be scattered in nature. Most widespread precip on Monday afternoon/night will be over parts of southeast IL into southwest IN and then into parts of KY.
Elevated wildfire danger continues all week
I am posting information about the drought on the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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Basic heat precautions. Use care in the coming days - check on elderly residents.
Hottest part of the day will likely be from 1 pm through 6 pm. The 11 am through 7 pm will be very warm to hot - but the most intense heat is typically 1 pm through 6 pm.
Monitor radars for any storms that pop up- remember that a few storms will be severe with hail and high winds (very isolated reports). Flash flooding possible in isolated areas, as well. Many areas will remain dry.
No wild card in this update - drought will continue this week.
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No major changes
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here. I also strongly encourage you to FRIEND some of the local media meteorologists - I follow all of them and so should you.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
Monday: Isolated severe storm can't be ruled out. Expect some warnings for hail and wind.
Monday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes a few storms scattered around the area
Monday night: Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes a few storms scattered around the area
Tuesday: Isolated severe storm can't be ruled out. Tuesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes a few storms scattered around the area
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Tuesday night : Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes a few storms scattered around the area
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Wednesday: Very isolated severe storm can't be ruled out.
Wednesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes a few storms scattered around the area
Wednesday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Unlikely
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes a few storms scattered around the area
Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Unlikely
Friday: Isolated hail and high winds. Severe storms possible - scattered in nature.
Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
Wednesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes a few storms scattered around the area
Wednesday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Unlikely
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes a few storms scattered around the area
Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Unlikely
Friday: Isolated hail and high winds. Severe storms possible - scattered in nature.
Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
or
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
Monday - No - but a few isolated severe storms will occur.
Tuesday - Very low
Wednesday - No
Thursday - No
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
Monday - No - but a few isolated severe storms will occur.
Tuesday - Very low
Wednesday - No
Thursday - No
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The
links above are interactive and
you can move
around the United States by
simply clicking on the
national map - or
from the pull down menu
where it says regions and
US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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This
forecast
analysis covers far southern
Illinois, southeast
Missouri,
southwest Indiana,
western Kentucky, and
northwest
Tennessee
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HEADLINES: Not going to insult your intelligence by telling you to follow the common-sense heat related rules. Keep in mind that the fire danger is very high in the region. Fires have been reported in numerous counties over the last week. This is a big concern during the coming days - especially true because of Fourth of July celebrations. Please use extreme care or caution - some counties have banned fireworks.
Drought continues - near record to record heat will continue for the upcoming week. I see a possible break next week as we might move into a northwest flow pattern. Remember that a northwest flow pattern increases our chances for lines of thunderstorms to move into the region - this isn't a sure bet just yet. I will monitor and update through the week.
Otherwise - expect a few scattered storms this week - mainly the first half of the week. Any storms that form can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, hail, and cloud to ground lightning. Most areas will remain dry. I expect the NWS will issue a few severe thunderstorm warnings for storms that form - can't rule out a flash flood warning or two, as well. The warnings will mainly be for hail and gusty winds.
Monitor radars if you are concerned or see dark clouds forming. Storms over the last couple of days have produced quite a bit of cloud to ground lightning. Boaters use care and caution.
Some changes on the weather map are likely to start to occur as we push into next Sunday or Monday into the following week - PERHAPS slightly cooler temperatures and a chance for thunderstorms once again. It appears that temperatures may return to near seasonable levels or slightly above normal. We will take what we can get. Will monitor and update during the week.
Temperatures this week will be in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Very warm/hot conditions. The drought will continue to intensify.
Here are the high temperature forecast maps - keep in mind that some areas could be a little warmer from time to time - but you get the general idea.
Let's take a look at how much above or below normal temperatures will be for this week - the blue of course is the below normal temps and the orange would be the above normal temperatures. Our normal highs around 89-91 degrees and normal lows are around 68-70 degrees.
Here are some maps from June - showing you just how much below normal we were in the rain department.
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HEADLINES: Not going to insult your intelligence by telling you to follow the common-sense heat related rules. Keep in mind that the fire danger is very high in the region. Fires have been reported in numerous counties over the last week. This is a big concern during the coming days - especially true because of Fourth of July celebrations. Please use extreme care or caution - some counties have banned fireworks.
Drought continues - near record to record heat will continue for the upcoming week. I see a possible break next week as we might move into a northwest flow pattern. Remember that a northwest flow pattern increases our chances for lines of thunderstorms to move into the region - this isn't a sure bet just yet. I will monitor and update through the week.
Otherwise - expect a few scattered storms this week - mainly the first half of the week. Any storms that form can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, hail, and cloud to ground lightning. Most areas will remain dry. I expect the NWS will issue a few severe thunderstorm warnings for storms that form - can't rule out a flash flood warning or two, as well. The warnings will mainly be for hail and gusty winds.
Monitor radars if you are concerned or see dark clouds forming. Storms over the last couple of days have produced quite a bit of cloud to ground lightning. Boaters use care and caution.
Some changes on the weather map are likely to start to occur as we push into next Sunday or Monday into the following week - PERHAPS slightly cooler temperatures and a chance for thunderstorms once again. It appears that temperatures may return to near seasonable levels or slightly above normal. We will take what we can get. Will monitor and update during the week.
Temperatures this week will be in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Very warm/hot conditions. The drought will continue to intensify.
Here are the high temperature forecast maps - keep in mind that some areas could be a little warmer from time to time - but you get the general idea.
Let's take a look at how much above or below normal temperatures will be for this week - the blue of course is the below normal temps and the orange would be the above normal temperatures. Our normal highs around 89-91 degrees and normal lows are around 68-70 degrees.
Here are some maps from June - showing you just how much below normal we were in the rain department.
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's
check
out the how much rain is
forecast to fall
over the next 120
hours (5 days). This map gives
you a general
broad brushed idea of
what can be
expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
Widespread rain is not in the forecast - a few thunderstorms will be possible this week. Those areas that do pick up rain could see 1-3" in less than one hour. These areas will be isolated in nature. Monitor radars if you have an outdoor event or see dark clouds gathering.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
Widespread rain is not in the forecast - a few thunderstorms will be possible this week. Those areas that do pick up rain could see 1-3" in less than one hour. These areas will be isolated in nature. Monitor radars if you have an outdoor event or see dark clouds gathering.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
July 8th-14th
The week of the 8-14th may bring more seasonable temperatures compared to what we have been experiencing. I am still expecting a NW flow type atmosphere - that may bring a brief halt to our upper 90s and lower 100s.
July 15th-20th
A return to hotter conditions? Possible.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
July 8th-14th
The week of the 8-14th may bring more seasonable temperatures compared to what we have been experiencing. I am still expecting a NW flow type atmosphere - that may bring a brief halt to our upper 90s and lower 100s.
July 15th-20th
A return to hotter conditions? Possible.
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1. Drought conditions will continue to intensify this week.
Some chance that temps will decrease a bit by Sunday into next week - perhaps a better chance of precipitation, as well. Something to monitor in the coming days - typically we see several heat waves in a pattern like this. The heat will come and go - periods where temperatures will be a bit cooler then warm up again.
DROUGHT INFORMATION - CLICK HERE
Here are the latest 6-10 day temperature and precipitation outlooks - then the 8-10 day outlooks
Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here
Some chance that temps will decrease a bit by Sunday into next week - perhaps a better chance of precipitation, as well. Something to monitor in the coming days - typically we see several heat waves in a pattern like this. The heat will come and go - periods where temperatures will be a bit cooler then warm up again.
DROUGHT INFORMATION - CLICK HERE
Here are the latest 6-10 day temperature and precipitation outlooks - then the 8-10 day outlooks
Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here
Now is a GREAT
time to buy a NOAA All Hazards
Weather Radio. Better to have one
before storms
strike than to be without one
during an event. I recommend the
Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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