August 30th - September 2nd: Rain chances in coming days


UPDATED ON THURSDAY, AUGUST 30th WITH NEW NUMBERS


August 29th- September 2nd
2012 Wednesday through Sunday update 

Tricky forecast over the coming days - check back for updates.  I will update the Bottom Line It For Me Beau part of the information - might also update graphics.  

Check the Facebook page for more frequent updates. 

Keep in mind that rainfall totals will be HIGHLY dependent on the exact track of Isaac.  


For more frequent updates check visit my weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.

 
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...

Wednesday:  Mostly sunny and warm
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the lower 90s  |  Normal highs for this time of the year are around 84 degrees.
Wind:  Northeast winds at 5-10 mph - gusts to 15 or 20 mph on area lakes/rivers
Precipitation probability - 0%  | Rainfall totals:
0.00"
Confidence in this forecast is very high

 
Wednesday night:  A few clouds increasing from the south - cirrus clouds - mild temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle to upper 60s  |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.
Wind: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph 
Precipitation probability - 0%  | Rainfall totals:
0.00" 
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Thursday:  Party sunny skies - increase of cirrus clouds from the south/southeast throughout the day - a chance for a shower or thunderstorm
Above normal temperatures
Highs:  in the upper 80s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 84 degrees.
Wind: Easterly winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 20%  |  Rainfall totals:  0.25" 

Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Thursday night:  An increase in clouds will continue.  A few showers and thunderstorms possible.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the 68-74 degree range  |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.
Wind:  Southeast winds of 5-10 mph - gusts to 15 mph
Precipitation probability - 20%  |  Rainfall totals: 0.10"-0.25" 

Confidence in this forecast is medium
 
Friday:  Mostly cloudy - chance for showers or thunderstorms - locally heavy rain possible - especially over southeast Missouri - spreading north and east through the day.  Windy at times.  To view any watches or warnings - click here
Above normal temperatures
Highs: mostly in the upper 80s  | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 84 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph - gusts to 15-20 mph
Precipitation probability - 40%-60%  |  Rainfall totals: 
0.25"-0.50" - keep in mind that rainfall totals will be HIGHLY dependent on the exact track of Isaac.  Heavier rains are likely over our western counties and northwestern counties.  The exact track of Isaac will be the deciding factor on rainfall totals.  
Confidence in this forecast is medium

Friday night: 
Mostly cloudy with a chance for showers and thunderstorms.  Locally heavy rainfall possible - especially over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois - areas west of there, as well.  Windy at times.  To view any watches or warnings - click here
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 70s |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.
Wind:  Southerly winds at 10-20 mph
Precipitation probability - 40%-60% - 60%-80% western/northwest counties |  Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.50"  -
keep in mind that rainfall totals will be HIGHLY dependent on the exact track of Isaac.  Heavier rains are likely over our western counties and northwestern counties.  The exact track of Isaac will be the deciding factor on rainfall totals.
Confidence in this forecast is low


Saturday:  Mostly cloudy with a good chance for showers and thunderstorms.  Some may produce heavy rain.  Windy at times.  To view any watches or warnings - click here
Above normal temperatures
Highs: mostly in the middle to upper 80s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 84 degrees.
Wind: Southerly at 10-20 mph perhaps gusty at times
Precipitation probability - 40%-60% and
60%-80% western/northwest countiesRainfall totals: 0.25"-0.50" - keep in mind that rainfall totals will be HIGHLY dependent on the exact track of Isaac.  Heavier rains are likely over our western counties and northwestern counties.  The exact track of Isaac will be the deciding factor on rainfall totals.
 
Saturday night:  Mostly cloudy showers and thunderstorms likely.  Some locally heavy rainfall possible.  To view any watches or warnings - click here
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 70s |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.
Wind: 
Southerly winds at 5-15 mph - gusty winds at times
Precipitation probability - 60%-80%  |  Rainfall totals:
0.25" - 0.50" - keep in mind that rainfall totals will be HIGHLY dependent on the exact track of Isaac.  Heavier rains are likely over our western counties and northwestern counties.  The exact track of Isaac will be the deciding factor on rainfall totals.


Sunday:  Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible.  Some locally heavy rainfall possible.  To view any watches or warnings - click here
Near normal temperatures
Highs: mostly in the middle 80s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 84 degrees.
Wind: Southerly
at 5-15 mph - gusty winds at times
Precipitation probability -  60%  |  Rainfall totals:  0.25" - 0.50" -
keep in mind that rainfall totals will be HIGHLY dependent on the exact track of Isaac.  Heavier rains are likely over our western counties and northwestern counties.  The exact track of Isaac will be the deciding factor on rainfall totals.
 
Sunday night:  Mostly cloudy a chance for a shower or thunderstorm.  To view any watches or warnings - click here
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 70s |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.

Precipitation probability - 40%  |  Rainfall totals:
0.25" - 0.50" - keep in mind that rainfall totals will be HIGHLY dependent on the exact track of Isaac.  Heavier rains are likely over our western counties and northwestern counties.  The exact track of Isaac will be the deciding factor on rainfall totals.

Monday:  Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible.  
Near normal temperatures
Highs: mostly in the middle 80s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 84 degrees.
Wind: Southerly
at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability -  40% |  Rainfall totals:  0.25" - 0.50"

 
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms.  Click here to join
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Obviously the main concern for this forecast package is going to be tropical rainstorm Isaac.  

Where Isaac tracks will be key in forecasting rainfall totals in our region.  It appears the heaviest rains will be mostly to our west (south/southwest/northwest/north). 
Track Isaac here - on our Tropical Weather Page  

Heaviest totals will spread through parts of western and central/northern Arkansas - southwest and south central Missouri - southeast - central Missouri - northeast Missouri - into southern/central and parts of northern Illinois.

Moisture from Isaac will be swept into our region - but again - the heaviest rains are likely to be across portions of Missouri and Illinois - perhaps the heaviest band somewhere along a line from Princeton, Indiana to Poplar Bluff, MO - along and west and near that line.  Totals of 2-4" are likely in those areas - perhaps even more in localized downpours.  For the rest of our region we should pick up a widespread 0.50"-1.50" event with locally heavier totals possible.

Monitor updates if you have outdoor plans and plan on some showers and storms in the region this weekend.  

Winds will be  gusty at times from the south at 10-20 mph - gusts above 20 mph.

If you have camping plans this weekend then monitor updates and possible watches/warnings.

Here is the official forecast from the Hydrological Prediction Center for Thursday through Tuesday - as you can see there are some ribbons of heavier rainfall totals.  EVERYONE will NOT receive what is shown on this map.  For tropical systems it is VERY difficult to give exact rainfall forecasts - county by county.  But you get the general idea from this map that some areas could pick up heavy rainfall totals.

Again - this is a forecast for rainfall totals - not a promise.




Also keep in mind that tropical systems can produce extremely heavy rainfall in small areas, as well.  We have witnessed that over the years - a couple of counties could pick up much heavier totals.  

Monitor for updates in the event the forecast changes.  There is low confidence in forecasting rainfall totals from Friday into Sunday night over our local counties.


 I am posting information about the drought on the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.




Monitor updated forecasts this weekend. Monitor weather radio if you are out camping.  Some flash flooding will be possible over the coming 2-4 day period in our region.




The wild card in this forecast is obviously going to be tropical rainstorm Isaac.  The eventual track of Isaac will be key in forecasting rainfall totals.  Monitor updated forecasts as the remnants track northward.
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Updated temperatures and rainfall forecasts over the coming days.

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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local area
Click Here.  I also strongly encourage you to FRIEND some of the local media meteorologists - I follow all of them and so should you.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather

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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado.  More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here


Wednesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Wednesday: 
Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  No


Wednesday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: 
Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  No


Thursday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Thursday:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  No
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Thursday night : 
Severe weather is not anticipated
.  No snow or ice.
Thursday night:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  Isolated


Friday:  A small chance for severe weather.  No snow or ice.
Friday: 
Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  Yes


Friday night:  A small chance for severe weather.  No snow or ice.  No snow or ice.
Friday night: 
Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  Yes


Saturday:  A small chance for a few severe thunderstorms.  No snow or ice.
Saturday:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  Yes
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Saturday night : 
A small chance for a few severe thunderstorms
.  No snow or ice.
Saturday night:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  Yes

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Sunday:  A small chance for a few severe thunderstorms.  No snow or ice.
Sunday: 
Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms
Yes

Sunday night :  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Sunday night:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  Yes


Monday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Monday: 
Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms
Yes
 

For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
or 
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here  

To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
 


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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?


Wednesday - No
Thursday - No
Friday -Monitor
Saturday - Monitor
Sunday - Monitor
Monday - No
Tuesday - No

To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here  Alternative link - click here
 
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To view all watches and warnings in IL -  Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here

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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning  map - click here.

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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here


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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site.  For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.

 
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
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HEADLINES:  Isaac is the big story in the weather community.  The storm increased in along the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday - becoming a hurricane during the late morning hours.  The main concern with Isaac, across the gulf coast states, is going to be the long duration of the wind and the heavy rain.  Flooding and storm surge damage will likely be substantial.


Track Isaac here - on our Tropical Weather Page 

Isaac on satellite this afternoon (Tuesday afternoon)

 
The question for our region will be the track of Isaac over the coming days.  Models have started to agree that Isaac will track west/northwest over the coming 24-48 hours with a turn towards the north on Thursday and Friday.  The system will eventually be absorbed into a cold front and trough moving in from the northern United States. 

Heavy rain and thunderstorms - some producing flash flooding and tornadoes - will spread north and west through parts of northeast Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi (parts of Alabama) tonight (Tuesday night) into Wednesday evening and Thursday morning.  Rainfall totals of 10"-20" will be possible with the heaviest rain bands.  

On Thursday afternoon and Friday the system will continue to move westward/northward.  Heavy rain - some tornadoes - will be possible across portions of Mississippi, southwest Tennessee, Arkansas and the Missouri Ozarks/southern Missouri.  

On Friday into Sunday the entire system will move north/northeast and eventually east across portions of the Missouri Valley into Illinois/Indiana/Kentucky.  Locally heavy downpours will be possible in our region from Isaac.  Monitor updated forecasts for possible watches/warnings.  

If you have camping plans then please take a weather radio with you or closely monitor rapidly changing weather conditions.  Tropical systems can produce heavy rainfall in short periods of time.

There continues to be questions surrounding the exact track of Isaac.  Regardless of where the low actually tracks - there will be moisture moving into our region.  Being a holiday weekend - consider having alternative plans in the event showers and thunderstorms move into our local counties.

The best chance for rain in our local counties will likely be on Friday night/Saturday into Sunday.

Here is the GFS Model - this is the morning run - the colors represent rainfall totals.  Again - see how the system will move northwest eventually - then move north - then curve to the northeast as the trough and cold front picks it up.  

This is ONE models idea of how much rain will fall.  Click the image for the full size view.


The threat for severe weather will need to be monitored.  Tropical systems are well known for producing tornadoes - even as they track well inland.  This is something that will need to be monitored over the coming days.  I think the better chance for a few tornadoes would be over Arkansas and Missouri Ozarks - Thursday/Friday - perhaps into Saturday. 

On Friday night into Sunday - there could be some reports of gusty winds and isolated tornadoes a bit further east into Illinois/Indiana and perhaps even Kentucky.  Isolated being the key word here.  Tropical systems can be tricky - as I have stated above.  Monitor updated forecasts.

Track Isaac here - on our Tropical Weather Page  


Check the Facebook page for more frequent updates.

We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more!  Click here 
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.


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Want to learn more about how to use our radars?  I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 120 hours.  This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected.  Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.


Remember that thunderstorms often produce locally heavy rainfall amounts.  The map below gives you a general idea of precipitation 

This is the official rainfall forecast from the Hydrological Prediction Center - keep in mind that the remnants of a tropical system can producing locally heavier rainfall totals - this is a general/broad-brush idea of how the rainfall will unfold.  Again - track is KEY.






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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time.  Those maps can be viewed here.  
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.


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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here

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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in 
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here

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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention).  I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible.  Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here

 
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1.  Focus right now will be on Isaac.  Otherwise - a few cold fronts will be possible over the coming 10-15 day period.  That means a couple of chances for rain and storms - and temperatures should not be too bad - perhaps normal to above normal ahead of the fronts with normal to below normal behind each front.

To track Isaac - click here


Latest drought information:
DROUGHT INFORMATION - CLICK HERE 



Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here


If you are a weather enthusiast then I recommend listening to WeatherBrains each week!  For a more in-depth look at what is happening in meteorology.




Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio.  Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event.  I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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