August 19, 2010: Heat Continues - Yesterday's Rainfall Totals

August 19, 2010

I like to say the phrase "feast or famine" - I say it a lot.  For good reason.  It seems like we can't find a happy middle ground when it comes to weather.  But, that isn't unusual in itself - averages come from extremes.  That is how it has always been and always will be.

The official drought monitor maps have been released this morning.  The drought is spreading and will likely worsen in the coming weeks.  Here is the latest map.

Yesterday's rainfall was no different.  I recorded 0.00" here at the Weather Observatory.  Not a drop fell.  Most of the rain stayed in Kentucky and Tennessee - which is how it was forecast.  So, the forecast was not too bad.  However, it would have been nice to at least get a little bit of rain further north and west.  It just didn't happen.  The boundary was a bit father south than expected and the tropical moisture was steered further south and east, as well. 

For the entire month of August I have only recorded 0.16" of rainfall.  Extremely dry.

Rainfall totals in Kentucky ranged from just a few sprinkles in Paducah to as much as 6 inches (more in some isolated areas) in south central and southeast Kentucky.  Numerous counties were under flash flood warnings.  Flood warnings were also issued for a large portion of Tennessee.  That is what happens with tropical moisture from an old tropical depression spreads into the Tennessee Valley. 

But, that is yesterday - rain has ended and the next decent shot at rain will arrive on Friday Night and Saturday.  Although the chances are still not overly impressive.  I will keep an eye on the chances and update on later today.  Right now I am not expecting severe weather.

The heat wave is going to build back into our region in the coming days.  We may not return to the extreme levels that we witnessed last week, but we will likely see temperatures return to the middle and upper 90s.  Heat index values will once again approach and exceed 100.  This would mean that the National Weather Service may have to issue heat warnings and advisories, once again.

I am expecting 90+ weather to continue through most of next week.  We could see a day or two with temperatures a bit lower - but overall expect warm/hot temperatures to continue.  There are some hints of cooler weather towards the middle/end of next week.  Will tweak forecast if need be.  We can hope!

Your SEVEN day forecast can be viewed here.  For latest radar and current conditions please visit the Weather Observatory web-site.

Paducah recorded its 31st day above 90 degrees yesterday.  This was a new record.  If Paducah can reach 90 degrees or above for 38 days in a row then that will also be a new record.  Not the kind of records you want to be setting.

The hurricane season is about to become more active.  We have been saying that for about a week now - I thought perhaps after August 10th we would really see activity increase.  I should have held out a bit longer.  However, with that said, I expect several tropical storms and hurricanes over the coming medium and long range time period.  That would be the next 15-20 days.  There is an increased risk for the eastern half of the United States.  A pattern that often leads to east coast hurricanes is developing.

Long range forecast for our region - no change from my previous thoughts.  Normal to above normal temperatures for the rest of the month.

Currently winter forecasts are pointing to above normal temperatures and perhaps wetter than normal.  Long way to go.  So - we will watch the trends over the coming weeks and months.

- Beau Dodson

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