I am in summer mode - that means I try to update every other day or every 2-3 days. If the weather is active then I will update the forecast as needed. Check back for updated graphics, as well.
For more frequent updates check visit my weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
Thursday: Partly sunny - thunderstorms likely - a few storms will produce hail and high winds.
Wind: Southerly winds at 10-20 mph
Precipitation probability - 60%-70% | Rainfall totals: scattered 0.25"-0.50" with heavier amounts in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: Southwest winds turning northwest at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 60%-90% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.75" but locally heavier in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: Northerly winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" but locally heavier in thunderstorms - once again some areas will remain dry.
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wind: Northerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Saturday night: Some evening clouds - then partly cloudy skies. Cool temperatures.
Below normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle to upper 50s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.
Wind: Northerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - less than 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Northerly at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: scattered 0.25"
Sunday night: Mostly clear skies.
Below normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 50s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.
Wind: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the upper 80s to lower 90s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 86 degrees.Wind: Southerly winds at 10-20 mph
Precipitation probability - 60%-70% | Rainfall totals: scattered 0.25"-0.50" with heavier amounts in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Thursday night: Widespread thunderstorms likely - a few storms could be on the heavy side with gusty winds and hail.
Below normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.Wind: Southwest winds turning northwest at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 60%-90% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.75" but locally heavier in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Friday: Mostly cloud during the morning hours - then becoming partly sunny in the afternoon - a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms - mainly during the morning hours.
Below normal temperatures
Highs: in the 76-84 degree range | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 86 degrees.Below normal temperatures
Wind: Northerly winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" but locally heavier in thunderstorms - once again some areas will remain dry.
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Friday night: Decreasing clouds and cooler
Below normal temperatures
Below normal temperatures
Lows: in the 50-55 degree range | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.
Wind: North winds of 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: North winds of 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Saturday: Partly sunny in the morning with increasing clouds during the afternoon - a small chance for a sprinkle. Cooler temperatures
Below normal temperatures
Highs: mostly in the lower 80s | Normal
highs for this time of the year are around 86 degrees.Below normal temperatures
Wind: Northerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Saturday night: Some evening clouds - then partly cloudy skies. Cool temperatures.
Below normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle to upper 50s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.
Wind: Northerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - less than 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Sunday: Partly cloudy skies. A slight chance for a stray shower/thunder
Near normal temperatures
Highs: mostly in the middle 80s | Normal
highs for this time of the year are around 86 degrees.Near normal temperatures
Wind: Northerly at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: scattered 0.25"
Sunday night: Mostly clear skies.
Below normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 50s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.
Wind: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Thunderstorms will be possible in the area on Thursday afternoon into Friday morning - a few of the storms could be on the heavy side. There is a small risk for severe thunderstorms - remember a severe thunderstorm is one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, 1" hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The tornado risk is very very low with this system - wind fields are not impressive. There really isn't that much going for this system - instability will be there but wind fields are not. Forcing along the front may be the best trigger for the thunderstorms. I would imagine that gusty winds would be the main concern with the line of storms.
Frequent lightning is possible with any thunderstorms that form - cloud to ground lightning has been a problem. Brief heavy downpours will also be possible.
Once again not everyone will see rain - as has been the case the last few months. Feast or famine.
I am posting information about the drought on the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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Monitor for updates on Thursday afternoon and night - there could be a few strong to severe storms.
Wild card in this forecast will be the overnight lows on Saturday morning and Sunday morning - esp over southern IL - can this atmosphere produce some upper 40s and lower 50s? I think it is not out of the question.
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No major changes
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here. I also strongly encourage you to FRIEND some of the local media meteorologists - I follow all of them and so should you.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
Thursday: A few storms could produce hail and high winds. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Thursday night: A few storms could produce hail and high winds. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes- in the morning hours
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Friday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Saturday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Saturday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Isolated
Sunday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Isolated
Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Isolated
Sunday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Isolated
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
or
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
Thursday - very likely
Thursday night - very likely
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
Thursday - very likely
Thursday night - very likely
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The
links above are interactive and
you can move
around the United States by
simply clicking on the
national map - or
from the pull down menu
where it says regions and
US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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This
forecast
analysis covers far southern
Illinois, southeast
Missouri,
southwest Indiana,
western Kentucky, and
northwest
Tennessee
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HEADLINES: Who ordered another cold front? :) - I have great news - yet another in a series of cold fronts is already advancing towards our region. The front will push into our local counties on Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Along and ahead of the front will be yet another chance for showers and locally heavy thunderstorms! Once again it is possible that some areas miss out. Keep that in mind - same as the last few weeks/month.
We had a nice shelf cloud along the leading edge of a thunderstorm on Monday morning - the storm produced frequent lightning, brief heavy rain, and gusty winds. Not severe - but a decent thunderstorms for 7 am. I took this photo off the back porch - Massac County, Illinois.
Click image for real size view
The front will be to our west on Thursday afternoon - I expect a line of showers and thunderstorms to form from Iowa/Illinois and then southwest into Missouri and Oklahoma/Arkansas. The line will push eastward during the afternoon/evening and overnight hours.
The atmosphere will have weak wind fields on Thursday into Friday morning - that means that the threat for widespread severe weather is small. There will be forcing/lift along the front and some instability - unstable air. With that in mind - there will be a chance that a couple of storms could produce high winds and hail. Again - the threat appears low - overall. I will monitor and update the Facebook page with frequent threads on Thursday afternoon/night (if need be).
Here is the area the Storm Prediction Center has outlined for severe weather - the orange area represents where a few severe thunderstorms will be possible. The yellow area represents where general thunderstorms are possible. General means mostly below severe levels.
PWAT values ahead of the front - the bright colors over our region - will be sufficient for some locally heavy rainfall. You can see where the front is located - the PWAT values drop off dramatically behind the front as drier air moves into the region (see the low up in Canada with the curl).
Click image for real size view - image courtesy of wright-weather.com
Friday - showers and storms will come to an end and cooler air will filter into the region. Saturday and Sunday should be 99% dry - just a small chance for a sprinkle. Temperatures will be much cooler and dew points will be low. Low dew points means that it will feel GREAT outside - it will not be muggy. Highs will only be in the 70s and 80s. Low temperatures will be in the 50s on both Saturday and Sunday morning.
Check out the trough in the east for this weekend (graphic below). Low pressure, which rotates counterclockwise, will push the jet stream south - that means we will be in a northwest wind flow - that means cooler temperatures coming down from Canada! Just the way we like it.
Click image for full size view - image courtesy of wright-weather.com
The bright colors indicate wind speed at the 500 mb level (well above the surface) - those winds are moving from the northwest towards the southeast and then curving back up to the northeast - a trough appears as a bowl like feature. Imagine the jet stream as a tunnel of wind - bend it and you have a trough.
By Wednesday the trough has weakened and moved off to the east of our region - we will be between two troughs - a ridge will build in and bring warmer temperatures. You can see the next trough/storm system approaching from the west in this graphic below.
Thunderstorms will again be possible on Thursday/Friday or Saturday of next week - a few heavy.
Click image for full size view
High temperature forecasts for Thursday-Sunday
The drought continues across our region. There have been scattered showers and thunderstorms over the last few weeks. Not everyone has picked up measurable rainfall. Keep in mind that the evaporation rate is quite high - that means whatever rain does fall will easily evaporate. It takes quite a bit of rain to break a drought. We have not even put a dent in the drought conditions. It will take time.
Check out how much of the nation is covered in drought.
Let's take a look at this graphic - this chart shows you how much of the nation is wet or dry. You can see that a large chunk of the nation is dry.
And now let's take a look at the Z index for corn and soybeans - this chart goes back to the 1900s. You can compare this drought to other droughts and its impact on crops. This is absolutely a big deal for the world - food prices and supply. The U.S.A. isn't the only country having weather problems. That makes it even worse. You can't compare todays crop to that of ten years ago because the worlds population has increased.
Click image for real size view
And as climate central pointed out - the drought is having major impacts on agricultural producers in the High Plains and Midwest, particularly corn and soybean farmers. According to the report, the combination of extreme heat and dry weather during July took a heavy toll on crops. July was the warmest month on record in the contiguous U.S., beating out the Dust Bowl-era year of 1936 for that dubious distinction. Excessive heat increases the transport of moisture out of soils and vegetation, and into the atmosphere, thereby drying the environment faster than would occur in cooler conditions.
The main corn and soybean agricultural belt in the U.S. experienced its second-warmest and sixth-driest April-to-July period, coming in fourth according to one of the Palmer Drought indices, after 1934, 1936, and 1988. As of the end of July, about 86 percent of this vital agricultural region was experiencing moderate-to-extreme drought, which trailed only the droughts of 1988 and the 1930s.
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
.
HEADLINES: Who ordered another cold front? :) - I have great news - yet another in a series of cold fronts is already advancing towards our region. The front will push into our local counties on Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Along and ahead of the front will be yet another chance for showers and locally heavy thunderstorms! Once again it is possible that some areas miss out. Keep that in mind - same as the last few weeks/month.
We had a nice shelf cloud along the leading edge of a thunderstorm on Monday morning - the storm produced frequent lightning, brief heavy rain, and gusty winds. Not severe - but a decent thunderstorms for 7 am. I took this photo off the back porch - Massac County, Illinois.
Click image for real size view
The atmosphere will have weak wind fields on Thursday into Friday morning - that means that the threat for widespread severe weather is small. There will be forcing/lift along the front and some instability - unstable air. With that in mind - there will be a chance that a couple of storms could produce high winds and hail. Again - the threat appears low - overall. I will monitor and update the Facebook page with frequent threads on Thursday afternoon/night (if need be).
Here is the area the Storm Prediction Center has outlined for severe weather - the orange area represents where a few severe thunderstorms will be possible. The yellow area represents where general thunderstorms are possible. General means mostly below severe levels.
Click image for real size view - image courtesy of wright-weather.com
Friday - showers and storms will come to an end and cooler air will filter into the region. Saturday and Sunday should be 99% dry - just a small chance for a sprinkle. Temperatures will be much cooler and dew points will be low. Low dew points means that it will feel GREAT outside - it will not be muggy. Highs will only be in the 70s and 80s. Low temperatures will be in the 50s on both Saturday and Sunday morning.
Check out the trough in the east for this weekend (graphic below). Low pressure, which rotates counterclockwise, will push the jet stream south - that means we will be in a northwest wind flow - that means cooler temperatures coming down from Canada! Just the way we like it.
Click image for full size view - image courtesy of wright-weather.com
The bright colors indicate wind speed at the 500 mb level (well above the surface) - those winds are moving from the northwest towards the southeast and then curving back up to the northeast - a trough appears as a bowl like feature. Imagine the jet stream as a tunnel of wind - bend it and you have a trough.
Thunderstorms will again be possible on Thursday/Friday or Saturday of next week - a few heavy.
Click image for full size view
The drought continues across our region. There have been scattered showers and thunderstorms over the last few weeks. Not everyone has picked up measurable rainfall. Keep in mind that the evaporation rate is quite high - that means whatever rain does fall will easily evaporate. It takes quite a bit of rain to break a drought. We have not even put a dent in the drought conditions. It will take time.
Check out how much of the nation is covered in drought.
And now let's take a look at the Z index for corn and soybeans - this chart goes back to the 1900s. You can compare this drought to other droughts and its impact on crops. This is absolutely a big deal for the world - food prices and supply. The U.S.A. isn't the only country having weather problems. That makes it even worse. You can't compare todays crop to that of ten years ago because the worlds population has increased.
Click image for real size view
Above: Palmer Z Index for the primary corn and soybean growing area of the
U.S., showing where the 2012 drought ranks compared to other droughts
since 1900. Click on image for a larger version.
Credit: NCDC.
Credit: NCDC.
And as climate central pointed out - the drought is having major impacts on agricultural producers in the High Plains and Midwest, particularly corn and soybean farmers. According to the report, the combination of extreme heat and dry weather during July took a heavy toll on crops. July was the warmest month on record in the contiguous U.S., beating out the Dust Bowl-era year of 1936 for that dubious distinction. Excessive heat increases the transport of moisture out of soils and vegetation, and into the atmosphere, thereby drying the environment faster than would occur in cooler conditions.
The main corn and soybean agricultural belt in the U.S. experienced its second-warmest and sixth-driest April-to-July period, coming in fourth according to one of the Palmer Drought indices, after 1934, 1936, and 1988. As of the end of July, about 86 percent of this vital agricultural region was experiencing moderate-to-extreme drought, which trailed only the droughts of 1988 and the 1930s.
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's
check
out the how much rain is
forecast to fall
over the next 48
hours. This map gives
you a general
broad brushed idea of
what can be
expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
Remember that thunderstorms often produce locally heavy rainfall amounts. The map below gives you a general idea of precipitation
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
Remember that thunderstorms often produce locally heavy rainfall amounts. The map below gives you a general idea of precipitation
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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1. Northwest
flow continues! That means temperatures won't be too hot and we will
continue to experience rain chances on and off over the coming weeks.
DROUGHT INFORMATION - CLICK HERE
Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here
If you are a weather enthusiast then I recommend listening to WeatherBrains each week! For a more in-depth look at what is happening in meteorology.
DROUGHT INFORMATION - CLICK HERE
Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here
If you are a weather enthusiast then I recommend listening to WeatherBrains each week! For a more in-depth look at what is happening in meteorology.
Now is a GREAT
time to buy a NOAA All Hazards
Weather Radio. Better to have one
before storms
strike than to be without one
during an event. I recommend the
Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
.
All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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