Sunday night into Monday update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Sunday night: Windy - partly cloudy with an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms - a few storms could produce isolated severe weather.
To monitor weather radar - click here
To monitor the latest watches and warnings - click here
To monitor my Weather Facebook page - click here
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.To monitor weather radar - click here
To monitor the latest watches and warnings - click here
To monitor my Weather Facebook page - click here
Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest winds at 15-30 mph with higher gusts near thunderstorms.
Precipitation probability - 90% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.50" with locally heavier amounts in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Monday: Early morning thunderstorms coming to an end (should end before sunrise over most of our region). Then a mix of sun and clouds.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 70-75 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: West winds at 10-20 mph and gusty at times
Precipitation probability - likely before sunrise | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.50" before 7 am - locally heavier amounts.
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Monday night: Partly cloudy skies. Cooler.
Near normal temperatures
Near normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 40s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.
Wind: Northwest at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Northwest at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Tuesday: Mostly sunny and pleasant weather conditions.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 73 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.Wind: Calm winds - less than 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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In addition to the risk of thunderstorms - winds will be gusting from 20-40 mph this afternoon and evening across our region - this is because of the tight gradient of low pressure to our northwest.
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Possibly - monitor for watches and warnings. Remember that a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch means conditions are favorable for severe storms. A warning means to take action now.
To monitor weather radar - click here
To monitor the latest watches and warnings - click here
To monitor my Weather Facebook page - click here.
No significant wild cards in this forecast!
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Updated winds and temperatures.
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here. I also strongly encourage you to FRIEND some of the local media meteorologists - I follow all of them and so should you.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Sunday night: Isolated severe storms will be possible. Yes.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Sunday night: Isolated severe storms will be possible. Yes.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Monday: Severe storms will be possible before sunrise.
Monday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes before sunrise. Storms will end from west to east during the overnight hours on Sunday and early Monday morning.
.Monday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes before sunrise. Storms will end from west to east during the overnight hours on Sunday and early Monday morning.
Monday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - Likely - yes for some of our counties.
Monday - Possible during the early morning hours from a line of storms moving through the region on Sunday night and Monday morning. Storms should end before sunrise - the threat for severe storms will end once the line pushes through your local county.
Tuesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - Likely - yes for some of our counties.
Monday - Possible during the early morning hours from a line of storms moving through the region on Sunday night and Monday morning. Storms should end before sunrise - the threat for severe storms will end once the line pushes through your local county.
Tuesday - No
Wednesday - No
Thursday - No
Friday - Monitoring
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
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HEADLINES: The main concern for this update will be a line of showers and thunderstorms that is pushing into our region from Missouri and Arkansas. This line of storms is already producing a few reports of severe weather (as of 1 pm on Sunday).
The line of showers and thunderstorms will push east during the overnight hours. It will first approach southeast Missouri and northeast Arkansas by early this evening. It will move east/northeast during the overnight hours.
The main concern with this line of thunderstorms will be isolated damaging winds, large hail, locally heavy rain, lightning, and isolated tornadoes.
The most likely zone for severe storms will be from Mt Vernon, Illinois to Cape Girardeau, Missouri into the Missouri Bootheel. The risk will continue east of the Mississippi River but perhaps not as great as areas west of the river.
Bottom line - monitor for possible severe thunderstorm and/or tornado watches later this evening and then the potential for a few severe thunderstorm or tornado warnings. Remember a WARNING means to take action now.
Listen to local media and NOAA Weather Radio for updates. I will also try to do a Facebook thread later this evening as storms approach our region.
Rainfall amounts will be in the 0.25"-0.50" range with locally heavier amounts likely where the heaviest thunderstorms form.
Your storm tracking tools:
To monitor weather radar - click here
To monitor the latest watches and warnings - click here
To monitor my Weather Facebook page - click here
The latest information from the Storm Prediction Center (they typically update their day 1 severe weather outlooks during the early afternoon and again early evening hours) - click here
The maps below represent the official Storm Prediction Center's forecast - don't get too hung up on the EXACT placement of the outlines. Remember that severe storms can occur in and close to the risk zone. These maps show you the area of greatest concern.
The yellow area is the general thunderstorm threat (isolated severe risk). The orange area is the SLIGHT risk zone - remember that slight risk means that severe storms are likely to occur but should be scattered in nature (the severe weather reports should be scattered).
Remember that it only takes one or two tornadoes to cause problems.
Here is the risk zone outline
Here is where the tornado threat has been placed.
HEADLINES: The main concern for this update will be a line of showers and thunderstorms that is pushing into our region from Missouri and Arkansas. This line of storms is already producing a few reports of severe weather (as of 1 pm on Sunday).
The line of showers and thunderstorms will push east during the overnight hours. It will first approach southeast Missouri and northeast Arkansas by early this evening. It will move east/northeast during the overnight hours.
The main concern with this line of thunderstorms will be isolated damaging winds, large hail, locally heavy rain, lightning, and isolated tornadoes.
The most likely zone for severe storms will be from Mt Vernon, Illinois to Cape Girardeau, Missouri into the Missouri Bootheel. The risk will continue east of the Mississippi River but perhaps not as great as areas west of the river.
Bottom line - monitor for possible severe thunderstorm and/or tornado watches later this evening and then the potential for a few severe thunderstorm or tornado warnings. Remember a WARNING means to take action now.
Listen to local media and NOAA Weather Radio for updates. I will also try to do a Facebook thread later this evening as storms approach our region.
Rainfall amounts will be in the 0.25"-0.50" range with locally heavier amounts likely where the heaviest thunderstorms form.
Your storm tracking tools:
To monitor weather radar - click here
To monitor the latest watches and warnings - click here
To monitor my Weather Facebook page - click here
The latest information from the Storm Prediction Center (they typically update their day 1 severe weather outlooks during the early afternoon and again early evening hours) - click here
The maps below represent the official Storm Prediction Center's forecast - don't get too hung up on the EXACT placement of the outlines. Remember that severe storms can occur in and close to the risk zone. These maps show you the area of greatest concern.
The yellow area is the general thunderstorm threat (isolated severe risk). The orange area is the SLIGHT risk zone - remember that slight risk means that severe storms are likely to occur but should be scattered in nature (the severe weather reports should be scattered).
Remember that it only takes one or two tornadoes to cause problems.
Here is the risk zone outline
So - from these maps you get the general idea that the greatest risk for severe thunderstorms will be over the western half of the region. The risk will diminish the further east you travel in the region. Again - keep in mind that a few severe storms could linger well into the night before they diminish.
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Date Range: April 13th-16th
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates. Possible cold air shots after storm passes.
Confidence in my forecast. Very High
Date Range: April 19th-30th
Event: Unsettled weather - several cold frontal passages Possible cold air shots, as well.
Severe Risk: Yes - possible
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
Date Range: May 5th-11h
Event: Unsettled weather
Severe Risk: Possible
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: May 29th-June 3rd
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
More information on the long range cycle .
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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1. All of today's focus is on the severe weather threat for tonight. The chance of storms will arrive around next Friday/Saturday.
Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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