Late night tonight - forecasting for the weekends events - not overly concerned about the severe weather potential. Few showers and storms with the cold front later today. Once again most of us will not receive rain. Scattered - at best. Best chances over the eastern half of the region. Also put some more thoughts together on the coming "cool down" - which I am sure will be appreciated.
Here is the latest official 8-14 day outlook. The blue is cooler than normal and orange/red is above normal. Now remember - please - that that means the odds favor above or below normal temperatures. It does not mean that every day will be above or below normal in the temperature department. It is a probability of being above or below normal. Odds favor normal to below normal for our region. Click image for large view.
When seasons change the weather models have a hard time adjusting. The coming weeks will likely bring unsettled weather to our region. Several major players are on the playing field. One being a potential hurricane developing in the Caribbean. Another being a strong La Nina developing in the Pacific Ocean.
What all this means for our sensible weather?
Current indications are that we will finally break our amazing summer of heat and humidity. Much cooler air is forecast to filter into the region over the coming weekend and into next week (and possibly the following week). Some of these changes are going to be dependent on the eventual path of Matthew (the tropical storm/hurricane forming in the Caribbean). Keep in mind that Matthew may or may not be the only game in town. There are indications that more than one system may develop. So Matthew may not be the system the GFS model is showing hitting Florida. Look for additional development in the Caribbean.
In order the cooler air to win out - though - we need for the tropical system to move up the east coast of the United States. So - there are definitely some factors that absolutely must come together in order for us to see a significant pattern shift. Lots to watch on the weather map in the coming days.
Forecast...
Today - windy - clouds will increase with the cold front and scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur along and ahead of the front. Not everyone will see rain (nothing new there). The front should move through the area by this evening and tonight. You can check regional and local radar on my weather observatory web-site. (you can hover over these links and click them)
Saturday will most likely be the pick day of the weekend. Sunday into early next week will be unsettled. Remember that cut-off low we talked about in the previous forecast post? Well - it looks like it will be forming over the Missouri Valley and will push through our region in the coming days. This will bring clouds and at least a chance for showers.
Let's take a look at the official five day rainfall forecast. This is issued by those on the national level - usually they broad brush the map. You get the general idea. Heavy rains to our west and east. Our area is expected to see some rain showers and light rain - possibly a few thunderstorms. Rainfall totals don't appear very impressive. Generally less than 0.25-0.50". Click for larger image.
The map below was produced by the Paducah, Kentucky National Weather Service Office. Click on map for larger view (click on any of the maps below for larger views)
The long range outlook for next week and into the first few days of October. Below normal temperatures and most likely below normal precipitation. The wild card will be the tropical weather moving through the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. If we can pull one of those systems into our region then we would see more appreciable rainfall. For now - we will stick with below normal precipitation and update accordingly.
I agree with Joe Bastardi and some others who are saying that the Caribbean is going to be primed for tropical development in the coming weeks. We see that Matthew has already developed (as expected - we have been talking about this potential for over a week). Waters are extremely warm in both the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. We are moving into the climatologically favored zone for development in the above mentioned areas. If that occurs then obviously the threats to the United States would increase. Something well worth watching.
A few forecast weather maps
Dramatic change in the overall wind flow - this map is the 500 mb level (high up in the atmosphere). You can see how the jet stream buckles and pushes south from Canada into our region. The bright reds and purple are strong winds. If this does occur then we can expect normal to below normal temperatures for a period of time. You will see the map is dated for the first part of October. A nice change from our heat and humidity.
This is a temperature forecast map for October 4th (above). Now keep in mind that long range models are not very good at capturing the details. However, you get the general idea - this model is predicting chilly temperatures as we move closer to the first few days of October. I doubt it will be this cold. The GFS model which is depicted here is notorious for showing temperatures too cold. But, at least it is showing much cooler air than we have experienced in some time. Again - let's hope it verifies. I know everyone is tired of the heat. The above maps were provided by http://www.wright-weather.com/.
One thing that is missing from the long range forecast data - rain. The drought may worsen. The wild card would be tropical activity that might move out of the Gulf of Mexico. Long shot - but something to keep in mind. No real changes from my early September thoughts on that subject.
Here is the latest 8-14 day precipitation outlook. Brown areas favor below normal precipitation. Remember this is a probability forecast. That means that odds favor below normal precipitation. Of interest is the above normal area on the east coast (green). That is because of the potential of a tropical storm or hurricane (at least one or two) influencing their weather.
Let's take a quick look at the very latest drought information. The drought monitor maps are showing parts of our region have been placed in severe drought conditions. The areas shaded in yellow and orange are extremely dry. Again click on the map for a larger view and/or visit the link above for more information.
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