March 13th-14th: Bizarre weather to continue for a couple of weeks

March 13th-14th - 2012
Tuesday evening into Wednesday afternoon update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Tuesday night:  Mostly clear and mild.
 Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle to upper 50s  |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 35 degrees.
Wind:  Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.  
Precipitation probability - 0%   | Rainfall totals:  0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wednesday:  A mix of sun and clouds.  A chance for a popup shower or thunderstorm.
Above normal temperatures
Highs:  around 75-80 degrees.  | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 56 degrees.
Wind: Southwest winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 30%  Rainfall totals:   0.25"  locally heavier if a thunderstorm forms
Confidence in this forecast is very high

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Wednesday night:  Partly cloudy skies.  A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 60s |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 35 degrees.
Wind:  Southwest at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 30%  Rainfall totals: 0.25"  locally heavier in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Thursday:  A few clouds - a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms.  
Above normal temperatures
Highs:  around 75-80 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 56 degrees.
Wind: Southwest at 5-15 mph  
Precipitation probability - 40%  Rainfall totals:  0.25" but locally heavier amounts in thunderstorms 
Confidence in this forecast is high 
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms.  Click here to join
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A couple of storms could produce gusty winds and hail on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.


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Monitor for some isolated severe storms.


No significant wild cards in this forecast!
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No significant snow in this short range forecast...
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No major changes in this update!

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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours

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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado.  More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here

For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here 
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Tuesday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: 
Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Wednesday:  A small chance for a severe thunderstorm
Wednesday:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  Yes
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Wednesday night :
  A small chance for a severe thunderstorm.. 
Wednesday night:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  Yes
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Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Thursday: 
Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms?  Yes
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?  
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Tonight - No
Wednesday - A small chance for a weather watch
Thursday - Less than 5% chance
 
Friday - No
Saturday - No 
Sunday - No 
Monday - No
 


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To view all watches and warnings in IL -  Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here


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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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HEADLINE: 
Bizarre weather will continue into the next two weeks.  Temperatures are forecast to be above normal for most of this period.  It will feel more like late April or May - not March.  Surprised?  I guess we shouldn't be - what has been normal over the last few years?  Not much!
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There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms on and off through the period.  Mostly because of the warm and humid conditions - couple with a few weak disturbances moving through the region.
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Where thunderstorms occur they could produce lightning, gusty winds, and even a few reports of hail.  This is almost a summer type pattern.  
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Here are the temperature departures for the coming days - these maps tell you HOW MUCH above normal temperatures will be - enjoy this weather!
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Folks, this is NOT normal to see 20-30 degrees above normal across a huge chunk of the nation.  These are the high temperature departures through next Monday. 
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more!  Click here 
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I have also added a few new interactive city radars - including the Memphis, Tennessee area and the rest of the State of Kentucky.
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours.  This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected.  Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.

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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time.  Those maps can be viewed here.  
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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No significant snow in our forecast...


Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps .  You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here

Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps.  You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation -  click here. 
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.


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Want to learn more about how to use our radars?  I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: March 14th-31st
Event: 3-5 systems to monitor.
Severe Risk:  Can't rule out some heavier weather the last half of the month. 
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Warm to very warm conditions will continue.
Confidence in my forecast:  Medium .  


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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance.  I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible.  The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.

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1.  On and off shower and thunderstorm chances into early next week - I can't find an organized severe weather threat right now.  PLENTY of above normal temperatures.  Absolutely bizarre weather - especially the long duration of the warmth this past winter into the present.
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The latest six to ten and eight to fourteen day outlook
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio.  Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event.  I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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