February 12, 2013: Precipitation chances increase tonight/Wednesday


February 12, 2013

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Good Tuesday morning everyone!  I have made a few changes to the blog.  I am going to try place the weather tracking tools at the bottom three quarters of the page.  The top quarter of the page will be my current thoughts and comments concerning what I am seeing on the models and the latest data.

I hope everyone is having a nice week.  I have been tracking a potential winter storm for over a week now and my forecast has been for it to arrive tonight and on Wednesday.   The question has been whether or not it might produce some snow in our local counties.

Temperatures have been tricky to forecast for this event - the exact track of the area of low pressure has been all but certain - the models have been useless.

Typically this time of the year we would look for an area of low pressure to track to our south in order to produce snow in our area.  A typical weather pattern in February would provide enough cold air for an all snow event.  Of course this hasn't been a typical winter.  It has been warmer than normal since December.

The precipitation from this system is already spreading across parts of Texas and Oklahoma - winter storm watches and warnings cover a decent chunk of real estate to our southwest.  The system has colder air to work with in those areas - thus mostly snow in areas to our southwest.

For our region that will not be the case.  We will see rain spread into our region later tonight (Tuesday night).  The rain will then mix with and change to snow over parts of our area on Wednesday.  Ground temperatures, road temperatures, and air temperatures will not be overly favorable for the wet snow to stick.  However, there may be a band of heavier precipitation across parts of our region that may produce a quick dusting to an inch or two of snow.  This is not going to be a "hazardous road condition" type event.

If you end up with some snow and you like snow then I would say ENJOY!  Not all of us are going to see accumulating snow from this event.  It appears that the best chance for a quick burst of snow may be over southern MO into far southern IL and parts of Kentucky.

Precipitation will come to an end by Wednesday late morning and afternoon.  Total precipitation should be in the 0.10"-0.30" range (melted).

Much colder air will arrive by this weekend.  It will feel like winter - once again.

There is a high likelihood that showers and thunderstorms will spread back into our region by Sunday night/Monday.  A few heavy thunderstorms can't be ruled out.  Severe weather may not be too much of a concern because the higher dew points will remain to our south.  I will monitor and update as we move forward.

A very active pattern will develop over the coming 2-4 weeks.  Multiple storm systems are possible in a fast jet stream pattern.   Monitor updates as we move forward.  The pattern is loaded for some big events in the United States.  Storm tracks will have to be determined as we deal with each system.

   
Spot NWS forecast for your location (keep in mind that these forecasts on the point and click page are the NWS forecast thoughts - my thoughts are below and/or on my weather Facebook page) -- Click here - then enter your zip code for the most up to date spot forecast from the National Weather Service.




A chance for rain changing to a rain/snow mix later tonight into Wednesday.  Right now there appears to be a chance for some accumulation on grassy surfaces.  Temperatures are not going to be optimal for this snow event.  Road temperatures should be warm enough to avoid travel problems - in areas where snow actually does form.


 


Pattern should be interesting for the U.S. over the coming weeks.  Lot of jet stream energy.

For more frequent updates visit my weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.





A slushy snow may fall over some of our counties late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.  Right now accumulations are forecast to be from a dusting to a few inches.  Roads should be warm enough to avoid travel problems.  Many areas will not see snow accumulation - there should be a band of some light accumulation across parts of our area.  There is some uncertainty on where that band would be placed.  The thinking is over parts of southern Missouri - northern Arkansas - far southern Illinois - Kentucky.

Again, I don't believe there are any travel concerns.  Bottom line - some slushy accumulation of snow is possible on grassy surfaces late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.


Unlikely there will be any travel problems from snow that may form later tonight/Wednesday.



Whether the rain can change to snow over some of our counties on Wednesday. .
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado.
  
TuesdaySevere weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits?  No

Tonight:  Severe weather is not anticipated. Some wet snow possible.
Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits? No

Tomorrow:  Severe weather is not anticipated. Some wet snow possible.
Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits?  No.

For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here  

To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here


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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?

Tuesday - No
Wednesday - No
Thursday - No
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No 

To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here  Alternative link - click here 






We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site !
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  I have added all of eastern Kentucky, as well.

We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS ---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars?  Here is a video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU


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To view all watches and warnings in IL -  Click Here 
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here 
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national        map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning  map - click here.

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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here

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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site.  For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.

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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall in our region.  This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected.  Remember the scale is at the top of the map.

Click the link below - then choose your the time period you are interested in! 

 CLICK HERE FOR THE RAINFALL GRAPHIC - then choose the time frame above the image


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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time.  Those maps can be viewed here.  

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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here 
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in 
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here 
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Keep in mind that these forecasts on the point and click page are the NWS forecast thoughts - my thoughts are below and/or on my weather Facebook page.

 Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here

We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more!  Click here 

Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms.   Click here to join---


If you are a weather enthusiast then I recommend listening to WeatherBrains each week!  For a more in-depth look at what is happening in meteorology.



Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio.  Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event.  I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here 
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here 
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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