Wednesday through Friday update
I am in summer mode - that means I try to update every other day or every 2-3 days. If the weather is active then I will come in and update the forecast as needed. I will also note an update at the very top of the blog update.
For more frequent updates check visit my weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
Wind: Southerly winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" thunderstorms can and often do produce heavier amounts.
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wind: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: scattered 0.25" thunderstorms can and often do produce heavier amounts.
Confidence in this forecast is medium
Thursday night: Partly cloudy - warm and humid - isolated thunderstorms possible.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: scattered 0.25" thunderstorms can and often do produce heavier amounts.
Confidence in this forecast is high
Friday: Partly cloudy - hot and humid - scattered thunderstorms - a few storms could be on the strong side/small chance for severe storms.Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the lower to middle 90s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: scattered 0.25" thunderstorms can and often do produce heavier amounts.
Confidence in this forecast is high
Friday night: Partly cloudy - warm and humid - isolated thunderstorm - mainly early
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: South winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: scattered 0.25" thunderstorms can and often do produce heavier amounts.
Confidence in this forecast is medium
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Wednesday: Partly cloudy - hot and humid - isolated thunderstorms
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the 94-98 degree range with pockets of higher temperatures | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southerly winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" thunderstorms can and often do produce heavier amounts.
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wednesday night: Partly cloudy - warm and humid - scattered thunderstorms possible
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds of 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" thunderstorms can and often do produce heavier amounts.
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Southerly winds of 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" thunderstorms can and often do produce heavier amounts.
Confidence in this forecast is high
Thursday: Partly cloudy - hot and humid - scattered thunderstorms - some storms could be heavy
Above normal temperatures
Highs: mostly in the middle 90s | Normal
highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: scattered 0.25" thunderstorms can and often do produce heavier amounts.
Thursday night: Partly cloudy - warm and humid - isolated thunderstorms possible.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: scattered 0.25" thunderstorms can and often do produce heavier amounts.
Confidence in this forecast is high
Friday: Partly cloudy - hot and humid - scattered thunderstorms - a few storms could be on the strong side/small chance for severe storms.Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the lower to middle 90s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: scattered 0.25" thunderstorms can and often do produce heavier amounts.
Confidence in this forecast is high
Friday night: Partly cloudy - warm and humid - isolated thunderstorm - mainly early
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: South winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: scattered 0.25" thunderstorms can and often do produce heavier amounts.
Confidence in this forecast is medium
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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The heat returns this week - actual air temperatures will be in the 90s and "feels like" temperatures will be 95-105 degrees. Hot and humid - typical summer weather for our region. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will produce cloud to ground lightning, brief heavy rain, and gusty winds.
I am posting information about the drought on the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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Most likely no. Thunderstorms that form can produce locally heavy rain, brief gusty winds, and obviously lightning.
No wild card in this update
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No significant changes
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here. I also strongly encourage you to FRIEND some of the local media meteorologists - I follow all of them and so should you.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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Wednesday: Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Wednesday night : Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Thursday: Isolated severe weather is possible. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Thursday night: Isolated severe weather is possible. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes isolated.
Friday: Isolated severe weather is possible. No snow or ice.
Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
Wednesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Wednesday night : Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Thursday: Isolated severe weather is possible. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Thursday night: Isolated severe weather is possible. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes isolated.
Friday: Isolated severe weather is possible. No snow or ice.
Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
or
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
Wednesday - No
Thursday -Possible
Thursday night - Possible
Friday - No - unlikely
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
Wednesday - No
Thursday -Possible
Thursday night - Possible
Friday - No - unlikely
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The
links above are interactive and
you can move
around the United States by
simply clicking on the
national map - or
from the pull down menu
where it says regions and
US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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This
forecast
analysis covers far southern
Illinois, southeast
Missouri,
southwest Indiana,
western Kentucky, and
northwest
Tennessee
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HEADLINES: There will be a daily chance for scattered thunderstorms - perhaps isolated is a better word. Where a thunderstorm forms you will experience heavy downpours.
There will be a bit more coverage on Thursday into Friday as a disturbance moves through the region. Perhaps precipitation chances will be more in the 40%-60% range. A few storms could produce gusty winds and hail.
Let's take a look at the high temperature maps for the upcoming week - the center of the heat dome will be a bit to our west and northwest - that is where the 100-110 degree weather will most likely occur.
Let's
also take a look at some of the drought maps - the recent rainfall (in
some areas) does not really put much of a dent in the severe drought we
are experiencing.
No real relief in sight.
Meteorologists like to compare droughts to historic droughts - one way we measure a drought is the Palmer Drought Severity Index. I brought up the 1956, 1988, and 2012 drought (June) - to compare.
The first map is June of 1956 - the second map is June of 1988 - the last map is June of this year (2012).
Although we do not know what the rest of July holds - perhaps some chances for scattered thunderstorms - let's take a look at July of 1956 and 1988 - did the drought worsen? You can see these maps below. It appears there was some improvement - but overall the drought held on.
There has been some improvement in parts of our region over the last 2 weeks - vs the previous 4-6 weeks.
By the way - I looked up the following November through March of 1956/57 and 1988/1989 to see how the fall/winter shaped up (for precipitation). This is what the Palmer Drought Index showed.
1988/1989 showed remarkable improvement (we ended up with above normal precipitation and wet ground conditions). 1956/1957 continued with drought conditions.
Dates are above each map.
BUT - if I held off and ran just the February through June of 1957 - our region experienced above normal precipitation (similar to 1988/1989). If history were to repeat itself then that does offer some hope. I caution, though, that no two years are ever alike.
When I run the precipitation above or below normal - this is what I end up with for fall/winter of the 1956 and 1988 drought years. Fairly significant precipitation.
And for something a little different on the maps - let's take a look at the greenness maps - you can see that a large chunk of the nation has dry vegetation - drought. Click image for a larger view
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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HEADLINES: There will be a daily chance for scattered thunderstorms - perhaps isolated is a better word. Where a thunderstorm forms you will experience heavy downpours.
There will be a bit more coverage on Thursday into Friday as a disturbance moves through the region. Perhaps precipitation chances will be more in the 40%-60% range. A few storms could produce gusty winds and hail.
Let's take a look at the high temperature maps for the upcoming week - the center of the heat dome will be a bit to our west and northwest - that is where the 100-110 degree weather will most likely occur.
No real relief in sight.
Meteorologists like to compare droughts to historic droughts - one way we measure a drought is the Palmer Drought Severity Index. I brought up the 1956, 1988, and 2012 drought (June) - to compare.
The first map is June of 1956 - the second map is June of 1988 - the last map is June of this year (2012).
Although we do not know what the rest of July holds - perhaps some chances for scattered thunderstorms - let's take a look at July of 1956 and 1988 - did the drought worsen? You can see these maps below. It appears there was some improvement - but overall the drought held on.
There has been some improvement in parts of our region over the last 2 weeks - vs the previous 4-6 weeks.
By the way - I looked up the following November through March of 1956/57 and 1988/1989 to see how the fall/winter shaped up (for precipitation). This is what the Palmer Drought Index showed.
1988/1989 showed remarkable improvement (we ended up with above normal precipitation and wet ground conditions). 1956/1957 continued with drought conditions.
Dates are above each map.
BUT - if I held off and ran just the February through June of 1957 - our region experienced above normal precipitation (similar to 1988/1989). If history were to repeat itself then that does offer some hope. I caution, though, that no two years are ever alike.
And for something a little different on the maps - let's take a look at the greenness maps - you can see that a large chunk of the nation has dry vegetation - drought. Click image for a larger view
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's
check
out the how much rain is
forecast to fall
over the next 72
hours (5 days). This map gives
you a general
broad brushed idea of
what can be
expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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DROUGHT INFORMATION - CLICK HERE
Here are the latest 6-10 day temperature and 8-14 day temperature outlooks - see the date stamps at the top of each image
And here is the latest 6-10 day precipitation and 8-14 day precipitation forecast maps - not good news
Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here
If you are a weather enthusiast then I recommend listening to WeatherBrains each week! For a more in-depth look at what is happening in meteorology.
DROUGHT INFORMATION - CLICK HERE
Here are the latest 6-10 day temperature and 8-14 day temperature outlooks - see the date stamps at the top of each image
Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here
If you are a weather enthusiast then I recommend listening to WeatherBrains each week! For a more in-depth look at what is happening in meteorology.
Now is a GREAT
time to buy a NOAA All Hazards
Weather Radio. Better to have one
before storms
strike than to be without one
during an event. I recommend the
Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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