An outflow boundary moving through the region may spark a few thunderstorms today. Any storms that form could produce brief heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds. Although severe weather is not anticipated - there could be a few strong storms.
Activity is forecast to be scattered in nature with many areas remaining dry.
June 15th-19th 2012
Friday through Tuesday update
I am in summer mode - that means I try to update every other day or every 2-3 days. If the weather is active then I will come in and update the forecast as needed.
For more frequent updates check visit my weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Wind: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny - warm. Scattered thunderstorms possible.
Wind: Southeast at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" if a storm forms - locally heavier
Confidence in this forecast is high
Friday: Mostly sunny and hot. A stray thunderstorm possible
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 90s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 87 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Friday night: A stray evening thunderstorm - then becoming mostly clear skies and warm
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny - warm. Scattered thunderstorms possible.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 80s to lower 90s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 87 degrees.Wind: Southeast at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" if a storm forms - locally heavier
Confidence in this forecast is high
Saturday night: Mostly clear skies - warm. A few scattered thunderstorms possible.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.Wind: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" locally heavier in a storm
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Sunday: Partly sunny and warm - thunderstorms possible
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 88-94 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 87 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southeast winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" but locally heavier in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Sunday night: Partly cloudy and mild - small chance for a stray storm
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds of 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - `10% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" but locally heavier in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Southerly winds of 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - `10% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" but locally heavier in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Monday: Partly cloudy skies - hot - an isolated thunderstorm possible
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 94 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 87 degrees.Wind: Southerly winds at 10-20 mph - gusts above 30 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" but locally heavier in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is medium
Monday night: Partly cloudy skies.
Above normal temperatures
Monday night: Partly cloudy skies.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is medium
Tuesday: Partly sunny skies - hot.
Above normal temperatures
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Wind: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is medium
Tuesday: Partly sunny skies - hot.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 92 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 87 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 10-20 mph and gusty at times
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is medium Wind: Southerly winds at 10-20 mph and gusty at times
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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No major concerns - there could be a stray storm - lightning would be the issue if a storm forms. Of course storms can produce locally heavy rain and gusty winds. These appear to be more of the "pop-up" type storms.
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If you are boating this weekend or have outdoor activities on Saturday/Sunday then take a glance at radar during the afternoon - Cumulus Clouds appear then monitor radars.
No significant wild cards in this forecast!
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Placed a small chance for storms in the forecast - mainly afternoon heat popup storms.
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here. I also strongly encourage you to FRIEND some of the local media meteorologists - I follow all of them and so should you.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
or
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Friday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Stray storm
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Friday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Stray storm
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Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Stray storm
.Saturday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Stray storm
Saturday night : Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Stray storm
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Sunday: Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Storms possible
Sunday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? A stray storm possible
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? A stray storm possible
Monday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
Friday - No
Saturday - A chance for a watch - mainly the northwestern counties
Sunday - No
Monday - No
Tuesday - No
Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Storms possible
Sunday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? A stray storm possible
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? A stray storm possible
Monday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
Friday - No
Saturday - A chance for a watch - mainly the northwestern counties
Sunday - No
Monday - No
Tuesday - No
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The
links above are interactive and
you can move
around the United States by
simply clicking on the
national map - or
from the pull down menu
where it says regions and
US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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This
forecast
analysis covers far southern
Illinois, southeast
Missouri,
southwest Indiana,
western Kentucky, and
northwest
Tennessee
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HEADLINES: It feels like a broken record - warm and dry weather will continue into the weekend. The atmosphere will be warming up a bit more and will become a bit more moist. This could lead to a few stray thunderstorms - especially during the afternoon hours. The chance for precipitation at any given point is likely going to be around 20% or less. Not the best chance - the majority of the region will remain dry.
The drought will continue to grow worse over the coming days. What moisture is in the ground will continue to evaporate. This will lead to continued problems for farmers and river interests.
In order to break this drought we need a tropical system to move up into the region from the Gulf of Mexico.
Here are a few of the latest drought maps - they tell the story and it is not a good one.
Wish I had better news for the local farmers. These maps just continue to show an intensifying drought situation.
Just a sickening drought situation for a large chunk of the nation - we need some tropical activity to break this cycle.
The next two images you can click for a larger view
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HEADLINES: It feels like a broken record - warm and dry weather will continue into the weekend. The atmosphere will be warming up a bit more and will become a bit more moist. This could lead to a few stray thunderstorms - especially during the afternoon hours. The chance for precipitation at any given point is likely going to be around 20% or less. Not the best chance - the majority of the region will remain dry.
The drought will continue to grow worse over the coming days. What moisture is in the ground will continue to evaporate. This will lead to continued problems for farmers and river interests.
In order to break this drought we need a tropical system to move up into the region from the Gulf of Mexico.
Here are a few of the latest drought maps - they tell the story and it is not a good one.
Wish I had better news for the local farmers. These maps just continue to show an intensifying drought situation.
The next two images you can click for a larger view
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's
check
out the how much rain is
forecast to fall
over the next 120
hours (5 days). This map gives
you a general
broad brushed idea of
what can be
expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Date Range: June 16th-June 22nd -
Event: Trough in the central U.S. - should bring a deeper area of low pressure into the Central Plains - showers and thunderstorms - this could bring us a shot at rain, as well
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
Date Range: June 24th-29th
Event: Watching the tropics
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: August 4th-9th
Event: Trough in the central United States - showers and thunderstorms in the central U.S. - should bring a front into our region, as well. Chance for precipitation.
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Date Range: June 16th-June 22nd -
Event: Trough in the central U.S. - should bring a deeper area of low pressure into the Central Plains - showers and thunderstorms - this could bring us a shot at rain, as well
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
Date Range: June 24th-29th
Event: Watching the tropics
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: August 4th-9th
Event: Trough in the central United States - showers and thunderstorms in the central U.S. - should bring a front into our region, as well. Chance for precipitation.
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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No major concerns. We may enter a bit more active pattern as we move into later next week and the following week - this is a long way off and droughts are hard to break. We won't get overly excited about the prospect for rain just yet. I will monitor.
Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here
Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here
Now is a GREAT
time to buy a NOAA All Hazards
Weather Radio. Better to have one
before storms
strike than to be without one
during an event. I recommend the
Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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