March 12th-13th: WARM!!!

March 12th-13th - 2012
Monday evening into Tuesday afternoon update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Monday night:  A few clouds and mild.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle to upper 50s  |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 25 degrees.
Wind:  Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.  
Precipitation probability - 0%   | Rainfall totals:  0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Tuesday:  Mostly sunny skies - warm.
Above normal temperatures
Highs:  around 76 degrees.  | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 10-20 mph
Precipitation probability - 0%  Rainfall totals:   0" 
Confidence in this forecast is very high

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Tuesday night:  Partly cloudy skies.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 50s |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 25 degrees.
Wind:  Southwest at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0%  Rainfall totals: 0" 
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Wednesday:  A few clouds - a small chance for a thunderstorm..  
Above normal temperatures
Highs:  around 80 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 10-20 mph  
Precipitation probability - 20%  Rainfall totals:  0.25" 
Confidence in this forecast is high 
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms.  Click here to join
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No major concerns


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No


Wild card in this forecast will be whether or not a few storms form on Wednesday in the afternoon warmth and humidity. 
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No significant snow in this short range forecast...
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No major changes in this update!

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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours

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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado.  More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here

For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here 
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Monday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Monday night: 
Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Tuesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Tuesday:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  No
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Tuesday night :
  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice. 
Tuesday night:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  No
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Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Wednesday: 
Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms?  Yes - a thunderstorm is possible
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?  
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Tonight - No
Tuesday - No
Wednesday - No 
 
Thursday - No
Friday - No 
Saturday - No 

 


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To view all watches and warnings in IL -  Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here


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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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HEADLINE: 
I wasn't going to do an update today - not much going on!  But - I changed my mind.  
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Warm temperatures will continue into next week - it will feel more like May than March.  There will be a few thunderstorms from time to time - the first chance will be Wednesday - stray/isolated in nature.  The next chance will be on Thursday and Friday.  Can't rule out a strong storm - organized severe weather appears unlikely.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more!  Click here 
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I have also added a few new interactive city radars - including the Memphis, Tennessee area and the rest of the State of Kentucky.
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours.  This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected.  Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.

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No rain expected for the next 24 hours.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time.  Those maps can be viewed here.  
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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No significant snow in our forecast...


Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps .  You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here

Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps.  You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation -  click here. 
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.


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Want to learn more about how to use our radars?  I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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 Date Range: March 4th-March 14th
Event: A few shots at precipitation - severe weather risk appears low (not zero but low).
Severe Risk:  low
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - most likely some rain events
Details: A few systems to monitor - right now it appears the severe weather risk is low.
Confidence in my forecast:  Medium .
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Date Range: March 14th-31st
Event: 3-5 systems to monitor.
Severe Risk:  Can't rule out some heavier weather the last half of the month. 
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - most likely some rain events
Details:
Confidence in my forecast:  Medium .
 

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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance.  I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible.  The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.

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1.   Warm weather will continue into next week!  A few chances for showers and thunderstorms. 
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio.  Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event.  I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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