I am in summer mode - that means I try to update every other day or every 2-3 days. If the weather is active then I will update the forecast as needed. Check back for updated graphics, as well.
For more frequent updates check visit my weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
This blog is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
.
.
Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
Wind: Southerly 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - less than 30%-40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.50" with locally heavy amounts in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Thursday: Warm - partly cloudy with a chance
for a few thunderstorms
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the middle to upper 90s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southerly 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - less than 30%-40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.50" with locally heavy amounts in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Thursday night: Partly cloudy with a good chance for showers and thunderstorms. a few storms could be on the heavy side producing locally heavy downpours, frequent lightning, gusty winds, and hail. A small chance for severe thunderstorms with winds of 58 mph or greater and/or 1" hail - tornado threat should be fairly low.
Wind: Winds turning towards the west northwest at 10-20 mph - gusty at times
Precipitation probability - 30%-40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.50" with locally heavy amounts in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Friday: Partly sunny - windy at times
Wind: Northerly winds at 10-20 mph and gusty
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: Northerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - less than 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - less than 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
.
Wind: Easterly winds turning southerly at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - less than 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is medium
Sunday night: Mostly clear
Below normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower to middle 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - less than 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is medium
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
.
.
Below normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle to upper 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.Wind: Winds turning towards the west northwest at 10-20 mph - gusty at times
Precipitation probability - 30%-40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.50" with locally heavy amounts in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Friday: Partly sunny - windy at times
Below normal temperatures
Highs: in the lower to middle 80s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.Wind: Northerly winds at 10-20 mph and gusty
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Friday night: Mostly clear skies
Below normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 50s to lower 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.Wind: Northerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - less than 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
.
Saturday: Mostly sunny- some puffy cumulus clouds possible
Below normal temperatures
Highs: in the 82-86 degree range | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.Below normal temperatures
Wind: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - less than 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
.
Saturday night: Partly cloudy
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 50s to lower 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.
Wind: Northeast winds of 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - less than 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Northeast winds of 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - less than 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Sunday: Partly cloudy
Near normal temperatures
Highs: mostly in the middle to upper 80s | Normal
highs for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.Near normal temperatures
Wind: Easterly winds turning southerly at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - less than 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Sunday night: Mostly clear
Below normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower to middle 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - less than 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is medium
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
.
.
Biggest concern will be thunderstorm chances on Thursday into Thursday night. Right now it appears there will be at least a chance that a few storms become severe with damaging winds and hail. The tornado risk appears to be low - but not zero. Lightning will also, of course, be a concern for any outdoor school activities or outdoor events in general.
The main time frame for severe weather would be 6 pm through 1 am. Small chances before that time and lesser chances after that time frame.
I am posting information about the drought on the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
.
Monitor weather conditions on Thursday into Thursday night in the event a few of the thunderstorms become severe. Remember that a severe thunderstorm - by definition - is one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, 1" or larger hail, and/or a tornado.
The wild card in this update will be whether or not a few of the thunderstorms become severe on Thursday into Thursday night along and ahead of a cold front.
.
.
.
No major changes
.
.
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
.
..
Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here. I also strongly encourage you to FRIEND some of the local media meteorologists - I follow all of them and so should you.
.
---
The forecast for severe or extreme weather
.
The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
.
Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
Thursday: A few storms could become severe with high winds and hail. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Thursday night: A few storms could become severe with high winds and hail. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.
Friday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Saturday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Perhaps a few
.
For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Saturday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Perhaps a few
.
For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
or
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
.
.
Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
Thursday - No
Thursday night - Monitor for updates and possible watches
Friday - No
Friday night - No
Saturday - No
Saturday night - No
Sunday - No
Monday - Monitor
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
.
Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
Thursday - No
Thursday night - Monitor for updates and possible watches
Friday - No
Friday night - No
Saturday - No
Saturday night - No
Sunday - No
Monday - Monitor
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
.
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
.
The
links above are interactive and
you can move
around the United States by
simply clicking on the
national map - or
from the pull down menu
where it says regions and
US States.
.
To view the interactive warning map - click here.
.
.
You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
.
.
The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
.
To view the interactive warning map - click here.
.
You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
.
The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
.
This
forecast
analysis covers far southern
Illinois, southeast
Missouri,
southwest Indiana,
western Kentucky, and
northwest
Tennessee
.
HEADLINES: A cold front will move into our region on Thursday - this front will bring a few showers and thunderstorms back into the region.
It appears the best chance for thunderstorms will be along the cold front on Thursday night.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed our area in a risk zone for severe thunderstorms on Thursday with a focus on Thursday night. Expect a line of thunderstorms to form on Thursday afternoon to our north and then move south/southeast into our local counties. We will monitor an area of low pressure that will form over southeast Missouri on Thursday afternoon and track northeast. Thunderstorms that form in this area and move northeast could produce severe weather, as well.
Some questions remain as to the areal coverage of storms on Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. Best advice is to monitor for updates.
A few watches and warnings will be possible with this system - so listen for updates if you have any concerns.
Here is the Storm Prediction Centers risk outline for Thursday and Thursday night - the orange area represents where some severe storms are likely to occur. The yellow represents general thunderstorms - but likely below severe limits.
Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or greater, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Temperatures will cool down behind the front on Friday into the weekend - a warming trend will begin around Sunday or Monday.
Let's take a look at a few maps from wright-weather.com - these are dew point maps for Thursday and Saturday. The higher the dew points the muggier it feels outside. Check out the difference between Thursday (ahead of the cold front) and Saturday (behind the cold front)
MUCH nicer air mass behind the incoming cold front.
Click image for full size view
Temperatures will likely dip into the 50s on Friday night and perhaps Saturday night. This will be some of the coolest air since perhaps June. The air mass will feel MUCH nicer than recent weeks.
Temperatures will already start to rebound on Sunday - more hot weather is possible next week with a NW flow - the NW flow should bring a few thunderstorm chances from time to time. Perhaps as early as Sunday or Sunday night - will need to monitor and fine tune that part of the forecast.
We aren't finished with the 90s - we still have all of August to go and I would not be surprised at all to see on and off hot spells in September. Historically that has been how droughts have played out.
Winds will also be gusty on Thursday night into Friday - northerly winds behind the front will gust over 20 mph at times.
As you know 2012 has been an extreme year - but just how extreme has it been across the U.S. when you compare it to other years?
This graphic sums it up - it has been one of the more extreme years on record - going back to 1910. This chart measures the climate extreme index.
It has also been a record warm 12 month period for the nation - as this chart below will show you. Click on it for the real size view.
The 12 months ending with July was the warmest such period since modern recordkeeping began in 1895, and the January-July 2012 period was also the warmest on record. The top 13 warmest 12-month periods since 1895 have all occurred since 1999.
Let's take a look at some maps from the High Plains Climate Center - these maps are simply incredible. For the month of July we baked - little rainfall fell in the region. Areas to our east did a little bit better with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
This first map shows you the "percent of normal precipitation" - so for example if you normally receive 1" of rain and only 0.10" fell then that would be 10% of normal rainfall. There were some big departure numbers during the month of July.
The
above map shows you how much precipitation fell. Keep in mind that a
few spots did pick up heavy downpours during thunderstorms - but hey
were widely scattered in nature.
Here are some temperature maps - below. These are for the month of July. Again showing the extreme departures from normal.
If
a month were to be 1-3 degrees above or below normal - that is
noteworthy. To see departures in the 4-5-6-7 range above normal is
simply incredible.
If you were interested in hurricane Ernesto - he has moved ashore in Mexico. Winds were sustained at around 75-85 mph at landfall. As I said earlier in the week - it is very unlikely that this system will have any impact on our region. We will watch and see where the moisture ends up tracking over the coming days. Occasionally you can have a system hit Mexico and eventually bring higher moisture values into Texas.
Click the image for a full size view
Ernesto's track (as of this update) - south south south
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
.
HEADLINES: A cold front will move into our region on Thursday - this front will bring a few showers and thunderstorms back into the region.
It appears the best chance for thunderstorms will be along the cold front on Thursday night.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed our area in a risk zone for severe thunderstorms on Thursday with a focus on Thursday night. Expect a line of thunderstorms to form on Thursday afternoon to our north and then move south/southeast into our local counties. We will monitor an area of low pressure that will form over southeast Missouri on Thursday afternoon and track northeast. Thunderstorms that form in this area and move northeast could produce severe weather, as well.
Some questions remain as to the areal coverage of storms on Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. Best advice is to monitor for updates.
A few watches and warnings will be possible with this system - so listen for updates if you have any concerns.
Here is the Storm Prediction Centers risk outline for Thursday and Thursday night - the orange area represents where some severe storms are likely to occur. The yellow represents general thunderstorms - but likely below severe limits.
Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or greater, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Temperatures will cool down behind the front on Friday into the weekend - a warming trend will begin around Sunday or Monday.
Let's take a look at a few maps from wright-weather.com - these are dew point maps for Thursday and Saturday. The higher the dew points the muggier it feels outside. Check out the difference between Thursday (ahead of the cold front) and Saturday (behind the cold front)
MUCH nicer air mass behind the incoming cold front.
Click image for full size view
Temperatures will likely dip into the 50s on Friday night and perhaps Saturday night. This will be some of the coolest air since perhaps June. The air mass will feel MUCH nicer than recent weeks.
Temperatures will already start to rebound on Sunday - more hot weather is possible next week with a NW flow - the NW flow should bring a few thunderstorm chances from time to time. Perhaps as early as Sunday or Sunday night - will need to monitor and fine tune that part of the forecast.
We aren't finished with the 90s - we still have all of August to go and I would not be surprised at all to see on and off hot spells in September. Historically that has been how droughts have played out.
Winds will also be gusty on Thursday night into Friday - northerly winds behind the front will gust over 20 mph at times.
As you know 2012 has been an extreme year - but just how extreme has it been across the U.S. when you compare it to other years?
This graphic sums it up - it has been one of the more extreme years on record - going back to 1910. This chart measures the climate extreme index.
It has also been a record warm 12 month period for the nation - as this chart below will show you. Click on it for the real size view.
The 12 months ending with July was the warmest such period since modern recordkeeping began in 1895, and the January-July 2012 period was also the warmest on record. The top 13 warmest 12-month periods since 1895 have all occurred since 1999.
Let's take a look at some maps from the High Plains Climate Center - these maps are simply incredible. For the month of July we baked - little rainfall fell in the region. Areas to our east did a little bit better with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
This first map shows you the "percent of normal precipitation" - so for example if you normally receive 1" of rain and only 0.10" fell then that would be 10% of normal rainfall. There were some big departure numbers during the month of July.
Here are some temperature maps - below. These are for the month of July. Again showing the extreme departures from normal.
If you were interested in hurricane Ernesto - he has moved ashore in Mexico. Winds were sustained at around 75-85 mph at landfall. As I said earlier in the week - it is very unlikely that this system will have any impact on our region. We will watch and see where the moisture ends up tracking over the coming days. Occasionally you can have a system hit Mexico and eventually bring higher moisture values into Texas.
Click the image for a full size view
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
.
.
We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
---
We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
---
We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
---
We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
---
We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
.
Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
.
.
-----------------------------
.
.
Let's
check
out the how much rain is
forecast to fall
over the next 48
hours. This map gives
you a general
broad brushed idea of
what can be
expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
.
If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
Remember that thunderstorms often produce locally heavy rainfall amounts. The map below gives you a general idea of precipitation
.
If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
Remember that thunderstorms often produce locally heavy rainfall amounts. The map below gives you a general idea of precipitation
.
.
You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
.
You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
.
Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
.
You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
.
You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
.
Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
.
.
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
.
To view recent records that have been broken - click here
.
.
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
.
To view recent records that have been broken - click here
.
.
---
.
.
.
Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
-----------------------------
Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
-----------------------------
.
1. We
will be in a northwest flow pattern - that means temperatures won't be
as hot and there will be periodic chances for precipitation.
DROUGHT INFORMATION - CLICK HERE
Here are the latest 6-10 day temperature and 8-14 day temperature outlooks - see the date stamps at the top of each image
And here is the latest 6-10 day precipitation and 8-14 day precipitation forecast maps - not good news
And the latest AUGUST forecast maps
Temperature and precipitation
Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here
If you are a weather enthusiast then I recommend listening to WeatherBrains each week! For a more in-depth look at what is happening in meteorology.
DROUGHT INFORMATION - CLICK HERE
Here are the latest 6-10 day temperature and 8-14 day temperature outlooks - see the date stamps at the top of each image
And here is the latest 6-10 day precipitation and 8-14 day precipitation forecast maps - not good news
And the latest AUGUST forecast maps
Temperature and precipitation
Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here
If you are a weather enthusiast then I recommend listening to WeatherBrains each week! For a more in-depth look at what is happening in meteorology.
Now is a GREAT
time to buy a NOAA All Hazards
Weather Radio. Better to have one
before storms
strike than to be without one
during an event. I recommend the
Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
.
Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
.
.
Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
.
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
.
All other states- Click Here
.
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
.
Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
.
.
No comments:
Post a Comment