Note - on the long range comments below - pasted from my previous fall outlook posting.
Keep in mind that it only takes one big snow or ice event for the public to perceive the winter as being "severe, extreme, or bad." Just because we may experience above normal temperatures this winter does not mean we won't see extreme swings. I am not a huge fan of long range outlooks. However, a lot of people do show interest in the subject.
Also - as we look ahead to the winter months - above normal temperatures don't always equate to a mild winter.
End of previous comments...
Today
I have nothing bad to say about the weather. It is a beautiful day in the tri-state area. Temperatures will be near normal and the sun will be shining. Can't complain about that forecast.
The cold front on Saturday passed through our immediate local counties without much fanfare. A few showers and storms were reported over the western half of the area and southern half. The Carbondale to Paducah area remained dry. Severe storms developed to our east in central and eastern Kentucky.
The next threat for showers will not arrive until late in the week.
We have a new hurricane and a new tropical depression. The tropics are busy! At this time none of these are a threat to the United States. However, there could be significant flooding in Central America. Still quite a bit of time to watch each area of disturbed weather. There are some indications that this system could move further north than numerical guidance is indicating. If this indeed is the case then we could have a tropical threat in the Gulf of Mexico. Click here for more information on the tropics.
There are a lot of indicators that the coming weeks will bring above normal tropical activity. Several more hurricanes are likely to form in the Atlantic basin and several of those will likely become major hurricanes.
NOAA reports that this past summer was the fourth warmest on record. That report covers the entire nation - not just our local area.
You can read more about the report by clicking here.
To read more about our local region (summer data) then please visit the Paducah, Kentucky National Weather Service web-site - click here.
The latest 8-14 day outlook has been released - matches up with my fall forecast. At least so far (we all know that mother nature is fickle)! Fall is defined as September through November. Above normal temperatures are forecast and fairly dry conditions.
Above: Your 8-14 day temperature outlook - click for larger image
Above: Your 8-14 day precipitation outlook - click for larger image
Also the drought is spreading across the entire region into the southern United States. Yes, the recent rains did help. However, we need to see rain consistently for a few weeks in order to break the drought across the entire region. The remnants of tropical storm Hermine certainly helped.
The latest drought monitor map - below - click image for a larger view:
And I also have just received the latest long range outlook. Keep in mind that this is just one indicator of how the fall and winter months might unfold. There are many factors that can change or influence the eventual outcome. Also remember that even though we might be above normal in the temperature department that does NOT mean that we won't have snow or ice - or even some wicked cold waves. Just keep that in mind!
Weather is made up of extremes. The big/bad winters that most of us remember are normally made up of one or two big snow or ice events. So, you could conceivably have a fairly decent winter (in the temperature department) and still end up with a significant snowstorm or ice storm. Thus is weather!
And - as those who follow the blog know - sometimes the short term forecast doesn't even pan out correctly. Last weeks heavy rains is just one example. We received twice as much rainfall as expected. Although I did leave open the possibility of that happening. I still considered it a poor forecast.
But, with that said - I will share the updated maps below.
Latest maps - click for large image (red is above normal temperatures - blue is below normal temperatures)
First map is September through November (below):
Second map is December through February (below):
The third map is for March through May (below):
Also note the RAGING La Nina - this could be a significant La Nina event. The La Nina is noted by the blue colors in the Pacific Ocean basin. Below normal water temperatures (El Nino would be above normal temperatures).
Below: Sea surface water temperatures - click for larger image (this is quite amazing from a meteorological stand point)
And finally - I will throw one more map into the mix. The precipitation forecast - continues to indicate a wet winter for our region. There are a lot of other areas that are below normal. So, confidence in this map would be quite low. However, La Nina's do typically create wet winters in our region. Snow, ice, thunderstorms, and rain. Severe weather events, as well.
Below: Precipitation forecast - blue is above normal and red is below normal precipitation. Click image for a larger view.
The maps above were supplied by the JAMSTEC - Indian Ocean Dipole web-site - that can be viewed here.
El Nino index - this chart shows the current state of La Nina - we just came off of an El Nino. I believe this is one of the steeper drops in recorded history.
And for good measure - let me throw one more map into the ring (below). This CAS map shows December - above normal temperatures and much above normal precipitation. For what it is worth (click image to enlarge)
Now back to reality - short term. :) Your seven day forecast can be viewed here.
Have a nice week
- Beau Dodson
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