UPDATED ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NEW GRAPHICS AND COMMENTS
July 28th-August 2nd - 2012
Saturday through Thursday updateJuly 28th-August 2nd - 2012
I am out of town - but will update the blog when I see the forecast needs to be tweaked. Also check the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page
I also add new graphics and tweak the forecast during the day and evening hours - so check back for updates.
For more frequent updates check visit my weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky..
Saturday: Hot - partly sunny skies.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the middle 90s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: North winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0.00"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Saturday night: Mostly clear and warm
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: Northeast winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Sunday: Warm with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the 94-96 range | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" but locally higher in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is high
Sunday night: A few clouds - warm - muggy - a chance for thunderstorms especially after midnight.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals: scattered 0.25" thunderstorms can and often do produce heavier amounts.
Confidence in this forecast is high
Monday: Warm and humid - a chance for thunderstorm - mainly in the morning. Scattered chance in the afternoon hours. A few severe storms possible over the Missouri Bootheel
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the middle 90s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: South winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% during the morning and 30% during the afternoon | Rainfall totals: 0.25" - but locally heavier in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is high
Monday night: Partly cloudy - muggy - a few thunderstorms possible. A few storms could be severe over the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee.
Lows: in the middle to upper 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.50" - but locally heavier in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is high
Tuesday: Very hot and humid - a few scattered thunderstorms possible - isolated severe storms possible over parts of Indiana and northwest Kentucky
Above normal temperatures
Highs: mostly in the middle to upper 90s - if sunshine dominates then some areas could see 100-104 | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" - but locally heavier in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is medium
Tuesday night: A few clouds - warm and muggy - a chance for a thunderstorm
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: North winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" but locally heavier in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is medium
Wednesday: Hot and humid - a few scattered thunderstorms possible
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the middle to upper 90s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: North winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" - but locally heavier in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is medium
Wednesday night: A few clouds - warm and muggy - a chance for a thunderstorm
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: North winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals:0.25" - but locally heavier in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is medium
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
Saturday: Hot - partly sunny skies.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the middle 90s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: North winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0.00"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Saturday night: Mostly clear and warm
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: Northeast winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Sunday: Warm with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the 94-96 range | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" but locally higher in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is high
Sunday night: A few clouds - warm - muggy - a chance for thunderstorms especially after midnight.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals: scattered 0.25" thunderstorms can and often do produce heavier amounts.
Confidence in this forecast is high
Monday: Warm and humid - a chance for thunderstorm - mainly in the morning. Scattered chance in the afternoon hours. A few severe storms possible over the Missouri Bootheel
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the middle 90s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: South winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% during the morning and 30% during the afternoon | Rainfall totals: 0.25" - but locally heavier in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is high
Monday night: Partly cloudy - muggy - a few thunderstorms possible. A few storms could be severe over the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee.
Lows: in the middle to upper 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.50" - but locally heavier in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is high
Tuesday: Very hot and humid - a few scattered thunderstorms possible - isolated severe storms possible over parts of Indiana and northwest Kentucky
Above normal temperatures
Highs: mostly in the middle to upper 90s - if sunshine dominates then some areas could see 100-104 | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" - but locally heavier in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is medium
Tuesday night: A few clouds - warm and muggy - a chance for a thunderstorm
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: North winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" but locally heavier in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is medium
Wednesday: Hot and humid - a few scattered thunderstorms possible
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the middle to upper 90s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: North winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" - but locally heavier in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is medium
Wednesday night: A few clouds - warm and muggy - a chance for a thunderstorm
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: North winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals:0.25" - but locally heavier in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is medium
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
A few thunderstorms possible - mainly Sunday night into Tuesday - focus might be on Monday afternoon into Monday night. These northwest flow events can be tricky to time. Northwest flow means the jet stream will be coming in from the northwest - this type of flow can produce thunderstorm complexes that move southeast into our region.
I am posting information about the drought on the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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Warm temperatures will continue this weekend with highs in the 90s.
Small chance for a thunderstorm Sunday afternoon - a better chance arrives on Sunday night into Monday night - a few heavy storms are possible. Monitor radars if you have concerns.
No wild card in this update
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Increased rain chances for Sunday night
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here. I also strongly encourage you to FRIEND some of the local media meteorologists - I follow all of them and so should you.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Unlikely
Saturday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Unlikely
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Sunday night: Isolated severe storm possible. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Monday: A few severe storms will be possible. No snow or ice.
Monday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Monday night: Widespread severe weather is not anticipated - a few storms in the Missouri Bootheel and western Tennessee could be severe. No snow or ice.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Tuesday: Isolated severe storms possible. No snow or ice..
Tuesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Isolated
Tuesday night: Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Isolated
Wednesday: Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice..
Wednesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Scattered
Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Scattered
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Unlikely
Saturday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Unlikely
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Sunday night: Isolated severe storm possible. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Monday: A few severe storms will be possible. No snow or ice.
Monday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Monday night: Widespread severe weather is not anticipated - a few storms in the Missouri Bootheel and western Tennessee could be severe. No snow or ice.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Tuesday: Isolated severe storms possible. No snow or ice..
Tuesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Isolated
Tuesday night: Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Isolated
Wednesday: Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice..
Wednesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Scattered
Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Scattered
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
or
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
Saturday - No
Saturday night - No
Sunday - No
Sunday night - Unlikely
Monday -Unlikely
Monday night - Unlikely
Tuesday - Possible over parts of Indiana and northwest Kentucky
Tuesday night - No
Wednesday - No
Wednesday night - No
Thursday - Unlikely
Thursday night - Unlikely
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
Saturday - No
Saturday night - No
Sunday - No
Sunday night - Unlikely
Monday -Unlikely
Monday night - Unlikely
Tuesday - Possible over parts of Indiana and northwest Kentucky
Tuesday night - No
Wednesday - No
Wednesday night - No
Thursday - Unlikely
Thursday night - Unlikely
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The
links above are interactive and
you can move
around the United States by
simply clicking on the
national map - or
from the pull down menu
where it says regions and
US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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This
forecast
analysis covers far southern
Illinois, southeast
Missouri,
southwest Indiana,
western Kentucky, and
northwest
Tennessee
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HEADLINES:
UPDATED SUNDAY NIGHT: A chance for some showers and storms on the leading edge of the low level jet stream tonight - if storms develop then they would form over Missouri and Illinois and move east/southeast. Some questions remain as to whether a complex will form.
Monday should bring a few morning storms and then partly cloudy with a chance for a few afternoon thunderstorms. The risk for severe weather appears low. Anytime you have storms this time of the year you can have an isolated severe wind gust or two.
The week ahead - the core of the heat will remain, thankfully, to our west where 100-110 degree readings are likely. For our region we will be mostly in the 90s - heat index values will continue to be fairly high (especially in areas that pick up a little bit of rain). However, with the northwest flow aloft we will see some on and off chances for thunderstorms.
Bottom line is that we are now more in a northwest flow and the core of the heat ridge is off to our west. We will remain hot and humid - but perhaps the 100s will stay further west. Either way - it is still hot and everyone should continue to use common sense heat safety rules.
Drought conditions will continue over much of the area - although we have a better chance of scattered rain and storms than recent weeks (thanks to the northwest flow).
Previous update from Friday: No big update today - I am out of town. I did update the graphics - appears we will have a decent shot at storms on Sunday into Monday - I will need to fine tune the exact timing. I will update the blog as needed - mainly the forecast (above) portion.
The drought continues to expand
Temperatures will be warm this week - the 100s should stay to our west. We will be mostly in the 90s. On and off thunderstorm chances as we are mostly in a northwest wind flow.
You can view the high and low temperatures forecasts - zoom in on regions and more by clicking here
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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HEADLINES:
UPDATED SUNDAY NIGHT: A chance for some showers and storms on the leading edge of the low level jet stream tonight - if storms develop then they would form over Missouri and Illinois and move east/southeast. Some questions remain as to whether a complex will form.
Monday should bring a few morning storms and then partly cloudy with a chance for a few afternoon thunderstorms. The risk for severe weather appears low. Anytime you have storms this time of the year you can have an isolated severe wind gust or two.
The week ahead - the core of the heat will remain, thankfully, to our west where 100-110 degree readings are likely. For our region we will be mostly in the 90s - heat index values will continue to be fairly high (especially in areas that pick up a little bit of rain). However, with the northwest flow aloft we will see some on and off chances for thunderstorms.
Bottom line is that we are now more in a northwest flow and the core of the heat ridge is off to our west. We will remain hot and humid - but perhaps the 100s will stay further west. Either way - it is still hot and everyone should continue to use common sense heat safety rules.
Drought conditions will continue over much of the area - although we have a better chance of scattered rain and storms than recent weeks (thanks to the northwest flow).
Previous update from Friday: No big update today - I am out of town. I did update the graphics - appears we will have a decent shot at storms on Sunday into Monday - I will need to fine tune the exact timing. I will update the blog as needed - mainly the forecast (above) portion.
The drought continues to expand
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's
check
out the how much rain is
forecast to fall
over the next 120
hours. This map gives
you a general
broad brushed idea of
what can be
expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
Remember that thunderstorms can produce locally heavy rainfall totals that will exceed the totals shown on this map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
Remember that thunderstorms can produce locally heavy rainfall totals that will exceed the totals shown on this map.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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1. A bit more active next week as we will be in a northwest flow pattern. This means a chance for thunderstorms from time to time. Monitor the blog for updates as each event becomes a bit more clear. Timing of northwest flow events can be difficult.
DROUGHT INFORMATION - CLICK HERE
Here are the latest 6-10 day temperature and 8-14 day temperature outlooks - see the date stamps at the top of each image
Here is the latest July through September temperature outlook
Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here
If you are a weather enthusiast then I recommend listening to WeatherBrains each week! For a more in-depth look at what is happening in meteorology.
Here are the latest 6-10 day temperature and 8-14 day temperature outlooks - see the date stamps at the top of each image
Here is the latest July through September temperature outlook
Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here
If you are a weather enthusiast then I recommend listening to WeatherBrains each week! For a more in-depth look at what is happening in meteorology.
Now is a GREAT
time to buy a NOAA All Hazards
Weather Radio. Better to have one
before storms
strike than to be without one
during an event. I recommend the
Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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