Sunday through Thursday update
I am in summer mode - that means I try to update every other day or every 2-3 days. If the weather is active then I will update the forecast as needed. Check back for updated graphics, as well.
For more frequent updates check visit my weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
Wind: Southwest 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 40%-60% (smaller chances over MO/IL) | Rainfall totals: 0.25-0.50" - thunderstorms can and often do produce heavier amounts.
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Sunday night: Partly cloudy - an early evening thunderstorm possible over our eastern counties.
Wind: Northerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0.25-0.50" thunderstorms can and often do produce heavier amounts.
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Monday: Mostly sunny and not as hot
Near normal temperatures
Highs: in the upper 80s and lower 90s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Wind: Easterly 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - less than 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Sunday: Partly cloudy - warm - a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will be more likely over southern Indiana into western Kentucky and western Tennessee. Lesser chances over the western part of the region. A few storms could become severe if the atmosphere can recover from any morning cloud cover and showers/storms.
Near normal temperatures
Highs: in the upper 80s and lower 90s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.Near normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 40%-60% (smaller chances over MO/IL) | Rainfall totals: 0.25-0.50" - thunderstorms can and often do produce heavier amounts.
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Sunday night: Partly cloudy - an early evening thunderstorm possible over our eastern counties.
Near normal temperatures
Lows: in the 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.Wind: Northerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0.25-0.50" thunderstorms can and often do produce heavier amounts.
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Monday: Mostly sunny and not as hot
Near normal temperatures
Wind: Easterly 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - less than 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Monday night: Mostly clear - nice
Wind: Easterly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - less than 10% | Rainfall totals: 0."
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and a bit warmer
Wind: Southeast at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - less than 10% | Rainfall totals: 0."
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: Easterly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - less than 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: Southerly winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - less than 10% | Rainfall totals: 0."
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wind: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 40%-60% | Rainfall totals: scattered 0.25" thunderstorms can and often do produce heavier amounts.
Confidence in this forecast is medium
Thursday night: Partly cloudy - scattered thunderstorms possible.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: scattered 0.25" thunderstorms can and often do produce heavier amounts.
Confidence in this forecast is medium
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Below normal temperatures
Lows: in the 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.Wind: Easterly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - less than 10% | Rainfall totals: 0."
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and a bit warmer
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the lower to middle 90s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.Wind: Southeast at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - less than 10% | Rainfall totals: 0."
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Tuesday night: Mostly clear skies
Near normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.Wind: Easterly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - less than 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wednesday: Partly cloudy - hot
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the 94-98 degree range | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southerly winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - less than 10% | Rainfall totals: 0."
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wednesday night: Partly cloudy - a chance for a thunderstormAbove normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds of 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Southerly winds of 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Thursday: Partly cloudy - a chance for scattered thunderstorms
Above normal temperatures
Highs: mostly in the lower 90s | Normal
highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 40%-60% | Rainfall totals: scattered 0.25" thunderstorms can and often do produce heavier amounts.
Thursday night: Partly cloudy - scattered thunderstorms possible.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: scattered 0.25" thunderstorms can and often do produce heavier amounts.
Confidence in this forecast is medium
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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A few thunderstorms could produce severe weather on Sunday (August 5th) - the greatest concern would be over parts of southern Indiana into Kentucky and Tennessee. The risk appears limited - a few isolated high wind and hail reports can't be ruled out. Frequent lightning is also a concern.
The threat for severe storms will depend on how much the atmosphere can recover from morning thunderstorms and cloud cover. If the atmosphere can heat up then more energy will be available.
I am posting information about the drought on the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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Monitor radars on Sunday (August 5th) for thunderstorms - especially over Indiana into Kentucky and Tennessee. A bit more uncertain for southern Illinois and southeast Missouri - will need to see where the cold front is placed..
No wild card in this update
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Tweaked temperatures a little bit
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here. I also strongly encourage you to FRIEND some of the local media meteorologists - I follow all of them and so should you.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
Sunday: A few storms could become severe with high winds and hail. No snow or ice.
Sunday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Sunday night: Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Ending Sunday evening
Monday: Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Monday night: Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Tuesday: Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Tuesday night : Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Wednesday: Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Wednesday night : Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Thursday: A chance for a few severe thunderstorms. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Thursday night: Monitor for updates - perhaps a chance. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Friday: Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
Wednesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Wednesday night : Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Thursday: A chance for a few severe thunderstorms. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Thursday night: Monitor for updates - perhaps a chance. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Friday: Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
or
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
Sunday - Possible - mainly over southern parts of west KY into Tennessee - risk is small
Monday - No
Tuesday - No
Wednesday - No
Thursday - Monitor
Thursday night - Monitor
Friday -No
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
Sunday - Possible - mainly over southern parts of west KY into Tennessee - risk is small
Monday - No
Tuesday - No
Wednesday - No
Thursday - Monitor
Thursday night - Monitor
Friday -No
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The
links above are interactive and
you can move
around the United States by
simply clicking on the
national map - or
from the pull down menu
where it says regions and
US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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This
forecast
analysis covers far southern
Illinois, southeast
Missouri,
southwest Indiana,
western Kentucky, and
northwest
Tennessee
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HEADLINES: Hello everyone! I am back from my trip and able to update the blog a bit more. We are solidly in a northwest flow pattern - this is a BIG change from June and July. Northwest flow keeps us in slightly cooler temperatures and periodic rain chances. This is good news. It isn't a perfect pattern and temperatures can still rise into the 90s - but it does beat the 100 degree readings.
The northwest flow pattern should last all week and perhaps even into next week! More great news.
This is what the northwest flow pattern looks like on the 500 mb maps from wright-weather.com
You can see the jet stream flows from the northwest into our region - thus it is called a NW flow! Typically ripples of energy move through the NW flow - this helps spark showers and thunderstorms from time to time. I also call it "riding the heat ridge" - the heat ridge can be noted well to our southwest (this is where the most intense heat resides)
Click image for real size view
This first map is for Friday the 10th - the second map is for August 15th - we will be in a northwest flow for awhile.
We will have a chance for thunderstorms on Sunday - as a cold front makes it through our region. Some of the storms could be severe - remember a severe storms means at least 58 mph wind gusts and/or hail to the size of quarters. The tornado threat appears low. Thunderstorms can produce frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
Monday through Wednesday will be dry and not as hot. Temperatures will mostly be in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Humidity levels won't be unbearable.
Another cold front will arrive around Thursday or Friday - this front could spark another chance for showers and heavy thunderstorms. I will need to fine tune this part of the forecast as we move further into the week.
Let's take a look at some updated graphics - first the high temperature forecasts for the coming week. Note the HEAT RIDGE has moved to the west - as forecasted. That means the 100 degree readings will stay to our west. Bad for them but good news for our region.
First image is Sunday - then Monday - so on
Let's take a look at some updated drought maps - unfortunately the drought continues to spread across the United States. This is a serious situation for farmers and the world food supply. A lot of problems will be brought about because of this drought. The drought also encompasses other parts of the world.
Click this image for a larger view - this is the latest drought forecast map. The area in dark red is where the drought is forecast to persist or even intensify.
Here is the official Drought Monitor map - widespread and significant drought across much of the United States.
These maps are zoomed into our region - you can see the we are among some of the most intense areas of drought in the United States.
Some additional maps - remember you can view all of these drought maps by clicking here
We know it has been hot in our region - but check out Oklahoma. This map shows how many days it has been 100 degrees or above. An amazing number - comparable to the great dust bowl years of the 1930s. Thanks goes to Jeff Masters for posting this image.
I will be tracking a couple of tropical systems over the coming days (keep in mind that I am posting these maps on Saturday evening) - updated maps can be viewed here
The first system is named Ernesto - this system will likely move into Mexico. I will keep an eye on it.
The second system is named Florence - it is WELL out in the Atlantic Ocean
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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HEADLINES: Hello everyone! I am back from my trip and able to update the blog a bit more. We are solidly in a northwest flow pattern - this is a BIG change from June and July. Northwest flow keeps us in slightly cooler temperatures and periodic rain chances. This is good news. It isn't a perfect pattern and temperatures can still rise into the 90s - but it does beat the 100 degree readings.
The northwest flow pattern should last all week and perhaps even into next week! More great news.
This is what the northwest flow pattern looks like on the 500 mb maps from wright-weather.com
You can see the jet stream flows from the northwest into our region - thus it is called a NW flow! Typically ripples of energy move through the NW flow - this helps spark showers and thunderstorms from time to time. I also call it "riding the heat ridge" - the heat ridge can be noted well to our southwest (this is where the most intense heat resides)
Click image for real size view
This first map is for Friday the 10th - the second map is for August 15th - we will be in a northwest flow for awhile.
We will have a chance for thunderstorms on Sunday - as a cold front makes it through our region. Some of the storms could be severe - remember a severe storms means at least 58 mph wind gusts and/or hail to the size of quarters. The tornado threat appears low. Thunderstorms can produce frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
Monday through Wednesday will be dry and not as hot. Temperatures will mostly be in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Humidity levels won't be unbearable.
Another cold front will arrive around Thursday or Friday - this front could spark another chance for showers and heavy thunderstorms. I will need to fine tune this part of the forecast as we move further into the week.
Let's take a look at some updated graphics - first the high temperature forecasts for the coming week. Note the HEAT RIDGE has moved to the west - as forecasted. That means the 100 degree readings will stay to our west. Bad for them but good news for our region.
First image is Sunday - then Monday - so on
Let's take a look at some updated drought maps - unfortunately the drought continues to spread across the United States. This is a serious situation for farmers and the world food supply. A lot of problems will be brought about because of this drought. The drought also encompasses other parts of the world.
Click this image for a larger view - this is the latest drought forecast map. The area in dark red is where the drought is forecast to persist or even intensify.
Here is the official Drought Monitor map - widespread and significant drought across much of the United States.
These maps are zoomed into our region - you can see the we are among some of the most intense areas of drought in the United States.
Some additional maps - remember you can view all of these drought maps by clicking here
I will be tracking a couple of tropical systems over the coming days (keep in mind that I am posting these maps on Saturday evening) - updated maps can be viewed here
The first system is named Ernesto - this system will likely move into Mexico. I will keep an eye on it.
The second system is named Florence - it is WELL out in the Atlantic Ocean
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's
check
out the how much rain is
forecast to fall
over the next 120
hours (5 days). This map gives
you a general
broad brushed idea of
what can be
expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
Remember that thunderstorms often produce locally heavy rainfall amounts. The map below gives you a general idea of precipitation - most of this is for Saturday night (the 4th) into Sunday the 5th
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
Remember that thunderstorms often produce locally heavy rainfall amounts. The map below gives you a general idea of precipitation - most of this is for Saturday night (the 4th) into Sunday the 5th
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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1. We will be in a northwest flow pattern - that means temperatures won't be AS hot and there will be periodic chances for precipitation.
DROUGHT INFORMATION - CLICK HERE
Here are the latest 6-10 day temperature and 8-14 day temperature outlooks - see the date stamps at the top of each image
And here is the latest 6-10 day precipitation and 8-14 day precipitation forecast maps - not good news
And the latest AUGUST forecast maps
Temperature and precipitation
Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here
If you are a weather enthusiast then I recommend listening to WeatherBrains each week! For a more in-depth look at what is happening in meteorology.
DROUGHT INFORMATION - CLICK HERE
Here are the latest 6-10 day temperature and 8-14 day temperature outlooks - see the date stamps at the top of each image
Temperature and precipitation
Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here
If you are a weather enthusiast then I recommend listening to WeatherBrains each week! For a more in-depth look at what is happening in meteorology.
Now is a GREAT
time to buy a NOAA All Hazards
Weather Radio. Better to have one
before storms
strike than to be without one
during an event. I recommend the
Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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