August 24th-28th - 2012 Friday through Tuesday update
I am in summer mode - that means I try to update every other day or every 2-3 days. If the weather is active then I will update the forecast as needed. Check back for updated graphics, as well.
For more frequent updates check visit my weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
Friday: Partly sunny skies and warm conditions - a bit more humid
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0.00"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0.00"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: Southerly winds at 10-15 mph with gusts above 20 mph on area lakes
Precipitation probability - 20%-30% | Rainfall totals: 0.10" - 0.25" locally heavier in isolated thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wind: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph - gusts to 15 mph
Precipitation probability - 20%-30% | Rainfall totals: 0.10" - 0.25" locally heavier in isolated thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is high
Sunday night: Mostly cloudy skies with a chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 60s and lower 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 20%-40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Southerly at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 30%-40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.50"
Monday night: Mostly cloudy skies with a chance for some showers - rumble of thunder.
Near normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.
Wind: Westerly/northwest winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Wind: Northerly at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"
Tuesday night: Mostly clear skies .
Near normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the middle 90s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 86 degrees.Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0.00"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Friday night: A few clouds - mild temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle to upper 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0.00"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Saturday: Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies - warm- windy at times - a few thunderstorms or showers scattered in the area
Above normal temperatures
Highs: in the 90-95 degree range | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 86 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southerly winds at 10-15 mph with gusts above 20 mph on area lakes
Precipitation probability - 20%-30% | Rainfall totals: 0.10" - 0.25" locally heavier in isolated thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Saturday night: Partly cloudy with a few scattered showers and thunderstorms
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the 65-70 degree range | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.
Wind: South winds of 5-10 mph - gusts to 15 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: South winds of 5-10 mph - gusts to 15 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Sunday: Partly sunny during the morning - then increasing clouds. Small chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Near normal temperatures
Highs: mostly in the upper 80s | Normal
highs for this time of the year are around 86 degrees.Near normal temperatures
Wind: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph - gusts to 15 mph
Precipitation probability - 20%-30% | Rainfall totals: 0.10" - 0.25" locally heavier in isolated thunderstorms
Sunday night: Mostly cloudy skies with a chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 60s and lower 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 20%-40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Monday: Mostly cloudy skies with showers and a few thunderstorms scattered in the area
Near normal temperatures
Highs: mostly in the upper 80s | Normal
highs for this time of the year are around 86 degrees.Near normal temperatures
Wind: Southerly at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 30%-40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.50"
Monday night: Mostly cloudy skies with a chance for some showers - rumble of thunder.
Near normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.
Wind: Westerly/northwest winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Tuesday: Partly cloudy skies.
Near normal temperatures
Highs: mostly in the middle to upper 80s | Normal
highs for this time of the year are around 86 degrees.Near normal temperatures
Wind: Northerly at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"
Tuesday night: Mostly clear skies .
Near normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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No major concerns - some lightning will be possible Sunday night and Monday. Anyone with outdoor events should monitor radars. The threat for severe weather appears very low.
Isolated storms are possible on Saturday, as well
I am posting information about the drought on the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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Monitor thunderstorms on Saturday and then Sunday/Monday - lightning will be the main - if not only - concern.
The wild card in the long range forecast will be the eventual track of Isaac - tropical system moving into the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. This system, depending on the eventual track, could impact portions of our region. Stay tuned for updates.
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No significant changes in this forecast package
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here. I also strongly encourage you to FRIEND some of the local media meteorologists - I follow all of them and so should you.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Friday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Isolated
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Saturday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Isolated
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Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Small chance for thunder
Sunday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes perhaps a few thunderstorms late
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Small chance for thunder
Sunday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes perhaps a few thunderstorms late
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Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes a few lightning bolts possible
Monday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Monday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes a few lightning bolts possible
Monday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
or
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
Monday - No
Tuesday - No
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
Monday - No
Tuesday - No
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The
links above are interactive and
you can move
around the United States by
simply clicking on the
national map - or
from the pull down menu
where it says regions and
US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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This
forecast
analysis covers far southern
Illinois, southeast
Missouri,
southwest Indiana,
western Kentucky, and
northwest
Tennessee
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HEADLINES: The big story over the coming days will likely be Isaac - where will Isaac end up tracking? That is the million dollar question. Model solutions run all the way from Florida to Texas. Those with interest or travel plans to the coastline should monitor updated forecasts on this tropical system.
There is some chance of Isaac impacting our local area - Future changes in the track of Isaac will be an important part of next weeks forecast. For now we will just keep an eye on him. You can track Isaac by clicking here. Path forecast - click here.
A few thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday afternoon and evening.
A cold front will approach our region on Sunday night and Monday. Moisture will be on the increase ahead of this next system. That means it will feel a bit more humid over the coming days as dew points will be on the rise. Temperatures on Friday into Sunday will be warm - mostly in the 90s (a bit above normal for this time of the year).
This cold front will be the focus for a few showers and thunderstorms - first to our west on Saturday/Sunday and then eventually spreading into our local counties by Sunday night into Monday.
It appears the best chance of precipitation will be late on Sunday night into Monday - across our local counties (early the further west you go). Rainfall totals in the 0.25"-0.50" range can be expected in some of our counties. Once again - as is usually the case in August - not everyone will experience rain.
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears very low with this next cold front. Wind fields are weak (typical for August).
Drought conditions continue to plague our region - there has been little improvement over the past month. We have picked up some rainfall - but not enough. We need a lot of rain to bring us back to normal conditions.
Here are the normal high and low temperature maps for this time of the year - we are seeing them slowly fall as we move towards September. Normal highs are in the 80s and normal lows are in the 60s.
We have a TON of new weather maps on
the Weather
Observatory
web-site - these include
temperatures, wind speed,
dew points, heat
index,
barometric
pressure, predicted
rainfall,
climate forecast, medium
and long
range maps,
forecasts and more! Click here
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HEADLINES: The big story over the coming days will likely be Isaac - where will Isaac end up tracking? That is the million dollar question. Model solutions run all the way from Florida to Texas. Those with interest or travel plans to the coastline should monitor updated forecasts on this tropical system.
There is some chance of Isaac impacting our local area - Future changes in the track of Isaac will be an important part of next weeks forecast. For now we will just keep an eye on him. You can track Isaac by clicking here. Path forecast - click here.
A few thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday afternoon and evening.
A cold front will approach our region on Sunday night and Monday. Moisture will be on the increase ahead of this next system. That means it will feel a bit more humid over the coming days as dew points will be on the rise. Temperatures on Friday into Sunday will be warm - mostly in the 90s (a bit above normal for this time of the year).
This cold front will be the focus for a few showers and thunderstorms - first to our west on Saturday/Sunday and then eventually spreading into our local counties by Sunday night into Monday.
It appears the best chance of precipitation will be late on Sunday night into Monday - across our local counties (early the further west you go). Rainfall totals in the 0.25"-0.50" range can be expected in some of our counties. Once again - as is usually the case in August - not everyone will experience rain.
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears very low with this next cold front. Wind fields are weak (typical for August).
Drought conditions continue to plague our region - there has been little improvement over the past month. We have picked up some rainfall - but not enough. We need a lot of rain to bring us back to normal conditions.
Here are the normal high and low temperature maps for this time of the year - we are seeing them slowly fall as we move towards September. Normal highs are in the 80s and normal lows are in the 60s.
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's
check
out the how much rain is
forecast to fall
over the next 120
hours. This map gives
you a general
broad brushed idea of
what can be
expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
Remember that thunderstorms often produce locally heavy rainfall amounts. The map below gives you a general idea of precipitation
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
Remember that thunderstorms often produce locally heavy rainfall amounts. The map below gives you a general idea of precipitation
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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1. We will need to track Isaac over the coming week.
To track Isaac - click here
Here is the latest six to ten day temperature outlook. Temperatures should average mostly above normal - SOME of this will depend on the eventual track of Isaac. That is the wild card in the forecast. Precipitation should be near to below normal over the coming 6-10 day period. Again - that will depend on the track of Isaac, as well.
DROUGHT INFORMATION - CLICK HERE
Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here
If you are a weather enthusiast then I recommend listening to WeatherBrains each week! For a more in-depth look at what is happening in meteorology.
To track Isaac - click here
Here is the latest six to ten day temperature outlook. Temperatures should average mostly above normal - SOME of this will depend on the eventual track of Isaac. That is the wild card in the forecast. Precipitation should be near to below normal over the coming 6-10 day period. Again - that will depend on the track of Isaac, as well.
DROUGHT INFORMATION - CLICK HERE
Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here
If you are a weather enthusiast then I recommend listening to WeatherBrains each week! For a more in-depth look at what is happening in meteorology.
Now is a GREAT
time to buy a NOAA All Hazards
Weather Radio. Better to have one
before storms
strike than to be without one
during an event. I recommend the
Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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