Tuesday night and Wednesday update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Tuesday night: Partly cloudy with mild temperatures. Windy at times. A few storms possible in the Missouri Bootheel or in south central Missouri
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 37 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds - very warm - a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms over southeast Missouri.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 80-85 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southeast winds at 10-15 mph with gusts above 20 mph
Precipitation probability - better chance western counties - Missouri counties | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.50" in areas that see rain - locally heavier (again this is mostly Missouri counties)
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wednesday night: Partly cloudy skies. A chance for showers and thunderstorms - better chance over western counties and then spreading eastward overnight.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 37 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals: 0.40"-0.80" but heavier totals over southeast Missouri and western parts of southern Illinois
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Southerly winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals: 0.40"-0.80" but heavier totals over southeast Missouri and western parts of southern Illinois
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Thursday: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely..
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 65-70 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.Wind: Southwest at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 80% | Rainfall totals: 0.40"-0.80" with locally heavier amounts
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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No major concerns for our immediate area - it will be windy this evening. Thunderstorms are more likely towards Arkansas and south central Missouri. The rest of our area should remain rain free tonight.
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No major concerns.
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No significant wild cards in this forecast!
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No major changes in this update!
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated in our local region - some down in Arkansas. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated in our local region - some down in Arkansas. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes over parts of southeast Missouri
.Wednesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes over parts of southeast Missouri
Wednesday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes rumbles of thunder likely
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - Very low chance in the Missouri Bootheel and towards south central Missouri
Wednesday - No
Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes rumbles of thunder likely
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - Very low chance in the Missouri Bootheel and towards south central Missouri
Wednesday - No
Thursday - No
Friday - Low chance - mainly hail threat
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
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HEADLINES: Wow - the warm weather just keeps on rolling. I know everyone is loving this - for March these temperatures are WELL above normal. Historic warmth over a large area of Canada and the United States. Sounds like a broken record? I have been talking about this for days on end - it appears that above normal temperatures will continue right on through the end of March.
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The big flooding system to our west will slowly move east over the coming days. Thankfully we are not forecasting flash flooding from this system for our region. There could be some issues over portions of southeast Missouri that experienced heavy rains last week. But - for the rest of us - it appears like this system will produce rain on Wednesday night into at least Friday afternoon - possibly into Saturday.
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Here are estimated rainfall totals from eastern Oklahoma from this event - you see that there has been a lot of rain - flash flooding is occurring in areas that have experienced the heaviest rainfall. Again - thankfully we are not expecting anything like that in our region. Thank you Jeff Master's for posting this image.
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Now back to our region...
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Rainfall totals (when all is said and done) should be in the 1-2" range. Can't rule out locally heavier amounts - especially over parts of southeast Missouri and northeast Arkansas.
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Widespread severe weather is not in the forecast - it appears that instability levels will be kept at a minimum. I will monitor in case there are any changes. Right now I am not overly concerned about severe storms.
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The Paducah, KY National Weather Service has mentioned the potential of hail with the upper level system on Friday into Friday night - this could be a possibility in isolated areas. We will monitor trends over the next day or two and update accordingly. The risk appears small - and they have said the same.
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Let's take a look at some maps!
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Just how many degrees ABOVE normal will it be over the next few days - starting with Tuesday and then going into Monday - each map has the date at the top of the image. This is really amazing - to see such a HUGE area with above normal temperatures. Historic event!
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Keep in mind that NORMAL highs for this time of the year are around 56-60 degrees.
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Now let's take a look at ACTUAL high temperature forecasts for the next few days - you can see that it will be warm. The cloud cover and rain towards the end of the week will drop our temperatures some.
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Take a look at the record high temperatures for the past week - the red dots are record highs and the orange dots are record high minimum temperatures.
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Let's take a look at the NAM model maps for our rain system on Wednesday into Thursday - you can see the purple and pink areas on this map - that represents precipitation. You can see it moving in from the west. These maps below are from www.wright-weather.com - my favorite choice for model data!
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This first map is for Wednesday evening - click image for real view size.
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HEADLINES: Wow - the warm weather just keeps on rolling. I know everyone is loving this - for March these temperatures are WELL above normal. Historic warmth over a large area of Canada and the United States. Sounds like a broken record? I have been talking about this for days on end - it appears that above normal temperatures will continue right on through the end of March.
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The big flooding system to our west will slowly move east over the coming days. Thankfully we are not forecasting flash flooding from this system for our region. There could be some issues over portions of southeast Missouri that experienced heavy rains last week. But - for the rest of us - it appears like this system will produce rain on Wednesday night into at least Friday afternoon - possibly into Saturday.
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Here are estimated rainfall totals from eastern Oklahoma from this event - you see that there has been a lot of rain - flash flooding is occurring in areas that have experienced the heaviest rainfall. Again - thankfully we are not expecting anything like that in our region. Thank you Jeff Master's for posting this image.
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Now back to our region...
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Rainfall totals (when all is said and done) should be in the 1-2" range. Can't rule out locally heavier amounts - especially over parts of southeast Missouri and northeast Arkansas.
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Widespread severe weather is not in the forecast - it appears that instability levels will be kept at a minimum. I will monitor in case there are any changes. Right now I am not overly concerned about severe storms.
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The Paducah, KY National Weather Service has mentioned the potential of hail with the upper level system on Friday into Friday night - this could be a possibility in isolated areas. We will monitor trends over the next day or two and update accordingly. The risk appears small - and they have said the same.
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Let's take a look at some maps!
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Just how many degrees ABOVE normal will it be over the next few days - starting with Tuesday and then going into Monday - each map has the date at the top of the image. This is really amazing - to see such a HUGE area with above normal temperatures. Historic event!
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Keep in mind that NORMAL highs for this time of the year are around 56-60 degrees.
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This first map is for Wednesday evening - click image for real view size.
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This next map is for Thursday morning - you can see rain overspreading the region
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And this last map is for Friday morning - you can see rain still in our area.
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Want to see the trough on the 500mb map - what is a trough - this is where the jet stream DIPS southward (over the western U.S.) - then it closes off as it moves eastward. Closes off means it has been disconnected from the main jet stream. Cut off lows tend to meander and move slowly. Again these two maps are from www.wright-weather.com
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The first image is today's 500 mb map - Tuesday afternoon. The second map is Thursday (when it cuts off) - click map for real size view.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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This is the 48 hour precipitation map
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The 5 day precipitation map - this takes us through the end of this event.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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This is the 48 hour precipitation map
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Date Range: March 20th-31st
Event: A couple of systems to monitor.
Severe Risk: Right now severe risk appears small - will monitor.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Warm to very warm conditions will continue.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: April 1st - April 9th
Event: Unsettled pattern.
Severe Risk: Can't rule out some heavier weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Warm conditions will continue with a couple of storm systems to monitor.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: April 13th-17th
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: May 29th-June 3rd
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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1. Who isn't enjoying this weather? I see farmers in the fields working already. I am concerned about a late freeze - in April. This will have to be monitored. I have been telling everyone that it is a concern.
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The long range temperature forecast does indicate above normal temperatures for the foreseeable future - looks like the warm weather will continue - for now!
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Here is the latest six to ten and eight to fourteen day temperature outlooks - dates at the top of the images. Also the April temperature forecast map indicates that the odds FAVOR above normal temperatures.
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Remember this is a probability map - the yellow/orange/red area means above normal temperatures are more likely to occur.
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The long range temperature forecast does indicate above normal temperatures for the foreseeable future - looks like the warm weather will continue - for now!
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Here is the latest six to ten and eight to fourteen day temperature outlooks - dates at the top of the images. Also the April temperature forecast map indicates that the odds FAVOR above normal temperatures.
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Remember this is a probability map - the yellow/orange/red area means above normal temperatures are more likely to occur.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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