Warming trend - then rain!

November 9th-11th

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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...

Thursday night:  Clear and not as cool - a few patches of fog possible
Lows: in the middle to upper 30s
Wind: South winds at 1-5 mph
Precipitation probability - 0%  | Rainfall totals: 0"

Confidence in this forecast is very high

Friday:  A few patches of morning fog possible - sunny and warmer than recent days. 

Highs: Mainly in the 65-70 range
Wind: South winds at 8-15 mph and gusty 
Precipitation probability - 0%  | Rainfall totals:
  0"
Confidence in this forecast is high

Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here 
 
Friday night:  A few clouds - milder than recent nights
Lows: in the upper 40s and lower 50s
Wind: South winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0%  | Rainfall totals: 0"

Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Saturday: Sunny and much warmer - mild for November.  Windy at times.
Highs:  In the 70-75 degree range 

Wind: South winds at 10-20 mph and gusty 
Precipitation probability - 0% |  Rainfall totals:  0"

Confidence in this forecast is high
 
Saturday night: Mostly clear and mild.
Lows: in the 50-54 degree range  
Wind:  South winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% |  Rainfall totals: 0"

Confidence in this forecast is high 

Sunday Partly sunny and warmer.  Breezy ahead of our next cold front

Highs:  in the lower 70s  
Wind: South winds at 10-20 mph - gusts above 25 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% late in the day |  Rainfall totals:  0"

Confidence in this forecast is high


Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here




This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee

HEADLINES:  Welcome to the approaching weekend!  I have great news for you.  The weekend will be mild by November standards.  Temperatures will be in the 70s on both Saturday and Sunday.  With some sunshine it will feel nice outside.  There will be gusty winds from the south.  This will be ahead of a strong cold front that will sweep through our region on Sunday night and Monday.


The front will enter our western counties on Sunday night and move across our whole region by Monday afternoon.  Showers and some thunderstorms will accompany the frontal system.  Severe weather threat appears low - little instability to work with.  I will monitor, as always, this part of the forecast.  Wind fields are strong with this system - but with little instability to work with.

Rainfall amounts with this system should be in the 0.50-1.00" range.  I increased them a little bit from  my previous update.  It appears that the front will be slow moving.  

Here is what the average rainfall totals should look like for Sunday  night and Monday


Gusty winds will occur ahead of the front on Saturday and Sunday.  Boaters should use care if out  on area lakes.

Temperatures will fall behind the cold front on Monday and Tuesday.  Typical for November.  Warm up ahead of the front and cool down behind the front.




Gusty winds for boaters on Saturday and Sunday - use a bit of care



No - unless you are a boater. 

 

No wild cards in this forecast package 


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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here


We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more!  Click here 

 
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms.  Click here to join
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather

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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado.   

 
Thursday: 
Severe weather is not anticipated No snow or ice. 

Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits  No

Friday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.

Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits?  No 

Saturday :  Severe weather is not anticipated
.  No snow or ice.
Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits?  No

For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
or 
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here  

To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here

 

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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?

 
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No  

To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here  Alternative link - click here
 
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To view all watches and warnings in IL -  Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here

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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning  map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here


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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site.  For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.



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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site !
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  I have added all of eastern Kentucky, as well.


We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS ---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars?  I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall in our region.  This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected.  Remember the scale is at the top of the map.

Click the link below - then choose your the time period you are interested in! 


 CLICK HERE FOR THE RAINFALL GRAPHIC - then choose the time frame above the image

 

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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time.  Those maps can be viewed here.  

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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in 
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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1.  Fairly active storm pattern setting up for the middle and end of November - I am expecting 2-4 storm systems to roll through our region with chances for showers and some thunderstorms.  Too early to mention any severe weather concerns - but monitor future updates.

  
Latest drought information:
DROUGHT INFORMATION - CLICK HERE 


Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here


If you are a weather enthusiast then I recommend listening to WeatherBrains each week!  For a more in-depth look at what is happening in meteorology.





Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio.  Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event.  I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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