Please visit the website for your weather needs :)
Weather Observatory Web-Site
October 27th - heading east to photograph Sandy
There will not be full updates - I am heading east to photograph Sandy - the snow part of the system.
Please visit the website for your weather needs :)
Weather Observatory Web-Site
Please visit the website for your weather needs :)
Weather Observatory Web-Site
October 26th-27th: Much colder air arrives Friday
October 26th-27th
For more frequent updates visit my weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
This blog is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
Thursday night: Becoming cloudy with a chance for showers and thunderstorms before midnight and then showers and thunderstorms likely after midnight - lows in the upper 40s. Southwest winds becoming northwest at 10-15 mph.
Friday: Raw - colder - windy - a period or two of rain showers - rain.
Highs: mainly in the 40s
Wind: Northwest/north winds 10-25 mph and gusty
Precipitation probability - 60%-80% | Rainfall totals: 0.30-0.60"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
Wind: North winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: Northerly winds at 10-20 mph - gusty
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Gusty winds and rain on Friday will make it feel raw outside. Otherwise - some frost possible Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday morning.
If you have sensitive plants outside then monitor overnight low forecasts in the coming days.
No wild cards in this forecast package
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
.
----
The forecast for severe or extreme weather
.
The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
.
Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits A rumble of thunder possible
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits? No
Sunday : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits? No
1. The big story in the extended range will be the looming threat of a major storm along the East Coast of the United States.
For our region we will experience below normal temperatures into the middle of next week. No severe weather is expected in our local counties through next Tuesday. I will be monitoring the potential for some severe weather as we move into the first week or two of November. Long way off - monitor updates.
This is what the GFS is showing for November 5th and 6th - LONG way off but the signals have been on the maps for awhile. This could bring showers and thunderstorms into our region. I will be keeping an eye on this storm system.
Click image for real size view - image from wright-weather.com
Latest drought information:
DROUGHT INFORMATION - CLICK HERE
Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here
If you are a weather enthusiast then I recommend listening to WeatherBrains each week! For a more in-depth look at what is happening in meteorology.
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
.
.
Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
.
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
.
Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
.
.
For more frequent updates visit my weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
This blog is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
.
Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
Thursday night: Becoming cloudy with a chance for showers and thunderstorms before midnight and then showers and thunderstorms likely after midnight - lows in the upper 40s. Southwest winds becoming northwest at 10-15 mph.
Friday: Raw - colder - windy - a period or two of rain showers - rain.
Highs: mainly in the 40s
Wind: Northwest/north winds 10-25 mph and gusty
Precipitation probability - 60%-80% | Rainfall totals: 0.30-0.60"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
Friday night: Some clouds early with a slight chance for showers over our eastern counties. Otherwise becoming mostly clear and colder
Lows: in the middle to upper 30s Wind: North winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
.
Saturday: Partly sunny and colder.
Highs: in the middle 50s Wind: Northerly winds at 10-20 mph - gusty
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Saturday night: Colder with a chance for frost - clear sky conditions
Lows: in the 28-35 degree range
Wind: North winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Sunday will be dry and cool - highs in the 50s
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
This
forecast
analysis covers far southern
Illinois, southeast
Missouri,
southwest Indiana,
western Kentucky, and
northwest
Tennessee
HEADLINES: Our warm weather will soon come to an end. A strong cold front is approaching our region from the west. This front will move into our area by Thursday night and Friday morning. As it moves into the region it will spark showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Severe weather is not anticipated.
Rain showers will push through mainly Friday morning - afternoon hours may bring lingering right or light rain - gusty winds.
Let's take a look at temperatures ahead of and behind the front - this map is from Thursday morning. Can you find the cold front? :)
This is what the weather map looked like on Thursday afternoon and evening - check out the snow on the back side of the storm.
The cold front will sweep through the area early on Friday morning. Light rain will continue well behind the front. Rainfall amounts should be in the 0.30"-0.60" range. It will be a cold/raw/windy day on Friday - not very nice for any outdoor events.
Temperatures will be falling on Thursday night into Friday morning - temperatures will never recover on Friday. Clouds and rain showers - cold northerly winds - all will combine to keep temperatures in the 50s.
By Friday night the cold front will be to our east and showers will come to an end. Right now it appears the majority of the showers should be to our east by sunset. There is a chance a few showers may linger over our eastern counties into the early evening hours. Most of us will be dry, however, by dusk.
Temperatures on Friday into early next week will be below normal.
Bottom line - it is going to turn colder - clouds and some rain on Friday. Frost will be possible on Sunday morning - Monday morning - Tuesday morning. A bit unsure about Wednesday morning. We will also have to watch and see just how large the east coast storm ends up being. This will have an impact on our temperatures, as well.
Winds on Friday will be gusty out of the northwest and north - speeds in the 10-20 mph will be common - higher gusts possible.
Winds on Saturday will also be gusty - boaters use caution on both Friday and Saturday.
Winds may continue to be gusty into next week as the big storm winds up to our east.
You can see from these high temperature maps how much temperatures will fall - the first map is Thursday afternoon and the second map is Saturday. Nice drop off in temperatures.
And here is the map for Saturday's high temperatures
Lows on Tuesday and Wednesday morning might be colder than official forecasts - this is because of the big storm in the east pulling down colder air. The GFS is showing hints of this - freeze for our region? Possible.
First images would be for Tuesday morning and second image would be for Wednesday morning (low temperatures)
Click image for real size view - images from www.wright-weather.com
Wednesday morning lows - below
Of course the big story for the United States will be where does Sandy head over the coming days. Hurricane Sandy is currently moving northward through the Caribbean and will soon approach the Florida coastline. Sandy should stay just offshore of Florida. High swells, heavy rain, and gusty winds are likely along the Florida Coastline.
As Sandy continues to move north it will start to interact with the storm system that will move through our region on Friday. That means that the system could intensify even further and coast major problems for portions of the Middle Atlantic into New England. Anyone with family or friends in those areas should tell them to closely monitor weather updates over the coming days.
Sandy will not impact our region. The concern is to our east. We may see some windier conditions or cooler temperatures because of the strong northwest flow accompanying the system.
This is what Sandy looked like as it crossed the islands
The above image was from Wednesday afternoon. Let's take a look at Sandy on Thursday morning (early AM hours)
Click image for a LARGER view
This first image is the water vapor view - the second image is an infrared satellite view
Dr. Jeff Masters posted this information concerning Sandy's hit on the islands
Hurricane Sandy hit the southeastern tip of Jamaica near 3:20 pm EDT this afternoon, as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds and a 973 mb pressure. According to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website, Sandy is the thirteenth hurricane to make a direct hit on the island, and the first since Hurricane Gilbert of 1988. Kingston, Jamaica recorded sustained winds of 44 mph and a pressure of 972 mb in the west eyewall of Sandy at 4 pm EDT. The eastern tip of Jamaica will see the strongest winds of the right-front quadrant and the heaviest damage, though. A distorted eye is apparent on visible satellite loops, but Sandy is showing only minor disruption to its inner core structure as a result of hitting Jamaica. According to the Jamaica Observer, "Alligator Pond [in St Elizabeth] was inundated with the high waves that came ashore. We are now getting reports of impacts out in St. Catherine, Portland and St. Thomas as the ground becomes saturated. We are now seeing where light poles are toppling and landslides being reported and roadway being flooded to the point where there is impeded access in east St. Thomas." Heavy rains from Sandy are falling in Haiti. A NOAA forecast based on microwave satellite data predicts 12 inches of rain for the tip of Haiti's southwestern Peninsula, which will likely cause life-threatening flash flooding. Fortunately, much lighter rainfall amounts are predicted for the capital of Port-au-Prince, where 350,000 people still live in the open under tarps in the wake of the January 2010 earthquake. In August, flooding from Hurricane Isaac killed at least 29 people in Haiti.
End of his comments
Here is the GFS model from www.wright-weather.com
Remember that the GFS is just one of many models that meteorologists use to forecast the weather. You can see Sandy moving up the coast and becoming entangled with the trough of low pressure moving through the northeast - this could be a significant event for the coastline area. High winds, major flooding, heavy rain, and even snow in some areas inland. The potential for a damaging event appears to be growing. With that said - questioned remain on the exact track and eventual strength of Sandy and perhaps the merger.
The first image is for Sunday night - then Tuesday night - then Wednesday night - you can see the system TIGHTLY wound up and moving northward
Click images for the real size view - the colors represent heavy rainfall - the deeper colors are the heaviest rain. The lines are isobars. The tighter those isobars are the higher the wind speeds that can be expected.
Then Tuesday night
Then Wednesday night
New data indicates a landfall further south - models will continue to go back and forth with the eventual path and intensity - LONG way to go to monitor this one.
Here is the morning run of the GFS model - see how it has shifted landfall further south
Here are some thoughts from another meteorologist concerning the big storm for the northeast - again still a bit early to make a forecast on eventual landfall - but the statement below gives you some idea of the potential of damage.
With some models now showing Sandy making landfall well to the south of New England,
and possibly meaning less of an impact to New England, something keep in mind, esp
for wind potential...
The Dec 11-12 1992 event...one of the worst Nor'easters on record to impact NEUS/Mid
Atlantic. The storm central pressure got to down 985 mb near the Delmarva and stalled. We
had a 1035 mb high over Quebec and it was bad for wind BOS to DCA. Maps here:
http://www.meteo.psu...1992/us1211.php
http://www.meteo.psu...1992/us1212.php
Now the ECMWF shows a similar depth high to the NE-NW. Its position is further N and
it isn't as strongly nosed down close from the NE like in Dec 92, *but*, do some math here.
What was the absolute pressure difference then?...50 mb. What is will be the absolute pressure
difference coming up...being a bit conservative at 960 mb for Sandy, and the 1035 mb high
the ECMWF shows...75 mb! The high to the N is not as pressing for the Sandy event, but a
25 mb greater difference I would think would make it at least as bad as Dec 92 for wind/storm
surge in New England, given the track stays to the S of Long island. So a Delmarva landfall might
not make much difference. Problem is impact is going to be high regardless so any minimizing
statements (i.e. not the worst case scenario) might not be a good idea right now. You have to
look at it from degrees of bad. Even if it is not the absolute worst case scenario for New England, the
worst case scenario is so bad, that getting a little less than that is still really bad relatively speaking.
So if only a million people are w/o power in in southern New England vs. 1.5 million...see what I mean? When that many people lose power, it is a disaster no matter what.
The infamous Blizzard of 78 in New England had 70-73 mb difference between the high to the N
and the storm center to the S of New England.
Here is my summary of day 1 of the Dec 1992 event from my historical wx files. We got hit hard in SNE obviously as well.
12/11/1992
One of the fiercest "nor'easters" this century in was progress
across the New York City area and the Mid Atlantic region. A
985 millibar low stalled over the Delmarva Peninsula. This
combined with a 1035 millibar high pressure over Quebec set up
an enormous easterly pressure gradient which resulted in winds
exceeding hurricane force in many places and record high tides.
Ambrose Light Station just southeast of New York City recorded
sustained winds of 80 mph with gusts to 93 mph. Wildwood
Crest, New Jersey reported gusts to 90 mph and New Holland,
Pennsylvania measured 82 mph gusts. In Philadelphia,
Pennsylvania, the high winds broke a church steeple which fell
onto and closed the Ben Franklin Bridge to New Jersey. Some of
the worst coastal flooding ever associated with a nor'easter
occurred as tides were pushed 3 to 6 feet above normal,
resulting in widespread damage and beach erosion. LaGuardia
Airport was closed due to flooding. The East River flooded
Manhattan's FDR Drive, stranding dozens of motorists. Flooding
at a Con Edison station shut down New York City's entire subway
system for more than 3 hours. Tremendous snowfalls occurred at
inland locations as the storm was a very slow mover. Piney
Dam, Maryland was buried under 42 inches of snow to set a new
state snowfall record for a single storm. Ogletown, Pennsylvania
measured 36 inches of snow and Mount Storm, West Virginia recorded
32 inches.
End of his comments - you can see there is great concern about coastal flooding and other problems from Sandy.
Back to our region...
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year - see map below
Normal lows for this time of the year
Wind: North winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Sunday will be dry and cool - highs in the 50s
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
HEADLINES: Our warm weather will soon come to an end. A strong cold front is approaching our region from the west. This front will move into our area by Thursday night and Friday morning. As it moves into the region it will spark showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Severe weather is not anticipated.
Rain showers will push through mainly Friday morning - afternoon hours may bring lingering right or light rain - gusty winds.
Let's take a look at temperatures ahead of and behind the front - this map is from Thursday morning. Can you find the cold front? :)
This is what the weather map looked like on Thursday afternoon and evening - check out the snow on the back side of the storm.
The cold front will sweep through the area early on Friday morning. Light rain will continue well behind the front. Rainfall amounts should be in the 0.30"-0.60" range. It will be a cold/raw/windy day on Friday - not very nice for any outdoor events.
Temperatures will be falling on Thursday night into Friday morning - temperatures will never recover on Friday. Clouds and rain showers - cold northerly winds - all will combine to keep temperatures in the 50s.
By Friday night the cold front will be to our east and showers will come to an end. Right now it appears the majority of the showers should be to our east by sunset. There is a chance a few showers may linger over our eastern counties into the early evening hours. Most of us will be dry, however, by dusk.
Temperatures on Friday into early next week will be below normal.
Bottom line - it is going to turn colder - clouds and some rain on Friday. Frost will be possible on Sunday morning - Monday morning - Tuesday morning. A bit unsure about Wednesday morning. We will also have to watch and see just how large the east coast storm ends up being. This will have an impact on our temperatures, as well.
Winds on Friday will be gusty out of the northwest and north - speeds in the 10-20 mph will be common - higher gusts possible.
Winds on Saturday will also be gusty - boaters use caution on both Friday and Saturday.
Winds may continue to be gusty into next week as the big storm winds up to our east.
You can see from these high temperature maps how much temperatures will fall - the first map is Thursday afternoon and the second map is Saturday. Nice drop off in temperatures.
First images would be for Tuesday morning and second image would be for Wednesday morning (low temperatures)
Click image for real size view - images from www.wright-weather.com
Of course the big story for the United States will be where does Sandy head over the coming days. Hurricane Sandy is currently moving northward through the Caribbean and will soon approach the Florida coastline. Sandy should stay just offshore of Florida. High swells, heavy rain, and gusty winds are likely along the Florida Coastline.
As Sandy continues to move north it will start to interact with the storm system that will move through our region on Friday. That means that the system could intensify even further and coast major problems for portions of the Middle Atlantic into New England. Anyone with family or friends in those areas should tell them to closely monitor weather updates over the coming days.
Sandy will not impact our region. The concern is to our east. We may see some windier conditions or cooler temperatures because of the strong northwest flow accompanying the system.
This is what Sandy looked like as it crossed the islands
The above image was from Wednesday afternoon. Let's take a look at Sandy on Thursday morning (early AM hours)
Click image for a LARGER view
This first image is the water vapor view - the second image is an infrared satellite view
Dr. Jeff Masters posted this information concerning Sandy's hit on the islands
Hurricane Sandy hit the southeastern tip of Jamaica near 3:20 pm EDT this afternoon, as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds and a 973 mb pressure. According to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website, Sandy is the thirteenth hurricane to make a direct hit on the island, and the first since Hurricane Gilbert of 1988. Kingston, Jamaica recorded sustained winds of 44 mph and a pressure of 972 mb in the west eyewall of Sandy at 4 pm EDT. The eastern tip of Jamaica will see the strongest winds of the right-front quadrant and the heaviest damage, though. A distorted eye is apparent on visible satellite loops, but Sandy is showing only minor disruption to its inner core structure as a result of hitting Jamaica. According to the Jamaica Observer, "Alligator Pond [in St Elizabeth] was inundated with the high waves that came ashore. We are now getting reports of impacts out in St. Catherine, Portland and St. Thomas as the ground becomes saturated. We are now seeing where light poles are toppling and landslides being reported and roadway being flooded to the point where there is impeded access in east St. Thomas." Heavy rains from Sandy are falling in Haiti. A NOAA forecast based on microwave satellite data predicts 12 inches of rain for the tip of Haiti's southwestern Peninsula, which will likely cause life-threatening flash flooding. Fortunately, much lighter rainfall amounts are predicted for the capital of Port-au-Prince, where 350,000 people still live in the open under tarps in the wake of the January 2010 earthquake. In August, flooding from Hurricane Isaac killed at least 29 people in Haiti.
End of his comments
Here is the GFS model from www.wright-weather.com
Remember that the GFS is just one of many models that meteorologists use to forecast the weather. You can see Sandy moving up the coast and becoming entangled with the trough of low pressure moving through the northeast - this could be a significant event for the coastline area. High winds, major flooding, heavy rain, and even snow in some areas inland. The potential for a damaging event appears to be growing. With that said - questioned remain on the exact track and eventual strength of Sandy and perhaps the merger.
The first image is for Sunday night - then Tuesday night - then Wednesday night - you can see the system TIGHTLY wound up and moving northward
Click images for the real size view - the colors represent heavy rainfall - the deeper colors are the heaviest rain. The lines are isobars. The tighter those isobars are the higher the wind speeds that can be expected.
Then Wednesday night
New data indicates a landfall further south - models will continue to go back and forth with the eventual path and intensity - LONG way to go to monitor this one.
Here is the morning run of the GFS model - see how it has shifted landfall further south
With some models now showing Sandy making landfall well to the south of New England,
and possibly meaning less of an impact to New England, something keep in mind, esp
for wind potential...
The Dec 11-12 1992 event...one of the worst Nor'easters on record to impact NEUS/Mid
Atlantic. The storm central pressure got to down 985 mb near the Delmarva and stalled. We
had a 1035 mb high over Quebec and it was bad for wind BOS to DCA. Maps here:
http://www.meteo.psu...1992/us1211.php
http://www.meteo.psu...1992/us1212.php
Now the ECMWF shows a similar depth high to the NE-NW. Its position is further N and
it isn't as strongly nosed down close from the NE like in Dec 92, *but*, do some math here.
What was the absolute pressure difference then?...50 mb. What is will be the absolute pressure
difference coming up...being a bit conservative at 960 mb for Sandy, and the 1035 mb high
the ECMWF shows...75 mb! The high to the N is not as pressing for the Sandy event, but a
25 mb greater difference I would think would make it at least as bad as Dec 92 for wind/storm
surge in New England, given the track stays to the S of Long island. So a Delmarva landfall might
not make much difference. Problem is impact is going to be high regardless so any minimizing
statements (i.e. not the worst case scenario) might not be a good idea right now. You have to
look at it from degrees of bad. Even if it is not the absolute worst case scenario for New England, the
worst case scenario is so bad, that getting a little less than that is still really bad relatively speaking.
So if only a million people are w/o power in in southern New England vs. 1.5 million...see what I mean? When that many people lose power, it is a disaster no matter what.
The infamous Blizzard of 78 in New England had 70-73 mb difference between the high to the N
and the storm center to the S of New England.
Here is my summary of day 1 of the Dec 1992 event from my historical wx files. We got hit hard in SNE obviously as well.
12/11/1992
One of the fiercest "nor'easters" this century in was progress
across the New York City area and the Mid Atlantic region. A
985 millibar low stalled over the Delmarva Peninsula. This
combined with a 1035 millibar high pressure over Quebec set up
an enormous easterly pressure gradient which resulted in winds
exceeding hurricane force in many places and record high tides.
Ambrose Light Station just southeast of New York City recorded
sustained winds of 80 mph with gusts to 93 mph. Wildwood
Crest, New Jersey reported gusts to 90 mph and New Holland,
Pennsylvania measured 82 mph gusts. In Philadelphia,
Pennsylvania, the high winds broke a church steeple which fell
onto and closed the Ben Franklin Bridge to New Jersey. Some of
the worst coastal flooding ever associated with a nor'easter
occurred as tides were pushed 3 to 6 feet above normal,
resulting in widespread damage and beach erosion. LaGuardia
Airport was closed due to flooding. The East River flooded
Manhattan's FDR Drive, stranding dozens of motorists. Flooding
at a Con Edison station shut down New York City's entire subway
system for more than 3 hours. Tremendous snowfalls occurred at
inland locations as the storm was a very slow mover. Piney
Dam, Maryland was buried under 42 inches of snow to set a new
state snowfall record for a single storm. Ogletown, Pennsylvania
measured 36 inches of snow and Mount Storm, West Virginia recorded
32 inches.
End of his comments - you can see there is great concern about coastal flooding and other problems from Sandy.
Back to our region...
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year - see map below
Gusty winds and rain on Friday will make it feel raw outside. Otherwise - some frost possible Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday morning.
If you have sensitive plants outside then monitor overnight low forecasts in the coming days.
No wild cards in this forecast package
.
.
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
.
---
The forecast for severe or extreme weather
.
The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
.
Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits A rumble of thunder possible
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits? No
Sunday : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits? No
.
For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
or
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
.
.
Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
.
Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
Thursday - No
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
.
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
.
The
links above are interactive and
you can move
around the United States by
simply clicking on the
national map - or
from the pull down menu
where it says regions and
US States.
.
To view the interactive warning map - click here.
.
.
You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
.
.
The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
.
We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site !
---
We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. I have added all of eastern Kentucky, as well.
We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS ---
---
We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
.
To view the interactive warning map - click here.
.
You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
.
The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site !
---
We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. I have added all of eastern Kentucky, as well.
We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS ---
---
We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
.
Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
.
.
-----------------------------
.
.
Let's
check
out the how much rain is
forecast to fall in our
region. This map gives
you a general
broad brushed idea of
what can be
expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
Click the link below - then choose your the time period you are interested in!
CLICK HERE FOR THE RAINFALL GRAPHIC - then choose the time frame above the image
Click the link below - then choose your the time period you are interested in!
CLICK HERE FOR THE RAINFALL GRAPHIC - then choose the time frame above the image
.
You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
.
Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
.
You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
.
Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
.
.
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
.
To view recent records that have been broken - click here
.
.
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
.
To view recent records that have been broken - click here
.
.
---
1. The big story in the extended range will be the looming threat of a major storm along the East Coast of the United States.
For our region we will experience below normal temperatures into the middle of next week. No severe weather is expected in our local counties through next Tuesday. I will be monitoring the potential for some severe weather as we move into the first week or two of November. Long way off - monitor updates.
This is what the GFS is showing for November 5th and 6th - LONG way off but the signals have been on the maps for awhile. This could bring showers and thunderstorms into our region. I will be keeping an eye on this storm system.
Click image for real size view - image from wright-weather.com
Latest drought information:
DROUGHT INFORMATION - CLICK HERE
Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here
If you are a weather enthusiast then I recommend listening to WeatherBrains each week! For a more in-depth look at what is happening in meteorology.
Now is a GREAT
time to buy a NOAA All Hazards
Weather Radio. Better to have one
before storms
strike than to be without one
during an event. I recommend the
Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
.
Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
.
.
Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
.
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
.
All other states- Click Here
.
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
.
Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
.
.
October 24-25th Warm for October!
October 24th-25th
For more frequent updates visit my weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
This blog is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
No major concerns at this time.
No.
No wild cards in this forecast package
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
.
----
The forecast for severe or extreme weather
.
The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
.
Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits No
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits? No
Friday : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits? A few thunderstorms possible
1. All eyes will be on the big storm moving up the east coast. The impact for our region will be cooler/colder air later this weekend and into next week.
The first week of November may bring a system into our region - this will need to be monitored. Some indications of a severe weather pattern. Long way off.
Latest drought information:
DROUGHT INFORMATION - CLICK HERE
Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here
If you are a weather enthusiast then I recommend listening to WeatherBrains each week! For a more in-depth look at what is happening in meteorology.
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
.
.
Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
.
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
.
Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
.
.
For more frequent updates visit my weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
This blog is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
.
Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
Wednesday: Beautiful - sunny - warm for October.
Highs: in the lower to middle 80s
Wind: South winds 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
Wind: South winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: Southerly winds at 10-20 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Highs: in the lower to middle 80s
Wind: South winds 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
Wednesday night: Mostly clear and pleasant.
Lows: in the upper 50s Wind: South winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
.
Thursday: Sunny and mild for October - above normal temperatures to continue.
Highs: in the lower 80s Wind: Southerly winds at 10-20 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Thursday night: An increase in clouds - continued mild - a chance for late night thunderstorms
Lows: in the 55-60 degree range
Wind: south winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
This
forecast
analysis covers far southern
Illinois, southeast
Missouri,
southwest Indiana,
western Kentucky, and
northwest
Tennessee
HEADLINES: The big story in the coming days is going to be the storm moving up along the eastern seaboard of the United States.
Tropical Storm Sandy is currently located south of Jamaica and is moving northward. Sandy will eventually become a hurricane and bring very heavy rainfall to the islands - flooding rains.
A trough of low pressure will move through our region on Thursday night into Friday night. This trough will bring a cold front into our local counties during the day on Friday. A band of showers and thunderstorms will form along the front - rainfall totals in our region should be on the light side. Severe weather is not currently forecasted with the cold front.
As the trough of low pressure moves east over the weekend it may combine with Sandy and become a powerful system. Some of the model data indicates a historic storm hitting portions of the Middle Atlantic and New England region. Those with interests along the East Coast of the United States should monitor updates in the coming days.
This is what the NAM Computer Model is showing for Sandy on Sunday. You can see it off the coast of Florida. You can also see on this map the cold front moving through our region. That would be the pink and purple area - the pink and purple indicates rainfall. See the scale at the bottom of the page.
Nothing too heavy for our region - but some showers and storms. Rainfall totals will likely be in the 0.40-0.80" range.
Friday will turn much cooler and windy - raw fallish day.
Click image for full size view - image is from www.wright-weather.com
Let's take a look at what the GFS Computer Model is showing for Sunday - same time frame. Similar track - GFS (at this point) is a tad east of the NAM Model.
By Sunday morning the GFS has the system well off the East Coast of the United States - however, other models pull it further west. This will need to be monitored in the coming days. If this system does merge with the trough in the central United States then it will be one heck of a storm.
Look at what the European does with the storm - another model. It brings it well west and impacts New England with a devastating blow.
This image is from WeatherBell
Here is the GFS model low temperatures for Sunday and Monday morning - brr - part of these lows depend on the eventual track of our storm along the eastern seaboard.
I will need to fine tune the actual forecast lows as we move through the work week. If you have sensitive plants then you might pay a little more attention to forecast updates over the coming days.
Click image for real size view - image from www.wright-weather.com
Sunday morning lows
And then Monday morning lows
Here is what Sandy looks like on Satellite (as of Tuesday evening)
If Sandy fully merges with the trough of low pressure then we may experience even colder air than forecast for Sunday into the middle of next week. Perhaps our first hard freeze. Stay tuned.
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year - see map below
Normal lows for this time of the year
Wind: south winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
HEADLINES: The big story in the coming days is going to be the storm moving up along the eastern seaboard of the United States.
Tropical Storm Sandy is currently located south of Jamaica and is moving northward. Sandy will eventually become a hurricane and bring very heavy rainfall to the islands - flooding rains.
A trough of low pressure will move through our region on Thursday night into Friday night. This trough will bring a cold front into our local counties during the day on Friday. A band of showers and thunderstorms will form along the front - rainfall totals in our region should be on the light side. Severe weather is not currently forecasted with the cold front.
As the trough of low pressure moves east over the weekend it may combine with Sandy and become a powerful system. Some of the model data indicates a historic storm hitting portions of the Middle Atlantic and New England region. Those with interests along the East Coast of the United States should monitor updates in the coming days.
This is what the NAM Computer Model is showing for Sandy on Sunday. You can see it off the coast of Florida. You can also see on this map the cold front moving through our region. That would be the pink and purple area - the pink and purple indicates rainfall. See the scale at the bottom of the page.
Nothing too heavy for our region - but some showers and storms. Rainfall totals will likely be in the 0.40-0.80" range.
Friday will turn much cooler and windy - raw fallish day.
Click image for full size view - image is from www.wright-weather.com
Let's take a look at what the GFS Computer Model is showing for Sunday - same time frame. Similar track - GFS (at this point) is a tad east of the NAM Model.
By Sunday morning the GFS has the system well off the East Coast of the United States - however, other models pull it further west. This will need to be monitored in the coming days. If this system does merge with the trough in the central United States then it will be one heck of a storm.
This image is from WeatherBell
Here is the GFS model low temperatures for Sunday and Monday morning - brr - part of these lows depend on the eventual track of our storm along the eastern seaboard.
I will need to fine tune the actual forecast lows as we move through the work week. If you have sensitive plants then you might pay a little more attention to forecast updates over the coming days.
Click image for real size view - image from www.wright-weather.com
Sunday morning lows
Here is what Sandy looks like on Satellite (as of Tuesday evening)
If Sandy fully merges with the trough of low pressure then we may experience even colder air than forecast for Sunday into the middle of next week. Perhaps our first hard freeze. Stay tuned.
No major concerns at this time.
No.
No wild cards in this forecast package
.
.
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
.
---
The forecast for severe or extreme weather
.
The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
.
Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits No
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits? No
Friday : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits? A few thunderstorms possible
.
For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
or
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
.
.
Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
.
Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
Wednesday - No
Thursday - No
Friday - No
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
Thursday - No
Friday - No
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
.
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
.
The
links above are interactive and
you can move
around the United States by
simply clicking on the
national map - or
from the pull down menu
where it says regions and
US States.
.
To view the interactive warning map - click here.
.
.
You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
.
.
The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
.
We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site !
---
We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. I have added all of eastern Kentucky, as well.
We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS ---
---
We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
.
To view the interactive warning map - click here.
.
You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
.
The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site !
---
We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. I have added all of eastern Kentucky, as well.
We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS ---
---
We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
.
Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
.
.
-----------------------------
.
.
Let's
check
out the how much rain is
forecast to fall in our
region. This map gives
you a general
broad brushed idea of
what can be
expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
Click the link below - then choose your the time period you are interested in!
CLICK HERE FOR THE RAINFALL GRAPHIC - then choose the time frame above the image
Click the link below - then choose your the time period you are interested in!
CLICK HERE FOR THE RAINFALL GRAPHIC - then choose the time frame above the image
.
You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
.
Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
.
You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
.
Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
.
.
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
.
To view recent records that have been broken - click here
.
.
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
.
To view recent records that have been broken - click here
.
.
---
1. All eyes will be on the big storm moving up the east coast. The impact for our region will be cooler/colder air later this weekend and into next week.
The first week of November may bring a system into our region - this will need to be monitored. Some indications of a severe weather pattern. Long way off.
Latest drought information:
DROUGHT INFORMATION - CLICK HERE
Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here
If you are a weather enthusiast then I recommend listening to WeatherBrains each week! For a more in-depth look at what is happening in meteorology.
Now is a GREAT
time to buy a NOAA All Hazards
Weather Radio. Better to have one
before storms
strike than to be without one
during an event. I recommend the
Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
.
Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
.
.
Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
.
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
.
All other states- Click Here
.
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
.
Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
.
.
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