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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here.
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts...
Remainder of tonight - Thursday night: Partly cloudy and warm. A stray thunderstorm possible. Above normal temperatures. Lows: in the 70-73 degree range | Wind: Northeast winds at 5 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees. Precipitation probability - 10%
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Friday: Partly cloudy with a few thunderstorms possible. Locally heavy downpours and gusty winds near storms. Near normal temperatures.
Highs: in the 88-93 degree range. | Heat index: Values - 97-105 degrees | Wind: Variable winds at 10 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 89 degrees. Precipitation probability - 70% Heat safety advice and information - click here
Friday night: A few clouds. Thunderstorms possible. Warm. Above normal temperatures.
Lows: around 73-76 degrees | Wind: Variable winds at 5-10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees. Precipitation probability - 40%
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Saturday: On and off clouds. Thunderstorms likely. Near normal to above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 87-92 degrees | Heat index: around 98-105 degrees | Wind: Winds becoming southerly at 5-15 mph - gusts to 25 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 89 degrees. Precipitation probability - 70%Heat safety advice and information - click here
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Saturday night: Partly cloudy and mild. A few thunderstorms possible. Above normal temperatures.
Lows: around 74 degrees | Wind: South winds at 10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees. Precipitation probability - 40%-
Sunday: Partly cloudy and hot. Scattered thunderstorms possible. Warm. Above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 90-95 degrees | Heat index: In the 100-108 degree range (depending on the amount of clouds) | Wind: Southwest winds at 10-20 mph - Normal highs for this time of the year are around 89 degrees. Precipitation probability - 40%Heat safety advice and information - click here
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Sunday night: Partly cloudy and mild - a few thunderstorms possible. Above normal temperatures.
Lows: around 72 degrees | Wind: Southwest winds at 10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 69 degrees. Precipitation probability - 30%.
Monday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Near normal temperatures.
Highs: around 85-90 degrees | Heat index: In the 95-98 degree range | Wind: Westerly winds at 5-15 mph - Normal highs for this time of the year are around 89 degrees. Precipitation probability - 80%-
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No big changes to the forecast. Typical summer pattern. We should be thankful that the core of the drought is not over our region. Areas to our south and west are not as fortunate. Tweaked temperatures a bit - there will be a front near our region and this will cause temperatures to be a bit lower over our northern counties and warmer over our southern counties. I split the difference in the updated numbers.
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Small disturbances in the atmosphere could produce a few thunderstorms from time to time right on through Monday..
Heat safety advice and information - click here .
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for the next 48 hours...
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.or
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Friday: A few scattered thunderstorms. Thunderstorms that do occur this time of the year can produce cloud to ground lightning, heavy rain in short periods of time, and gusty winds.
Friday: A few scattered thunderstorms. Thunderstorms that do occur this time of the year can produce cloud to ground lightning, heavy rain in short periods of time, and gusty winds.
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Friday night: A few scattered thunderstorms. Thunderstorms that do occur this time of the year can produce cloud to ground lightning, heavy rain in short periods of time, and gusty winds.
.Saturday: A few scattered thunderstorms. Thunderstorms that do occur this time of the year can produce cloud to ground lightning, heavy rain in short periods of time, and gusty winds.
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Saturday night: A few scattered thunderstorms. Thunderstorms that do occur this time of the year can produce cloud to ground lightning, heavy rain in short periods of time, and gusty winds.
.Sunday: A few severe thunderstorms possible. Thunderstorms that do occur this time of the year can produce cloud to ground lightning, heavy rain in short periods of time, and gusty winds.
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Sunday night: A few severe thunderstorms possible. Thunderstorms that do occur this time of the year can produce cloud to ground lightning, heavy rain in short periods of time, and gusty winds.
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Monday: A few severe thunderstorms possible. Thunderstorms that do occur this time of the year can produce cloud to ground lightning, heavy rain in short periods of time, and gusty winds.
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Here are the graphics for the coming days. Remember the orange area represents the slight risk (that is what the Storm Prediction Center calls it - not my favorite choice of wording) area for severe thunderstorms. The orange area means that severe thunderstorms will be possible but will most likely not produce widespread severe weather. The yellow area represents that areas where some thunderstorms will likely occur - but will remain, for the most part, below severe limits. A severe storm is one that produces winds of at least 58 mph and quarter size hail or larger. And/or tornadoes.
You can learn more about lightning safety by clicking here.
Here are the graphics for the coming days. Remember the orange area represents the slight risk (that is what the Storm Prediction Center calls it - not my favorite choice of wording) area for severe thunderstorms. The orange area means that severe thunderstorms will be possible but will most likely not produce widespread severe weather. The yellow area represents that areas where some thunderstorms will likely occur - but will remain, for the most part, below severe limits. A severe storm is one that produces winds of at least 58 mph and quarter size hail or larger. And/or tornadoes.
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You can view the most up to date graphics - clicking here.
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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The map you see below can be viewed by clicking on the watch and warnings map links above. The maps are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States - again this map is a sample map. To view the actual interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: Summer continues but the countdown to meteorological fall (September through November) has begun! It won't be much longer and we will start to talk about cooler nights and cooler days.
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For now, though, we will have to deal with warm temperatures and a few scattered thunderstorms over the coming days. Any storms that do form this time of the year can produce locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds. I can't rule out a few severe thunderstorm warnings (as we have seen over the past week). .
Longer range indicates near normal to above normal temperatures. Precipitation forecast is for near normal to perhaps slightly above normal amounts. The biggest problem with scattered thunderstorms is that some counties pick up 1-2" of rain while others end up with dry pavement. .
I updated the drought maps (below). You can see that the drought continues to slowly creep back into our area. This is not all that unexpected. Drought tends to creep. This one is no different. Thankfully we are not in the core of the extreme drought..
Let's take a look back at the month of July - precipitation was normal to above normal - which was what was forecasted. What busted was the temperature forecast - I thought temperatures would end up normal to below normal. I could not have been more wrong. Temperatures were well above normal. Here is the map..
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Heat safety advice and information - click here
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Significant to major flooding is likely to continue across the Missouri Valley in the coming weeks - latest river information - click here..
To follow the flood information along the Missouri River - click here for a special Facebook page that has been made for those concerned.
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You can read more about the summer flood threat by clicking HERE
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To view our interactive river map - click here. The areas in purple and red are experiencing significant flooding issues.
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River Forecast Stages - Click Here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 72 hours. Keep in mind that during the summer months heavy thunderstorms can produce excessive amounts of rain in a short period of time. This map is to give you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Some areas during the summer months will pick up very little precipitation while neighboring areas receive quite a bit. Thus is the nature of thunderstorms and the summer pattern.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour maps then click here.
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I have added thunderstorm probabilities to the web-site - you can click hour by hour and see where the best chances for thunderstorms will exist. Here is the link - you can also choose your own region by clicking on a state.
ALSO NOW AVAILABLE - Six hour probability precipitation maps.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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Remember you can now view all of the temperature graphics (that you see below) - and more - by clicking here
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Below image - Low temperatures for Friday morning
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Below image - High temperatures for Friday afternoon.
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Below image - Low temperatures for Saturday morning.
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Below image - Low temperatures for Sunday morning
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Let's also take a look (the map below) at the expected heat index for tomorrow afternoon. You can view this map for other days by clicking here. Remember - the heat index is what the temperature feels like to your body when the temperature and humidity are combined. Heat index calculator can be viewed by clicking here.
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The first map is for Friday and then Saturday through Monday
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Also the UV forecast for those interested - click here
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Heat safety advice and information - click here
How much above or below normal will high temperatures be tomorrow?
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The map below shows you the departure from normal highs (normal highs are around 82-85 degrees). This gives you a general idea of the type of weather pattern we are in. Warmer than normal or cooler than normal?
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For example if the normal high is 80 degrees and the actual high is 90 degrees then we would be 10 degrees above normal. You can find this map on the web-site, as well - click here.
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First map is for Friday and then the Saturday through Monday maps. Once again we find ourselves in normal to above normal temperatures. The story of this entire summer - at least thus far.
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These are the record highs and lows for August 1st through August 3rd, 2011. The last map is the past weeks worth of records - both record highs and low. As you can see there have been PLENTY of record high temperatures broken. More record high temperatures than low temperatures. It has been a warm summer for many locations. The purple dots are record low temperatures and the red dots are record high temperatures. To view the most up to date maps - with details on each record high and low - click here.
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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Our NEW tropical maps are now ready on the Weather Observatory web-site. Please check them out!
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We are watching what is left of Tropical Storm Emily. This system could impact parts of Florida and the southeast United States over the coming week. Interests in the Caribbean should pay attention to future forecast tracks. .
To track the LATEST on Emily click here for our new tropical graphics Keep in mind that the graphics below are from Thursday afternoon and Emily may have weakened since these graphics were posted.
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You can view satellite images of the tropics by clicking here - we have a variety of satellite images available on the Weather Observatory web-site.
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Latest Official National Hurricane Center Tropical Outlook - click here.
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You can see from the maps (over the last weeks worth of posting) that a large chunk of real estate to our south and west is experiencing drought conditions. You can view these maps by clicking here, as well.
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Here is the Crop Moisture Index map. The drought is starting to expand. This has been a concern all summer. Portions of our region have experienced heavy rainfall over the last 2 weeks. Although not everyone picked up rainfall. Those areas that missed the storms are dry. A serious drought continues over much of Texas and Oklahoma..
You can view these and more drought maps by clicking here.
You can learn more about the current drought by visiting this Climate Prediction Center website - click here.
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You can now view the 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecast maps for temperature and precipitation! Maps are available by clicking here.
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You can see from these maps that above normal temperatures are forecast to continue for the medium range and long range. Seems like a broken record.
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The orange and red areas on the map indicate where temperatures are expected to be above normal - this is a probability chart - the deeper the orange and red the better chance for above normal temperatures. .
The third map is the precipitation outlook. .
1. No big changes in the medium and long range. Some hints of moderation in temperatures as the heat dome shifts a bit to the south and west. This would mean more seasonable temperatures for our region. Remember that normal highs for this time of the year are still around 90 degrees. We will have to wait a few more weeks to start watching those normal highs fall back into the 80s.
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-sitehttp://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page and you can follow along - also please pass the link along to your friends.
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Don't forget that our friends at the Paducah, Kentucky US National Weather Service Office now has a Facebook page, as well! Click here and then hit LIKE at the top of their page.
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management now has a Facebook page? This is a great way to stay in touch with local officials during and before a natural disaster. Here is their page - hit LIKE at the top of the button.
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You can also find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson.
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson---
"We don't control the weather - we just predict it"
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McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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I send out emails 2-4 days in advance of widespread severe weather episodes. Basically this is a "heads up" email. If you would like to subscribe then click here.
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