August 12th-16th: Decent temps - some rain chances

August 12th-August 16th - 2012 Sunday through Thursday update
I am in summer mode - that means I try to update every other day or every 2-3 days.  If the weather is active then I will update the forecast as needed. Check back for updated graphics, as well.

For more frequent updates check visit my weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.

 
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...


Sunday:  Some clouds mixed in with the sunshine - temperatures will be near seasonal levels.
Near normal temperatures
Highs: in the upper 80s to around 90  |  Normal highs for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.
Wind:  Southerly 5 mph 
Precipitation probability - 0%  | Rainfall totals:  0"

Confidence in this forecast is very high
 
Sunday night:  Partly cloudy skies - a chance for a few thunderstorms after midnight
Below normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 60s |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.
Wind:  South winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 20%  | Rainfall totals:  scattered
0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is very high 
 

Monday:  Partly sunny - scattered thunderstorms possible
Below normal temperatures
Highs: in the middle to upper 80s  |  Normal highs for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.
Wind:  South winds turning to the west at 10-15 mph 
Precipitation probability - 40%-60%  | Rainfall totals:
scattered 0.25"-0.50" but locally heavier in thunderstorms - keep in mind that not everyone will experience rain (same as the last few weeks)
Confidence in this forecast is very high

 
Monday night:  Partly cloudy skies - a small chance for lingering showers and storms over our eastern counties.
Below normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower to middle 60s  |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 68  degrees.
Wind:  Northwest winds at 5-10 mph 
Precipitation probability - 20% chance early then 0% late  | Rainfall totals: 
scattered 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Tuesday:  Quite a few clouds
Below normal temperatures
Highs:  in the 82-86 degree range | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.
Wind: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0%  |  Rainfall totals:  0" 

Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Tuesday night:  Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy with some light sprinkles possible
Below normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower middle 60s  |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.
Wind:  Northeast winds of 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0%  |  Rainfall totals: 0" 

Confidence in this forecast is high 
 
Wednesday:  Partly cloudy and warmer - some morning fog possible
Near normal to above normal temperatures
Highs: mostly in the upper 80s and lower 90s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.
Wind: Easterly winds turning southerly at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - less than 10%  |  Rainfall totals:  0"  
Confidence in this forecast is high

Wednesday night: 
A few clouds
Near normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 60s |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.
Wind:  Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - less than 10%  |  Rainfall totals: 0"

Confidence in this forecast is high

Thursday:  Partly cloudy - a few thunderstorms possible - mainly during the afternoon
Near normal to below normal temperatures
Highs: mostly in the middle to upper 80s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.
Wind: Southerly at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 30%  |  Rainfall totals:  scattered 0.25"  
Confidence in this forecast is high

Thursday night: 
Partly cloudy with some thunderstorms likely
Near normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 60s |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.
Wind:  Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 60%  |  Rainfall totals: scattered 0.25"but locally heavier amounts in thunderstorms

Confidence in this forecast is high


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The main concern will be thunderstorms on Monday.  Monitor for updates.

I am posting information about the drought on the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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Monitor for updates on Monday - there could be a few strong to severe storms.



The wild card in this forecast will be the threat for a few thunderstorms to become severe on Monday ahead of an area of low pressure and a cold front.
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No major changes

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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local area
Click Here.  I also strongly encourage you to FRIEND some of the local media meteorologists - I follow all of them and so should you.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather

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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado.  More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here


Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Sunday: 
Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms
No

Sunday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Sunday night: 
Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  No


Monday:  A few severe thunderstorms will be possible - mainly during Monday afternoon and evening.  No snow or ice.
Monday:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  Yes
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Monday night : 
A few severe thunderstorms will be possible - mainly during Monday afternoon and evening
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Monday night:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? 
Yes early in the evening
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Tuesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Tuesday: 
Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms
No
 

Tuesday night :  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice. 
Tuesday night:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
   

Wednesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice. 
Wednesday:  Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstormsNo
 

Wednesday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: 
Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  No


For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
or 
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here  

To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
 


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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?


Sunday - No
Monday - Possible
Tuesday - No
Wednesday - No
Thursday - possible

Thursday night - possible

To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here  Alternative link - click here
 
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To view all watches and warnings in IL -  Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here

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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning  map - click here.

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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here


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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site.  For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.

 
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
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HEADLINES: A cold front will approach the region on Monday - scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front.  There could be a few severe thunderstorms.  The threat for severe storms will depend on instability.  Right now it appears that damaging winds and a few reports of hail will be the main concern.  Frequent lightning and heavy downpours, as well.


Not everyone will experience rainfall - same as the last few weeks.

Rain chances will come to an end on Monday night.  Temperatures for the upcoming week will be near seasonable levels.  That means mostly in the 80s and approaching 90 on Wednesday.  Overnight lows will mostly be in the 60s.

Another chance for showers and thunderstorms will arrive on Thursday into Friday.  Cooler weather is likely by next weekend.
 

We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more!  Click here 
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.


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Want to learn more about how to use our radars?  I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 72 hours.  This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected.  Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.


Remember that thunderstorms often produce locally heavy rainfall amounts.  The map below gives you a general idea of precipitation 


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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time.  Those maps can be viewed here.  
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.


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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here

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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in 
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here

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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention).  I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible.  Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here

 
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1.  Northwest flow continues!  That means temperatures won't be too hot and we will continue to experience rain chances on and off over the coming weeks.

DROUGHT INFORMATION - CLICK HERE 



Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here


If you are a weather enthusiast then I recommend listening to WeatherBrains each week!  For a more in-depth look at what is happening in meteorology.




Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio.  Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event.  I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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