September 24th-25th: Unsettled weather this week

September 24th-25th

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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...

Tonight (Sunday night):  Mostly clear and cold.  Frost likely in some areas.
Below normal temperatures
Highs: in the 33-40 degree range  |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 57 degrees.
Wind: North winds at 5 mph to calm
Precipitation probability - 0%  Rainfall totals:
  0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high

Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here 

Monday:  Cold start to the morning - some frost possible - then mostly sunny skies during the morning - pleasant by late morning.  An increase of clouds during the afternoon hours

Below normal temperatures
Highs: in the middle 70s  |  Normal highs for this time of the year are around 78 degrees.
Wind: South winds 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10%  | Rainfall totals:
  0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high

Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here 
 
Monday night:  Partly cloudy skies - a chance for showers and thunderstorms.  Best chance of showers and storms will be over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois
Below normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 50s |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 57 degrees.
Wind: South winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 40%-60%  | Rainfall totals: 0.25" 

Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Tuesday: Mostly cloudy skies with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Best chance of showers and storms will be over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois
Near normal temperatures
Highs:  in the lower to middle 80s  | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 78 degrees.
Wind: Southwest winds at 10-20 mph - gusty at times
Precipitation probability - 40% |  Rainfall totals:  0.25" 

Confidence in this forecast is high
 
Tuesday night:  Mostly cloudy with a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms.  Best chance of showers and storms will be over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the 58-64 degree range  |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 57 degrees.
Wind:  South winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% |  Rainfall totals: 0.25"

Confidence in this forecast is high 

Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here




This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee

HEADLINES:  A cold start to the work week.  Overnight lows on Monday morning will be in the 30s across the region.  Frost will be possible.


Unsettled weather will be on tap for Monday night into Wednesday - it appears the best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be over southeast Missouri into southern Illinois and southern Indiana.  Southern half of the region will have at least chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms during the same time frame - but the most widespread activity is likely to be from Poplar Bluff to Evansville - then northward.  

A few storms could become severe on Tuesday/Tuesday evening with hail and gusty winds.  Monitor for updates.

Note here on the rainfall forecast the position of the higher rain totals.  That is the area with the best chances of showers and thunderstorms.


Rainfall totals from Monday night into Wednesday will be in the 0.25"-0.75" range - again the heaviest totals over our northern counties vs southern counties.

Temperatures this week will start out in the 70s on Monday and rise into the 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Severe weather threat appears low this week - will monitor Tuesday for a chance of a few severe storms.



No major concerns - a few thunderstorms on Monday night into Wednesday.  Severe weather risk appears low - perhaps an isolated severe storm on Tuesday and Tuesday night.  Monitor updates.



If you have outdoor plans on Monday night through Wednesday then monitor radars.  Some lightning will be possible.  Can't rule out a few storms producing hail and gusty winds on Tuesday.

 

No wild cards in this forecast package 
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No major changes since the last update

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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more!  Click here 

 
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather

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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado.   


Monday: 
Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Monday: 
Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  No


Monday night:   Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Monday night: 
Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  Isolated thunderstorms possible


Tuesday:  The risk for severe weather appears low - can't completely rule out a severe thunderstorms over parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois along a warm front - right now the threat appears minimal.  Not sure about severe storms into western KY - but monitor updates in the event things shift further south.  No snow or ice.
Tuesday:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Tuesday night : 
Isolated severe storms possible.  No snow or ice.
Tuesday night:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? A few thunderstorms possible

For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
or 
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here  

To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here

 

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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?

 
Monday - No
Tuesday - Possible
Tuesday night - Possible
Wednesday - Low chance

To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here  Alternative link - click here
 
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To view all watches and warnings in IL -  Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here

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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning  map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here


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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site.  For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.



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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site !
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS ---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars?  I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 120 hours.  This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected.  Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.



 
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time.  Those maps can be viewed here.  

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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in 
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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1.  Chances for showers and thunderstorms will linger into at least Thursday.



Latest drought information:
DROUGHT INFORMATION - CLICK HERE 


Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here


If you are a weather enthusiast then I recommend listening to WeatherBrains each week!  For a more in-depth look at what is happening in meteorology.





Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio.  Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event.  I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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