Your Hometown Weather: September 13th-14th: A bit unsettled Friday then cooler again

September 13th-14th

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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...

Thursday: Partly cloudy skies

Near normal temperatures

Highs: in the middle 80s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 83 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here

Thursday night: Partly cloudy skies - pleasant temperatures - small chance for a light shower

Near normal temperatures

Lows: in the lower to middle 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 61 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0" to a trace
Confidence in this forecast is very high

Friday: Increasing clouds - a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. Not quite as warm.
Near normal to below normal temperatures

Highs: in the upper 70s to lower 80s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 83 degrees.
Wind: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph - becoming west at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is high

Friday night: Partly cloudy with a few evening showers possible - maybe a thunderstorm.
Below normal temperatures

Lows: in the 52-56 range | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 61 degrees.
Wind: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is high

Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here

This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee

HEADLINES: Short update. A cold front will move into the region on Friday. This front will bring some clouds and scattered showers and perhaps even a rumble of thunder - not overly impressed with rain chances. Unlike last week - severe weather is not anticipated with this storm system.

Cooler weather will prevail for the weekend with a few clouds. Almost a fall like pattern.

Small chance for lightning on Friday as a front pushes through with some showers and perhaps thunderstorms. Main concern would be outdoor events. Not overly impressed with this system.

Monitor radars if you have sporting events on Friday afternoon/evening. Could be a few thunderstorms - lightning being the only concern. Severe weather is not in the forecast.

No wild cards in this update
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No major changes since the last update

Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here

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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado.

Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No

Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No

Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Isolated thunderstorm not out of the question
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Friday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Isolated

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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.

Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here

To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here

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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?

Thursday - No
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No

To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here

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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here

The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.

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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site !
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS ---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.

Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information

Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 72 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.

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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.

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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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1. A bit unsettled as we move into next week - some small shower chances perhaps Sunday night and Monday. There are hints of some thunderstorms on Monday - still a bit too far out to make a call - not sure about moisture return and instability.

I will need to update that part of the forecast. Cooler weather will continue! Fallish weather.

Signals for cooler weather are on the board - just how cool is the question. Perhaps an early frost in parts of the Missouri and Ohio Valleys in the coming weeks? How far south will be the question

Here is what the GFS model is showing for next week - this is for next Wednesday morning (one models opinion). We will monitor it and see how things unfold.

GFS tends to trend on the cool side vs the warm side. Click image for full size view

With that said - the GFS Ensembles are also cold for next week - the ensembles are basically the same model but tweaked a bit different each run. Gives us a better idea of what will happen.

Here is the anomalies on the GFS - how much below normal - towards the middle of next week. Well below normal!

Click image for the full size view - this is for next Wednesday morning

Here is the 6-10 and 8-14 day temperature outlook - a bit on the cool side! Probabilities favor cooler than normal.

Latest drought information:
DROUGHT INFORMATION - CLICK HERE

Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here

If you are a weather enthusiast then I recommend listening to WeatherBrains each week! For a more in-depth look at what is happening in meteorology.

Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!

Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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