July 9th-13th: Not as hot - some rain chances

Updated on July 10th at 11 pm

July 9th-13th 2012
Monday through Friday update


I am in summer mode - that means I try to update every other day or every 2-3 days.  If the weather is active then I will come in and update the forecast as needed.  I will also note an update at the very top of the blog update.

For more frequent updates check visit my weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.

 
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...


Monday:  Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms - especially the southern half of the region.
Near normal temperatures
Highs: in the upper 80s  |  Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind:  Northeast 10-15 mph 
Precipitation probability - 30%  | Rainfall totals:  0.25-0.50"  -
thunderstorms can and often do produce heavier amounts.
Confidence in this forecast is very high
 
Monday night:  Partly cloudy - scattered thunderstorms possible - mainly southern half of the region.
Near normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 60s |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind:  Easterly winds at 5-10 mph  
Precipitation probability - 20%  | Rainfall totals: 
0.25-0.50" thunderstorms can and often do produce heavier amounts.
Confidence in this forecast is very high 
 

Tuesday:  Partly sunny - a chance for thunderstorms over the southern counties in our region - Missouri Bootheel/Kentucky and Tennessee border counties
Near normal to below temperatures
Highs: in the upper 80s to lower 90s  |  Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind:  Northeast at 5-10 mph 
Precipitation probability - 30%  | Rainfall totals:
0.25-0.50" thunderstorms can and often do produce heavier amounts.
Confidence in this forecast is very high

 
Tuesday night:  Partly cloudy - a small chance for thunderstorms over the far southern counties of the area.
Near normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 60s  |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind:  Northeast winds at 5-10 mph 
Precipitation probability - 20%  | Rainfall totals: 
0.25" thunderstorms can and often do produce heavier amounts.
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wednesday:  Partly sunny skies - warm - a chance for thunderstorms mainly over Kentucky and Tennessee.  Isolated severe storm possible over parts of southeast Missouri.
Near normal temperatures
Highs:  in the 86-93 degree range | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: Northeast winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 30%  |  Rainfall totals:  0.25"
thunderstorms can and often do produce heavier amounts.
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wednesday night: Partly cloudy skies - a chance for thunderstorms mainly over Kentucky and Tennessee..
Near normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 60s  |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind:  Easterly winds of 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 30%  |  Rainfall totals: 0.25"
thunderstorms can and often do produce heavier amounts.
Confidence in this forecast is high 
 
Thursday:  Partly sunny - a few thunderstorms possible
Highs: mostly in the upper 80s to lower 90s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 40%  |  Rainfall totals:  scattered 0.25"  thunderstorms can and often do produce heavier amounts.
Confidence in this forecast is high

Thursday night:  Partly cloudy skies -
a few thunderstorms possible - warm - humid.
Near normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 60s |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind:  Southeast/easterly winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 20%  |  Rainfall totals: scattered 0.25"
thunderstorms can and often do produce heavier amounts.
Confidence in this forecast is high


Friday:  Partly cloudy skies - a chance for a few thunderstorms
Near normal temperatures

Highs: in the upper 80s and lower 90s |  Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind:  Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 30%  |  Rainfall totals:
scattered 0.25" thunderstorms can and often do produce heavier amounts.
Confidence in this forecast is high


Friday night:  Partly cloudy with a chance for a few thunderstorms.
Near normal temperatures

Lows: in the upper 60s |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind:  South winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 30%  |  Rainfall totals: scattered 0.25"
thunderstorms can and often do produce heavier amounts.
Confidence in this forecast is high


 
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Our heat wave is over - for now.  A more typical summer type pattern will occur during the next 5-10 days.  The main concern for the coming 5-8 day period will be lightning and locally heavy rainfall totals.  A small chance for gusty winds.


I am posting information about the drought on the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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Most likely no.  If a thunderstorm forms then there will of course be a chance for brief heavy rain and lightning.  A gust of wind is also possible.


No wild card in this update
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Tweaked rainfall chances

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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather

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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado.  More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here



Monday:  Widespread severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Monday: 
Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms
Yes


Monday night:  Widespread severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Monday night: 
Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  Yes a few storms scattered around the area



Tuesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Tuesday:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  Yes a few storms scattered around the area - mainly near the KY/TN border and into AR/TN.
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Tuesday night :
 
Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Tuesday night:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? 
Perhaps a few over southern counties along the KY/TN border or down into AR/TN.
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Wednesday:  Isolated severe storm over southeast Missouri.  No snow or ice.
Wednesday: 
Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms
Yes
 

Wednesday night :  Isolated severe storm possible over southeast Missouri.  No snow or ice.
Wednesday night:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
   

Thursday:  Widespread severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice. 
Thursday:  Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstormsYes a few storms scattered around the area
 

Thursday night:  Widespread evere weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Thursday night: 
Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes a few storms possible.



Friday:  Isolated hail and high winds. 
Friday:  Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstormsYes 

For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here  


To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
 


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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?



Monday - No
Tuesday - No
Wednesday - No
Thursday - No
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No

To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here  Alternative link - click here
 
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To view all watches and warnings in IL -  Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here

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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning  map - click here.

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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here


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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site.  For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.

 
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
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HEADLINES:  You made it through the heat wave!  We have been through the ringer with day in and day out of 100-110 degree weather for the past week.  That has all come to an end.  A cold front pushing through the region today (Monday) will bring more seasonable temperatures into the coming weekend.


Temperatures over the coming week will range from the middle 80s to lower 90s - overnight lows will mainly be in the 60s.  Not cool temperatures - by any means - but better than what we have been experiencing.

Normal highs for this time of the year are near 90 and normal lows are near 70.  I don't think too many people will be complaining about temperatures this week.

With the slightly cooler temperatures will come a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight (Monday night) into Tuesday.  Another chance from Thursday into Sunday.  Right now the threat for severe storms appears to be low.  Can't rule out a couple of severe storms this evening (Monday evening) and then again Friday into Sunday.  I will monitor and update if anything changes.

Let's take a look at the rainfall totals for the past 7 days - you can see spotty heavy totals over the region.  Click image for a larger size



There is a bit of uncertainty on the exact placement of the frontal position as we push into Wednesday/Thursday/Friday.  Some of the data keeps quite a bit of rain knocking on our doorway on Wednesday and Thursday - the best chances for precipitation will be over the southern half of the region - Missouri Bootheel - KY/TN state line border counties.  How much further north the precip can make it is still a bit of a question.  Let's hope further north.

For now - enjoy the "normal" summer pattern. 

Some brand new maps have been released - reviewing June 2012

Here they are 

This map shows you the rank of June 2012 for the temperatures - you can see that it was very warm.  We ranked 105 out of 118.  118 would be the warmest year on record.  The higher the number the warmer the year/rank.


You can see the rank of June 2012 in the precipitation department.  It was very dry - out of 118 years June of 2012 will rank number 10 on the scale.  Number 1 would be the driest on record.


Let's break that down to the state level (then the regional level below that)




You can see the regional rankings below - our region ranked 4 - close to be the top driest year on record.  
 








The above graph shows you what percentage of the nation was very cold or very warm.  Obviously the warmth won out over the cold.

The image below shows you what percentage of the nation was very wet/very dry.  The dry wins by a long shot.




We can also take a look at how this year compares to other years - this graphic below shows you just how warm this year has been - quite amazing.

According to Dr. Jeff Masters - in a recent blog update

Thanks in part to the historic heat wave that demolished thousands of high temperature records at the end of June, temperatures in the contiguous U.S. were the warmest on record over the past twelve months and for the year-to-date period of January - June, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Monday. June 2012 was the 14th warmest June on record, so was not as extreme overall as March 2012 (first warmest March on record), April (third warmest April), or May (second warmest May.) However, temperatures were warm enough in June to set a new U.S. record for hottest 12-month period for the third straight month, narrowly eclipsing the record set just the previous month. The past thirteen months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer (in 2011), 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring on record. Twenty-six states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional sixteen states were top-ten warm. The year-to-date period of January - June was the warmest on record by an unusually large margin--1.2°F.

U.S. heat over the past 13 months: a one in 1.6 million event
Each of the 13 months from June 2011 through June 2012 ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time in the 1895 - present record. According to NCDC, the odds of this occurring randomly during any particular month are 1 in 1,594,323. Thus, we should only see one more 13-month period so warm between now and 124,652 AD--assuming the climate is staying the same as it did during the past 118 years. These are ridiculously long odds, and it is highly unlikely that the extremity of the heat during the past 13 months could have occurred without a warming climate. Some critics have claimed that recent record warm temperatures measured in the U.S. are due to poor siting of a number of measurement stations. Even if true (and the best science we have says that these stations were actually reporting temperatures that were too cool), there is no way that measurement errors can account for the huge margin by which U.S. temperature records have been crushed during the past 12-month and 6-month periods.

End of Jeff's comments (above 2 paragraphs)

Now let's review June as far as precipitation for each week of the month - not a lot of precipitation to go around.  Thus - the large extent of drought conditions in the country.

The date for each week is at the top of the map.

  


This has been the warmest 12 month period on record for the United States - see the image below (click it for the large view size)


Let's compare some "well known" drought years to 2012 - you can see the dates at the top of each image.  1934, 1936, 1988 - versus the long temp average for precipitation anomalies.  The orange/red areas are dry or below normal precipitation.  The second image is 2012 (through May).



June 2012 broke quite a few all time record high temperature records - you can view them here




Even though it has been hot in America - not all of the world is baking.  Much of the world is averaging below normal in the temperature department (so far this year).  Click image for a larger view



We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more!  Click here 
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.


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Want to learn more about how to use our radars?  I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 120 hours (5 days).  This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected.  Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.


The first image is through Wednesday night - the second image takes us into Saturday - you can get a feel for where precipitation should be located (chances increase again towards the end of the week into the weekend)




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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time.  Those maps can be viewed here.  
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.


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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here

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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in 
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here

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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention).  I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible.  Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here







July 8th-14th
 The week of the 8-14th may bring more seasonable temperatures compared to what we have been experiencing.  I am still expecting a NW flow type atmosphere - that may bring a brief halt to our upper 90s and lower 100s. 


July 16th-23rd
A return to hotter conditions?  Possible.

This model graphic below shows the week of the 17th being warm again - still some time for changes.  But - perhaps we will see a return to the 90s.

Click image for the full size view


 
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DROUGHT INFORMATION - CLICK HERE 


Here are the latest 6-10 day temperature and precipitation outlooks 



Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here


If you are a weather enthusiast then I recommend listening to WeatherBrains each week!  For a more in-depth look at what is happening in meteorology.



Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio.  Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event.  I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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