January 21, 2013: Cold weather - precip chances late week

January 21st, 2013

For more frequent updates visit my weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.



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Here comes the cold air!  Monday into Thursday will bring bitterly cold air.  The potential is there for single digit readings over some of our counties by Tuesday morning.

Highs on Monday and Tuesday will likely not get above freezing.  

A winter precipitation event will likely develop by Thursday and Friday bringing a wintry mix to the region.  For my personal thoughts on all of the above please visit the Facebook page.  I am posting more frequently there with graphics and information.

Spot NWS forecast for your location (keep in mind that these forecasts on the point and click page are the NWS forecast thoughts - my thoughts are below and/or on my weather Facebook page) -- Click here - then enter your zip code for the most up to date spot forecast.

For more frequent updates visit my weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.





This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western  Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee

HEADLINES:  Cold weather has arrived in our region and it may stick around awhile.

The coldest morning will likely be Tuesday.  I am forecasting 8-14 degrees over our northern and northeast counties.  The Metropolis and Paducah area should see readings in the 10-14 degree range.

Temperatures will likely not rise above freezing today or tomorrow.  Wednesday will also be cold.

The cold air should stick around the rest of the week. 

WINTER STORM DEVELOPING FOR THE MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK?

A developing winter storm will spread precipitation into our region on Thursday/Thursday night.  Right now it appears that a mixture of sleet, snow, and freezing rain will be possible beginning on Thursday/Thursday night. The precipitation may continue into Friday.  Still a bit early for details. 

There is disagreement on the model data as to how cold/warm Thursday and Friday will end up being.  I am forecasting it to remain cold enough for a mostly frozen precipitation event in our local region.  If the track of the storm changes or the intensity then we can revisit the topic.

Stay updated on the latest information as we draw closer to the event.  There is low confidence in how this forecast unfolds.

Colder air will return on Friday into next weekend behind the system.  

Monitoring another system for next Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday - long way off on that one.  Stay tuned.
        
For more frequent updates and graphics view the Weather Facebook page here http://www.facebook.com/beaudodsonweather     




Cold temperatures this week - low wind chills.

 
For more frequent updates visit my weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.


A potential winter precipitation event for Thursday into Friday.  Still a bit early for details on that event.




Track of the winter storm on Thursday/Friday.  Monitor updates.


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Keep in mind that these forecasts on the point and click page are the NWS forecast thoughts - my thoughts are below and/or on my weather Facebook page.

 Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here

We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more!  Click here 

Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms.   Click here to join
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado.
 
Monday
Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.

Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits?  No

Tuesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits?  No

Wednesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits?  No

For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
or 
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here  

To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here


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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?

Monday - No
Tuesday - No 
Wednesday - No
Thursday - No
Friday - No   

To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here  Alternative link - click here 

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To view all watches and warnings in IL -  Click Here 
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here 
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national        map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning  map - click here.






A winter weather event is possible on Thursday and Friday in and near our area.  A mixture of freezing rain, sleet, and snow will be possible.  Portions of the area may turn to plain rain on Thursday night - depending on the track of the system.  This would most likely occur over our southern counties.

There is still quite a bit of disagreement on how the Thursday/Friday storm system develops.  The track and intensity of the area of low pressure will play a big factor in our sensible weather conditions.  If the system tracks further north then warmer air will move into our counties - the wintry mix would likely turn to rain.

Right now I am leaning towards a colder solution and a track further south - however, still several days away.  Low confidence in how the forecast unfolds.  Stay tuned. 

Monitor updated forecasts as we move through the week.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here

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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site.  For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.


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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site !
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  I have added all of eastern Kentucky, as well.

We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS ---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars?  Here is a video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall in our region.  This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected.  Remember the scale is at the top of the map.

Click the link below - then choose your the time period you are interested in! 

 CLICK HERE FOR THE RAINFALL GRAPHIC - then choose the time frame above the image



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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time.  Those maps can be viewed here.  

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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here 
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in 
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here 
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1.  Cold shots of air for the next 2 weeks.   

Latest drought information:
DROUGHT INFORMATION - CLICK HERE 

Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here

If you are a weather enthusiast then I recommend listening to WeatherBrains each week!  For a more in-depth look at what is happening in meteorology.





Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio.  Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event.  I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here 
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here 
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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