August 15, 2010: Hot again today - then some relief. Watching tropics.

August 15, 2010

For those fortunate enough to have received rainfall on Saturday or earlier this morning, you should be thankful.  Many of us did not receive much in the way of meaningful rainfall.  So - the drought continues across our region.

Portions of western Kentucky and western Tennessee did receive some much needed rainfall - some areas had strong winds and heavy downpours.  Some wind damage was reported in Graves County.  Other areas of Kentucky also had severe thunderstorms with high winds.  There were even a few tornado warnings to the east of our local forecast area.

My rainfall here for the month has only been a scant 0.16".  It has been nearly sixty days since I have recorded 1" or more of rainfall in a 24 hour period.  It is extremely dry.

The heat wave will continue today.  Temperatures will be in the middle to upper 90s over most counties.  Heat index values will be over 100 degrees.  All heat advisories well expire tonight - I do not expect advisories for our region tomorrow - this is the first time in a number of days that we will be advisory free.

Your six day forecast can be viewed here.

If Paducah does reach 91 degrees then they will tie their record number of days of 91 or above.  If they reach 91 degrees on Monday then they will break their old record.  In order to break the record of 90 OR above then they would have to reach 38 days in a row - which was set back in 1993.  Which is doubtful to occur.

The much anticipated cold front will push through our region during the next 24 hours.  This will help lower temperatures and humidity levels - a bit.  Expect temperatures to still approach or exceed 90 degrees in the coming days.  However, the humidity levels will be lower.  This means that the excessive heat warnings will expire as of 7 pm tonight.  We could still see some heat advisories.  Check your local National Weather Service Office for the latest watches and warnings.

A few scattered showers and storms will be possible again today in our region.   The next chance of showers and storms will arrive on Tuesday night and Wednesday.  A bit of energy will push in from Kansas.  This could provide enough lift to spark an area of storms over Missouri.  The storms would then push east/southeast.  Locally heavy rain will be possible across portions of Missouri and Illinois.  It is a bit early to determine the track of this rain producer.  Most likely the heaviest rains would miss our local counties - however, it will need to be watched.

The other area of interest currently resides over Alabama and Mississippi.  The remnants of tropical depression five is causing showers and heavy thunderstorms over the Gulf of Mexico and adjacent areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, and Georgia. 

This area of low pressure will push southward over the coming days - slowly.  If this system can move back over the water, which I believe it will, then it will likely strengthen and could become a depression or a tropical storm once again.  The system would then push westward.  Eventually it is possible - low chance - that the system could push moisture back into our region.  It appears more likely that most of the moisture would stay to our south and southwest.  However, it is well worth watching - especially with our ongoing drought.

The track and intensity of this system is far from certain.  However, as I have talked above over the last few days, it is possible that we could see this tropical depression "return to life" and cause concern for those in its path.  I will be monitoring and updating the forecast accordingly.

Otherwise - the rest of the week is expected to be warm.  Temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s will likely be the rule.  There are hints that a few days could be warmer.  However, for now we will stick with the above and adjust if necessary.

The remainder of August should be average to a bit above average in the temperature department.  We are not through with the warm temperatures.

Tropics -

The tropics continue to frustrate forecasters who have predicted a near record season.  Although there have been a few named storms it does seem that the development of tropical storms and hurricanes is off to a slower start than first expected.  There are plenty of reasons, though, to continue to believe that we will see quite a few tropical storms and hurricanes during the upcoming 2-3 month period. 

- Beau Dodson

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