Wednesday evening into Thursday update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely - most likely widespread coverage will be over southeast Missouri into southern Indiana. Some locally heavy downpours possible - isolated hail.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower to middle 50s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest winds at 5 mph.
Precipitation probability - 40% southern counties and 80% central and northern counties | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.50" - locally heavier amounts where thunderstorms move slow or train over the same areas
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Thursday: Mostly cloudy and cooler - scattered showers and perhaps thunderstorms. A few storms could produce isolated severe weather.
Near normal temperatures
Highs: wide range from 50s over northern counties into the lower 70s for far southern counties degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.Near normal temperatures
Wind: Northeast winds at 10-15 mph and gusty at times
Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.50"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Thursday night: Mostly cloudy early - then becoming partly cloudy. Much cooler.
Near to below normal temperatures
Near to below normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 30s for north/northeast counties and in the 40s elsewhere | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.
Wind: Northerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% early | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Northerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% early | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Friday: Mostly sunny before noon - a few clouds during the afternoon. Cooler.
Near normal to below normal temperatures
Highs: around 60-66 degrees over the region | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.Wind: Northeast winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Thunderstorms this evening and overnight - isolated hail possible - lightning is the main concern. Locally heavy downpours.
Isolated severe weather possible on Thursday afternoon - hail is the main concern
I am not expecting any major severe weather - there could be an isolated severe storms - hail would be the main concern. Of course lightning is always possible with thunderstorms.
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Wild card in this forecast will be overnight lows on Friday morning - some of our counties could dip into the upper 30s. Widespread 40s in the area - a bit cooler than recent weeks!
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Updated severe storm forecast
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Wednesday night: Widespread severe weather is not forecast - an isolated severe storm can't be ruled out - hail would be the main concern.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Wednesday night: Widespread severe weather is not forecast - an isolated severe storm can't be ruled out - hail would be the main concern.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Thursday: Severe storms will be possible - mainly southern counties
Thursday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
.Thursday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Thursday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - Unlikely - but an isolated severe storm will be possible - slow moving cells
Thursday - Yes - southern counties
Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - Unlikely - but an isolated severe storm will be possible - slow moving cells
Thursday - Yes - southern counties
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
Monday - No
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
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HEADLINES: We did pick up some showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday night but they were not quite as widespread as expected. A few areas had brief heavy downpours.
Showers have also been slow to develop today - although as of this writing the radar was slowly starting to light up with returns.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
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HEADLINES: We did pick up some showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday night but they were not quite as widespread as expected. A few areas had brief heavy downpours.
Showers have also been slow to develop today - although as of this writing the radar was slowly starting to light up with returns.
Let's take a look at the visible and IR satellite imagery from this afternoon (Wednesday afternoon) - you can see the big thunderstorm complex along the Gulf of Mexico - the visible satellite shows a lot of sun in our region (this is helping to increase instability a bit)
A more general and widespread rain event is likely later this afternoon (Wednesday afternoon) into tonight. There is a boundary across parts of our area - precipitation has been more widespread north of the boundary over southeast Missouri into southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
Right now the severe weather risk appears low. Hail would be the main concern. No real changes from previous thoughts on that part of the forecast.
Lightning is, of course, always a concern - especially with any sporting or outdoor events. Monitor radars and if you hear thunder then move indoors.
Temperatures will be noticeably cooler over the next few days. Morning lows may even dip into the 30s on Friday morning - especially our northern and northeastern counties.
For the Easter weekend forecast - see the extended part (bottom of page)
Here are the temperature forecasts for the next few days - you will notice it will be cooler
Friday morning lows - below
There is a new web-site that I strongly encourage everyone to visit - these are the best tornado safety videos that I have seen online and available to the public. A lot of work went into these videos. Missouri StormAware - click here to view the videos
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Also don't forget the upcoming elite spotter classes -
The National Weather Service will be holding several advanced spotter classes over the coming weeks. I encourage you to sign up!
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Date Range: April 9th-14th
Event: Perhaps a shot at cooler air
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: A chance for a shot at cooler temperatures chances.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: April 13th-17th
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates. Possible cold air shots after storm passes.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
Date Range: April 17th-30th
Event: Unsettled weather - several cold frontal passages Possible cold air shots, as well.
Severe Risk: Yes - possible
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
Date Range: May 5th-11h
Event: Unsettled weather
Severe Risk: Possible
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: May 29th-June 3rd
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
More information on the long range cycle . .
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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1. Easter weekend will bring pleasant conditions for the most part. There will be a cold front moving into the region on Saturday night into Sunday morning. This front could spark a few showers or thunderstorms - right now it does not look like a washout and showers would likely be scattered in nature.
Saturday might be the pick day of the weekend. A few high clouds possible during the afternoon hours. Hopefully Sunday will see the front move out quickly. Monitor for updates.
Temperatures will be near normal to perhaps a bit above normal on both Saturday and Sunday.
Much cooler weather is possible next week with one or two shots of cooler/colder air. Would not be surprised to see temperatures dip into the 30s over parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley's - this will need to be monitored for agricultural interests.
It has been my forecast for several weeks now that we might look for an increase in the severe weather threat as we move towards the second/third week of April. There are several models now pointing/leaning that way, as well. Although we have been in a relatively quiet period over the last few weeks - a few hail events - that doesn't mean that the rest of spring will be quiet. We need to monitor the coming weeks.
Saturday might be the pick day of the weekend. A few high clouds possible during the afternoon hours. Hopefully Sunday will see the front move out quickly. Monitor for updates.
Temperatures will be near normal to perhaps a bit above normal on both Saturday and Sunday.
Much cooler weather is possible next week with one or two shots of cooler/colder air. Would not be surprised to see temperatures dip into the 30s over parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley's - this will need to be monitored for agricultural interests.
It has been my forecast for several weeks now that we might look for an increase in the severe weather threat as we move towards the second/third week of April. There are several models now pointing/leaning that way, as well. Although we have been in a relatively quiet period over the last few weeks - a few hail events - that doesn't mean that the rest of spring will be quiet. We need to monitor the coming weeks.
Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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