Friday through Monday update
I am in summer mode - that means I try to update every other day or every 2-3 days. If the weather is active then I will come in and update the forecast as needed. I will also note an update at the very top of the blog update.
I also add new graphics and tweak the forecast during the day and evening hours - so check back for updates.
For more frequent updates check visit my weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky..
Friday: Partly cloudy - hot but not as muggy. A chance for a few showers and thunderstorms - mainly over our southern counties KY/TN border and into Tennessee.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the lower to middle 90s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: North winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: scattered 0.25" thunderstorms can and often do produce heavier amounts - again this is mainly KY/TN border counties down into Tennessee.
Confidence in this forecast is high
Friday night: Partly cloudy and mild.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: North winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% - mainly early over southern counties | Rainfall totals: 0.00"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Saturday: Partly cloudy and hot. Not quite as humid/muggy as the past week.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the lower to middle 90s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: North/northeast winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0.00"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Saturday night: Mostly clear and mild.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 60s to lower 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: North/northeast winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% - mainly early | Rainfall totals: 0.00"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Sunday: Partly cloudy and hot - muggier over our southern southeast Missouri - Kentucky and Tennessee counties where dew points will be on the rise - possibly into parts of southern Illinois.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the middle to upper 90s - pockets of 100 possible| Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: North winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0.00"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Sunday night: Mostly clear skies and warm.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: East winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: scattered 0.25" thunderstorms can and often do produce heavier amounts.
Confidence in this forecast is high
Monday: Mostly sunny and hot. Muggier.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the middle to upper 90s with pockets of 100 possible | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0.00"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Monday night: A few clouds - warm and muggy
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0.00"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
Friday: Partly cloudy - hot but not as muggy. A chance for a few showers and thunderstorms - mainly over our southern counties KY/TN border and into Tennessee.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the lower to middle 90s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: North winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: scattered 0.25" thunderstorms can and often do produce heavier amounts - again this is mainly KY/TN border counties down into Tennessee.
Confidence in this forecast is high
Friday night: Partly cloudy and mild.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: North winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% - mainly early over southern counties | Rainfall totals: 0.00"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Saturday: Partly cloudy and hot. Not quite as humid/muggy as the past week.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the lower to middle 90s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: North/northeast winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0.00"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Saturday night: Mostly clear and mild.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 60s to lower 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: North/northeast winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% - mainly early | Rainfall totals: 0.00"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Sunday: Partly cloudy and hot - muggier over our southern southeast Missouri - Kentucky and Tennessee counties where dew points will be on the rise - possibly into parts of southern Illinois.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the middle to upper 90s - pockets of 100 possible| Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: North winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0.00"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Sunday night: Mostly clear skies and warm.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: East winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: scattered 0.25" thunderstorms can and often do produce heavier amounts.
Confidence in this forecast is high
Monday: Mostly sunny and hot. Muggier.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the middle to upper 90s with pockets of 100 possible | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0.00"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Monday night: A few clouds - warm and muggy
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0.00"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
I am posting information about the drought on the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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A chance for a few storms on Friday/Friday evening over our far southern counties - KY/TN border counties and down into Tennessee - further south you travel the better the chance - also into parts of south central Kentucky.
Temperatures and dew points will be on the rise by Sunday into Monday.
No wild card in this update
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No major changes in this forecast
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here. I also strongly encourage you to FRIEND some of the local media meteorologists - I follow all of them and so should you.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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Friday: Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - southern counties
Friday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Far southern counties
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Saturday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice..
Monday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Unlikely
Monday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Unlikely
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - southern counties
Friday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Far southern counties
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Saturday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice..
Monday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Unlikely
Monday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Unlikely
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
or
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
Monday - No
Tuesday - No
Wednesday - No
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
Monday - No
Tuesday - No
Wednesday - No
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The
links above are interactive and
you can move
around the United States by
simply clicking on the
national map - or
from the pull down menu
where it says regions and
US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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This
forecast
analysis covers far southern
Illinois, southeast
Missouri,
southwest Indiana,
western Kentucky, and
northwest
Tennessee
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HEADLINES: Strong to severe thunderstorms rolled through the region on Thursday and Thursday night ahead of a southward moving cold front. A few of the storms produced wind gusts in the 60-70 mph range - some hail was also reported. Not everyone experienced rain (what else is new). Those who did pick up rain recorded anywhere from trace amounts to more than 1". Many areas did remain dry - unfortunately.
One thunderstorm moved through southeast Missouri early on Thursday afternoon - I did a scan of the storm via radar - you can see the precipitation reaching to above 50,000' into the atmosphere. The pink area is likely a hail core - this cell produced a severe thunderstorm warning.
Click the image for a full size view.
Radar on Thursday evening shows thunderstorms along and ahead of a cold front moving through the Ohio Valley - the front will bring lower dew points and humidity to the region on Friday into Sunday - although it will still be hot.
Check out the satellite imagery on Thursday evening - these are thunderstorms showing up on the IR image. Some of the storms had tops over 60,000'.
Click image for a bigger view.
Here is the dew point map for Saturday afternoon - dew points from 60-80 feel moist to muggy. Dew points in the 50s will feel much better. We have been experiencing dew points in the upper 60s to middle 70s.
Here is the Saturday forecast map from www.wright-weather.com
Click image for full size view - this map shows DEW POINTS (not temperatures)
But - don't get used to the lower dew points - they will be on the rise by Sunday
Click image for the full size view
Drought continues to spread across the country - the latest numbers and drought forecasts showed no real hope for the foreseeable future.
Check out these YEAR TO DATE departures in precipitation and temperature. These maps are courtesy of the High Plains Regional Climate Center
First the percent of normal precipitation - 100% would be normal precipitation. We are far far from that.
And now temperatures - YEAR TO DATE
Here is the official drought forecast from NOAA - this is a huge area of the nation covered in drought.
Click image for a full size view of the drought forecast. The dark red/brown area represents where drought is likely to continue or grow worse.
Hot weather will continue into next week - I suspect we will see more 100 degree readings over the next 7-10 days. Our long and hot summer continues.
High temp forecasts - again the core of the heat will be to our west - but we will not escape the heat.
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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HEADLINES: Strong to severe thunderstorms rolled through the region on Thursday and Thursday night ahead of a southward moving cold front. A few of the storms produced wind gusts in the 60-70 mph range - some hail was also reported. Not everyone experienced rain (what else is new). Those who did pick up rain recorded anywhere from trace amounts to more than 1". Many areas did remain dry - unfortunately.
One thunderstorm moved through southeast Missouri early on Thursday afternoon - I did a scan of the storm via radar - you can see the precipitation reaching to above 50,000' into the atmosphere. The pink area is likely a hail core - this cell produced a severe thunderstorm warning.
Click the image for a full size view.
Click image for a bigger view.
Here is the dew point map for Saturday afternoon - dew points from 60-80 feel moist to muggy. Dew points in the 50s will feel much better. We have been experiencing dew points in the upper 60s to middle 70s.
Here is the Saturday forecast map from www.wright-weather.com
Click image for full size view - this map shows DEW POINTS (not temperatures)
Click image for the full size view
Drought continues to spread across the country - the latest numbers and drought forecasts showed no real hope for the foreseeable future.
Check out these YEAR TO DATE departures in precipitation and temperature. These maps are courtesy of the High Plains Regional Climate Center
First the percent of normal precipitation - 100% would be normal precipitation. We are far far from that.
And now temperatures - YEAR TO DATE
Here is the official drought forecast from NOAA - this is a huge area of the nation covered in drought.
Click image for a full size view of the drought forecast. The dark red/brown area represents where drought is likely to continue or grow worse.
Hot weather will continue into next week - I suspect we will see more 100 degree readings over the next 7-10 days. Our long and hot summer continues.
High temp forecasts - again the core of the heat will be to our west - but we will not escape the heat.
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's
check
out the how much rain is
forecast to fall
over the next 72
hours (5 days). This map gives
you a general
broad brushed idea of
what can be
expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
Remember that thunderstorms can produce locally heavy rainfall totals that will exceed the totals shown on this map. The rain you see on here will mostly be on Friday - and mostly to our south. Don't expect much elsewhere in the region
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
Remember that thunderstorms can produce locally heavy rainfall totals that will exceed the totals shown on this map. The rain you see on here will mostly be on Friday - and mostly to our south. Don't expect much elsewhere in the region
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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1. Heat - heat and more heat. Drought will continue across our region - no real relief in sight. We need a tropical system to help break our drought. The Atlantic, however, is very quiet. You can see in this satellite image below - lot of dusty/dry air coming off the African Coast. This is not good news for those wanting to see some tropical activity.
Click image for larger view
The core of the heat over the coming 5-10 day period will continue to be just to our west - although we will still be hot. Click image for a bigger view.
DROUGHT INFORMATION - CLICK HERE
Here are the latest 6-10 day temperature and 8-14 day temperature outlooks - see the date stamps at the top of each image
Here is the latest July through September temperature outlook
Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here
If you are a weather enthusiast then I recommend listening to WeatherBrains each week! For a more in-depth look at what is happening in meteorology.
Click image for larger view
The core of the heat over the coming 5-10 day period will continue to be just to our west - although we will still be hot. Click image for a bigger view.
Here are the latest 6-10 day temperature and 8-14 day temperature outlooks - see the date stamps at the top of each image
Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here
If you are a weather enthusiast then I recommend listening to WeatherBrains each week! For a more in-depth look at what is happening in meteorology.
Now is a GREAT
time to buy a NOAA All Hazards
Weather Radio. Better to have one
before storms
strike than to be without one
during an event. I recommend the
Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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