July 26th - Updated at midnight for severe weather chances on Thursday and Thursday night
July 23rd-27th - 2012
Monday through Friday update
I am in summer mode - that means I try to update every other day or every 2-3 days.
I also add new graphics and tweak the forecast during the day and evening hours - so check back for updates.
For more frequent updates check visit my weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
This blog is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky..
Monday: Hot and humid - drought conditions - an assortment of heat advisories and warnings have been issued - click here to view them
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the 96-104 range | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: Most areas will remain dry.
Confidence in this forecast is high
Monday night: Partly cloudy and warm.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower to middle 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: Southwest winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% - mainly early over southern counties | Rainfall totals: 0.00"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Tuesday: Hot and humid - drought conditions - an assortment of heat advisories and warnings have been issued - click here to view them
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the upper 90s and lower 100s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0.00"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Tuesday night: Mostly clear and warm - muggy.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 60s to lower 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: Southwest winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0.00"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wednesday: Hot and humid - drought conditions - an assortment of heat advisories and warnings have been issued - click here to view them
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the upper 90s and lower 100s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0.00"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wednesday night: A few clouds - warm - muggy.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle to upper 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: scattered 0.25" thunderstorms can and often do produce heavier amounts.
Confidence in this forecast is high
Thursday: Hot and humid -a chance for thunderstorms - an assortment of heat advisories and warnings have been issued - click here to view them
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the middle to upper 90s with pockets of 100 possible | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" - but locally heavier in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is high
Thursday night: Partly cloudy - muggy - a few thunderstorms possible - a few may be severe
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle to upper 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals: 0.50" - but locally heavier in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is high
Friday: Hot and humid - a few scattered thunderstorms possible
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the middle to upper 90s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" - but locally heavier in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is high
Friday night: A few clouds - warm and muggy - a chance for a thunderstorm
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.00"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
Monday: Hot and humid - drought conditions - an assortment of heat advisories and warnings have been issued - click here to view them
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the 96-104 range | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: Most areas will remain dry.
Confidence in this forecast is high
Monday night: Partly cloudy and warm.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower to middle 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: Southwest winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% - mainly early over southern counties | Rainfall totals: 0.00"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Tuesday: Hot and humid - drought conditions - an assortment of heat advisories and warnings have been issued - click here to view them
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the upper 90s and lower 100s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0.00"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Tuesday night: Mostly clear and warm - muggy.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 60s to lower 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: Southwest winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0.00"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wednesday: Hot and humid - drought conditions - an assortment of heat advisories and warnings have been issued - click here to view them
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the upper 90s and lower 100s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0.00"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wednesday night: A few clouds - warm - muggy.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle to upper 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: scattered 0.25" thunderstorms can and often do produce heavier amounts.
Confidence in this forecast is high
Thursday: Hot and humid -a chance for thunderstorms - an assortment of heat advisories and warnings have been issued - click here to view them
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the middle to upper 90s with pockets of 100 possible | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" - but locally heavier in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is high
Thursday night: Partly cloudy - muggy - a few thunderstorms possible - a few may be severe
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle to upper 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals: 0.50" - but locally heavier in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is high
Friday: Hot and humid - a few scattered thunderstorms possible
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the middle to upper 90s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" - but locally heavier in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is high
Friday night: A few clouds - warm and muggy - a chance for a thunderstorm
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.00"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
A few thunderstorms may be severe on Thursday into Thursday night - high winds is the main concern with isolated hail reports possible.
Heat - plain and simple. The heat wave will continue into this week with multiple days in the upper 90s to lower 100's.
I am posting information about the drought on the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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Monitor severe weather chances on Thursday and Thursday night.
Main concern will be the heat - don't forget to check on elderly residents. The toll of a heat wave is typically cumulative in nature. That means that with each passing day it can wear on the body more and more.
Let's also remember outdoor pets - change the water bowls frequently with fresh water.
Basic/common sense heat safety rules will be necessary over the coming weeks.
Outdoor sporting events, where children are involved, should consider rescheduling either early morning and later in the evening.
No wild card in this update
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No major changes in this forecast
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here. I also strongly encourage you to FRIEND some of the local media meteorologists - I follow all of them and so should you.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Unlikely
Monday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Unlikely
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Isolated
Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Unlikely
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Isolated
Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Unlikely
Thursday: A few thunderstorms could become severe with high winds and hail. No snow or ice..
Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Scattered
Thursday night: A few severe thunderstorms will be possible in the evening. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Friday: Isolated report or two possible. No snow or ice..
Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Scattered
Friday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Scattered
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
Monday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Unlikely
Monday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Unlikely
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Isolated
Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Unlikely
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Isolated
Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Unlikely
Thursday: A few thunderstorms could become severe with high winds and hail. No snow or ice..
Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Scattered
Thursday night: A few severe thunderstorms will be possible in the evening. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Friday: Isolated report or two possible. No snow or ice..
Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Scattered
Friday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Scattered
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
or
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
Monday - No
Tuesday - No
Wednesday - No
Thursday - Watches are likely
Thursday night - Watches will be possible
Friday - Unlikely - more to our northeast
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
Monday - No
Tuesday - No
Wednesday - No
Thursday - Watches are likely
Thursday night - Watches will be possible
Friday - Unlikely - more to our northeast
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The
links above are interactive and
you can move
around the United States by
simply clicking on the
national map - or
from the pull down menu
where it says regions and
US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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This
forecast
analysis covers far southern
Illinois, southeast
Missouri,
southwest Indiana,
western Kentucky, and
northwest
Tennessee
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HEADLINES: How many ways can I say it is going to be hot? I am starting to run out - I am afraid I do not have any good news on the weather front this week. Temperatures will be well into the 90s and lower 100s right on into Friday and perhaps beyond.
It is August and typically we see plenty of hot weather during this month - the heat will only be intensified by the drought.
A cold front will bring thunderstorm chances on Thursday into Thursday night - a few of the storms could become severe with highs winds and hail. Heavy downpours are also possible - frequent lightning. Monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local media if thunderstorms threaten.
Here is the future cast radar from the St Louis, MO WRF - it shows a line of storms moving through our region on Thursday evening and night.
Widespread drought continues over a huge portion of the United States - this is going to be an extremely costly disaster - likely in the tens of billions of dollars before all is said and done. Certainly bad news for farmers and for world crop production.
Here are some interesting statistics that Dr. Jeff Masters posted
The great U.S. drought of 2012 continues to accelerate, and grew larger and more intense over the past week, said NOAA in their weekly U.S. Drought Monitor report issued Thursday, July 19. The area of the contiguous U.S. covered by drought expanded from 61% to 64%, and the area covered by severe or greater drought jumped from 37% to 42%. These are truly historic levels of drought, exceeded only during the great Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s and a severe drought in the mid-1950s. If we make the reasonable assumption that the current area covered by drought is representative of what the average for the entire month of July will be (based on the latest drought forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center), the July 2012 drought is second only to the great Dust Bowl drought of July 1934 in terms of the area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought. The five months with the greatest percent area in moderate or greater drought, since 1895, now look like this:
1) Jul 1934, 80%
2) Jul 2012, 64%
3) Dec 1939, 60%
4) Jul 1954, 60%
5) Dec 1956, 58%
If we consider the area of the contiguous U.S. covered by severe or greater drought, July 2012 ranks in 5th place:
1) Jul 1934, 63%
2) Sep 1954, 50%
3) Dec 1956, 43%
4) Aug 1936, 43%
5) Jul 2012, 42%
The long range maps do not provide much hope for relief either. Perhaps the only good news is that the core of the heat will remain slightly to our west and northwest. That doesn't change the fact that it will remain hot and dry in our region. Drought conditions will only intensify during the upcoming week.
The dome of high pressure - the heat dome - will remain in place for most of this week.
Click for larger view of this image
I wish I had better news.
Here are the high temperature forecasts for the coming days - plenty of heat over a wide span of the United States.
You can view the high and low temperatures forecasts - zoom in on regions and more by clicking here
We have a TON of new weather maps on
the Weather
Observatory
web-site - these include
temperatures, wind speed,
dew points, heat
index,
barometric
pressure, predicted
rainfall,
climate forecast, medium
and long
range maps,
forecasts and more! Click here
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HEADLINES: How many ways can I say it is going to be hot? I am starting to run out - I am afraid I do not have any good news on the weather front this week. Temperatures will be well into the 90s and lower 100s right on into Friday and perhaps beyond.
It is August and typically we see plenty of hot weather during this month - the heat will only be intensified by the drought.
A cold front will bring thunderstorm chances on Thursday into Thursday night - a few of the storms could become severe with highs winds and hail. Heavy downpours are also possible - frequent lightning. Monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local media if thunderstorms threaten.
Here is the future cast radar from the St Louis, MO WRF - it shows a line of storms moving through our region on Thursday evening and night.
Widespread drought continues over a huge portion of the United States - this is going to be an extremely costly disaster - likely in the tens of billions of dollars before all is said and done. Certainly bad news for farmers and for world crop production.
Here are some interesting statistics that Dr. Jeff Masters posted
The great U.S. drought of 2012 continues to accelerate, and grew larger and more intense over the past week, said NOAA in their weekly U.S. Drought Monitor report issued Thursday, July 19. The area of the contiguous U.S. covered by drought expanded from 61% to 64%, and the area covered by severe or greater drought jumped from 37% to 42%. These are truly historic levels of drought, exceeded only during the great Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s and a severe drought in the mid-1950s. If we make the reasonable assumption that the current area covered by drought is representative of what the average for the entire month of July will be (based on the latest drought forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center), the July 2012 drought is second only to the great Dust Bowl drought of July 1934 in terms of the area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought. The five months with the greatest percent area in moderate or greater drought, since 1895, now look like this:
1) Jul 1934, 80%
2) Jul 2012, 64%
3) Dec 1939, 60%
4) Jul 1954, 60%
5) Dec 1956, 58%
If we consider the area of the contiguous U.S. covered by severe or greater drought, July 2012 ranks in 5th place:
1) Jul 1934, 63%
2) Sep 1954, 50%
3) Dec 1956, 43%
4) Aug 1936, 43%
5) Jul 2012, 42%
The dome of high pressure - the heat dome - will remain in place for most of this week.
Click for larger view of this image
I wish I had better news.
Here are the high temperature forecasts for the coming days - plenty of heat over a wide span of the United States.
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's
check
out the how much rain is
forecast to fall
over the next 120
hours. This map gives
you a general
broad brushed idea of
what can be
expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
Remember that thunderstorms can produce locally heavy rainfall totals that will exceed the totals shown on this map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
Remember that thunderstorms can produce locally heavy rainfall totals that will exceed the totals shown on this map.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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1. Heat
- heat and more heat. Drought will continue across our region - no
real relief in sight. We need a tropical system to help break our
drought. The Atlantic, however, is very quiet. You can see in this
satellite image below - lot of dusty/dry air coming off the African
Coast. This is not good news for those wanting to see some tropical
activity.
Click image for larger view
The core of the heat over the coming 5-10 day period will continue to be just to our west - although we will still be hot. Click image for a bigger view.
DROUGHT INFORMATION - CLICK HERE
Here are the latest 6-10 day temperature and 8-14 day temperature outlooks - see the date stamps at the top of each image
Here is the latest July through September temperature outlook
Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here
If you are a weather enthusiast then I recommend listening to WeatherBrains each week! For a more in-depth look at what is happening in meteorology.
Click image for larger view
The core of the heat over the coming 5-10 day period will continue to be just to our west - although we will still be hot. Click image for a bigger view.
Here are the latest 6-10 day temperature and 8-14 day temperature outlooks - see the date stamps at the top of each image
Here is the latest July through September temperature outlook
Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here
If you are a weather enthusiast then I recommend listening to WeatherBrains each week! For a more in-depth look at what is happening in meteorology.
Now is a GREAT
time to buy a NOAA All Hazards
Weather Radio. Better to have one
before storms
strike than to be without one
during an event. I recommend the
Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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