April 28th-29th: Storms possible - some strong

April 28th-29th - 2012

Saturday evening into Sunday update 


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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...

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Rest of this afternoon (Saturday):  Scattered showers and thunderstorms - some storms could be severe.  The best chance for storms will be over the NORTHERN half of the region - less chance as you move south.  Latest watches and warnings - click here

Highs: in the upper 70s and lower 80s -
Wind:  South winds at 5-10 mph.  
Precipitation probability - 60%   | Rainfall totals:  0.25" - locally higher amounts in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is very high

Saturday night:  Scattered showers and thunderstorms - some storms could be severe early in the evening.  Mainly NORTHERN counties - not as concerned about southern counties.   Latest watches and warnings - click here
Near normal temperatures

Lows: in the lower 60s - cooler over our northern counties |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.
Wind:  Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.  
Precipitation probability - 40%   | Rainfall totals:  0.25" in areas that receive rain - locally higher
Confidence in this forecast is very high

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Sunday:  Partly cloudy with a few showers and thunderstorms.  Again the main concern may be northern counties - southern counties may remain CAPPED - meaning storms can't form.  Will monitor and update.
Near normal temperatures

Highs:  around 75-80 degrees central/southern counties - a bit cooler over northern counties  | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 73 degrees.
Wind: South winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 40%  |  Rainfall totals:   0.25" with locally heavier amounts in thunderstorms  Confidence in this forecast is high

Sunday night:  Partly cloudy skies.  Warm.
Above normal temperatures

Lows: in the lower to middle 60s  temperatures will vary quite a bit over the region as a whole because of the frontal system near our local counties |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.
Wind:  Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10%  |  Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is medium

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Monday:  Partly cloudy - warm - a chance for thunderstorms - a few storms could be on the heavy side.  Windy at times.

Above normal temperatures

Highs:  around 75-80 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 73 degrees.
Wind: Southwest at 10-15 mph - gusty at times 
Precipitation probability - 40%  |  Rainfall totals:  0.25"-0.50" with locally heavier amounts in thunderstorms 

Confidence in this forecast is medium
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Thunderstorms are possible right on into the middle of next week.  Some of these storms will produce heavy rain, lightning, very large hail, and high winds.  Tornado threat is low but not zero.

Best chance for severe weather will be the northern half of the region.  Less chances the further south you go in the area. 

Some of the hail could be VERY large today.  Mainly northern counties - monitor updates.

 
BOTTOM LINE - don't cancel any plans over the coming days - simply be weather aware and check the latest forecast and radars if you have outdoor plans!
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Monitor radars if you have outdoor events.  Thunderstorms will be possible.  Mainly NORTHERN counties.

BOTTOM LINE - don't cancel any plans over the coming days - simply be weather aware and check the latest forecast and radars if you have outdoor plans! 

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The wild card in this forecast will be the timing of each precipitation event over the next few days.  A frontal system will be close to our region and it will trigger occasional showers and thunderstorms.  Some of the storms will be on the heavy side.  Severe weather is also possible.

It will be difficult to pin-point what areas will pick up the heaviest rain - some areas will likely remain dry while neighboring areas pick up more than 1/2" of rain.  Mainly northern and northwest counties - much of the region will remain dry.

It appears the best chance for the most widespread/heavy rain will be the northern half of our region.

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No major changes in this update!

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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here

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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado.  More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.

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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here 
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Saturday night:  A few storms could produce severe weather.  Best chance will be the northern part of the region.
Saturday night:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Sunday:  A few storms could produce severe weather.  Again northern and northwest counties will be the main concern.
Sunday:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  Yes

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Sunday night :   Widespread severe weather is not anticipated.  Monitor for updates.
Sunday night:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes

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Monday: A few storms could produce severe weather.
Monday:  Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?  
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Tonight - Possible

Sunday - Low chance - monitor - more likely north and northwest counties

Monday - Low chance - monitor

Tuesday - Low chance - monitor
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here  Alternative link - click here
 

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To view all watches and warnings in IL -  Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here

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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning  map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site.  For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.

 

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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
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HEADLINES:   It is starting to feel like a broken record!  A frontal system will remain draped in and near our region over the coming days.  This means additional shower and thunderstorm chances.

There will be quite a bit of instability.  This means that a few storms could become severe and produce hail, high winds, and heavy rain.  Lightning is always a concern.  An isolated tornado can not be ruled out - however, the tornado threat appears fairly low.  Monitor for updates.

It appears the greatest chance for severe weather today - Saturday afternoon/evening will be over our northern counties - most likely from Bloomfield, MO to Madisonville, KY and then north of that line.

Severe storms could occur elsewhere - but it is not likely - appears that is the greatest risk zone.  Almost every model I have looked at shows the most widespread activity north of that line.

Here is the official severe weather outlook for Saturday afternoon and evening.  The orange area represents the slight risk zone - slight risk means a few severe thunderstorms are likely to occur but they should not be widespread in nature.  The yellow area is the general thunderstorm risk zone (general thunderstorms mean they should remain below severe levels - although an isolated severe storm can occur in the yellow area, as well)

Best advice is simply to monitor radars from time to time.

Here are the temperature forecast maps for tonight and Sunday

We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more!  Click here 

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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.

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Want to learn more about how to use our radars?  I made a how to video with more information

Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours.  This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected.  Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.

Notice that some areas WILL remain dry

 

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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time.  Those maps can be viewed here.  
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.


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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in 
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Date Range: April 17th-30th
Event: Unsettled weather - several cold frontal passages  Possible cool/cold air shots, as well.
Severe Risk:  Small chances 
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast.  Medium  

Date Range: May 5th-11h
Event: Unsettled weather
Severe Risk:  Possible
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast.  Low  
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Date Range:  May 29th-June 3rd
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk:  Yes - possible event. 
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast.  Low 

Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates.
Confidence in my forecast.  Low  More information on the long range cycle 
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention).  I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible.  Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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1.  The extended forecast looks unsettled with a similar pattern continuing right on into next week - several on/off rain chances - thunderstorm chances.  Hopefully we all start picking up some much needed rain.

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Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here

Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio.  Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event.  I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!

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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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