Thursday evening into Friday update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Thursday night: Partly cloudy with an isolated thunderstorm possible. Otherwise warm and humid. If you need to view radar - click here.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 53 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" with locally heavier amounts in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Friday: Warm - humid - partly sunny with a chance for thunderstorms. If you need to view radar - click here.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 85-90 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southerly winds at 10-20 mph with gusts above 25 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" with locally heavier amounts in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Friday night: Partly cloudy skies. Warm and humid.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 60s and lower 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 53 degrees.
Wind: Southwest at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" with locally heavier amounts in thunderstorms Confidence in this forecast is medium
Wind: Southwest at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" with locally heavier amounts in thunderstorms Confidence in this forecast is medium
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Saturday: A few clouds - a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms. If you need to view radar - click here.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 85-90 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.Wind: Southwest at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" with locally heavier amounts in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is medium
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Isolated or scattered thunderstorms - brief heavy rain and lightning is the main concern. Lightning being the primary concern for any outdoor events - monitor or check radars if concerned.
Can't rule out some isolated severe storms on Friday - monitor for updates. We are in a risk zone (at least at the time of this writing) for Friday and Friday evening. A slight risk has been outlined by the Storm Prediction Center (see graphic below).
If you need to view radar - click here.
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Isolated or scattered thunderstorms - brief heavy rain and lightning is the main concern. Lightning being the primary concern for any outdoor events - monitor or check radars if concerned.
If you need to view radar - click here.
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The wild card in this forecast is obvious - the timing of precipitation chances over the coming days. There will be on and off chances as weak disturbances move through the flow. Any one of these disturbances could trigger showers and thunderstorms.
This continues to be the type of patter where one county could pick up locally heavy rain while neighboring counties come up empty handed. Just the type of pattern we are in (nothing unusual for this region of the nation).
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Increased chances for thunderstorms.
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Friday: A few storms could become severe. Monitor for any watches and warnings.
Friday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
.Friday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Friday night : Widespread severe weather is not anticipated - but a few storms could be severe. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Saturday: Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - No
Friday - Possible
Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - No
Friday - Possible
Saturday - Unlikely for most of the region - perhaps a slightly better chance in the far far northwestern counties - closer to St Louis.
Sunday - Unlikely but will monitor
Sunday night - monitor
Sunday night - monitor
Monday - Possible
Tuesday - No
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
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HEADLINES: An unsettled pattern will remain over the region into early next week. Warm temperatures will also be the rule into Sunday.
There will be on and off shower and thunderstorm chances as weak disturbances move through the flow - timing them and giving spot forecasts for one county or another will prove to be difficult (same as the past week - some places have had 2-3" of rain while others have had no rain at all).
There will be a stronger cold front push into the region on Sunday into Monday - this should spark a more widespread shower and thunderstorm event. A few of the storms could be heavy or severe.
Of course any thunderstorms that form in this moist and unstable air-mass could produce lightning, heavy downpours, hail, and gusty winds. The tornado threat appears low.
We have been outlined for a severe weather risk on FRIDAY - this outline will likely shift around a bit over the coming 12-24 hours. They typically do - the Storm Prediction Center is in charge of these severe weather outlooks. To see the most up to date outlook - click here.
Here are the official severe weather outlooks for this afternoon/tonight and then Friday and Saturday.
This first graphic is for Thursday afternoon/evening - second graphic is for Friday.
The orange area represents a slight risk zone - the yellow area represents general thunderstorms.
Remember that a slight risk for severe thunderstorms means that severe thunderstorms are likely to occur in or near the risk zone - but are not expected to produce "widespread" severe reports.
Keep in mind that these outlooks are updated several times by the Storm Prediction Center and could move around a bit. To see the most up to date outlook - click here.
There will be quite a bit of CAPE on Friday - remember that CAPE is basically energy in the atmosphere - here is the CAPE forecast map from www.wright-weather.com and the Paducah, KY sounding (the sounding shows CAPE over 3000 on Friday in the Paducah area). That is quite unstable.
Here is the Paducah, KY sounding - the area to the right of the white line - inside the red area is CAPE.
This is for Friday afternoon - the lift index is -6 and CAPE values are 3300. EHI is in the 1.5 to 2.5 range. If a few severe storms form then large hail could occur - damaging winds - isolated tornadoes. The tornado risk appears low.
Click image to view real size.
The above image shows you the NAM forecast - you can see on and off shower/storm chances - this is for Paducah - but you could duplicate this across the area.
Again - it won't rain everywhere - it won't rain all of the time - similar to the last few weeks - some places may pick up heavy thunderstorms while neighboring areas miss out.
It appears that a few storms on Friday could be severe in or near our region. Best advice is to monitor for updates and any watches/warnings. Monitor radars - as is usually the case this time of the year.
Temperatures will be well above normal over the coming days. Well into the 80s and a few places may even hit 90 degrees.
Here are the temperatures forecasts
Friday morning low temperatures will be warm!
Friday afternoon highs - the warmer we are on Friday the more unstable we will become. Cloud cover would help keep instability down a bit. We will see how that goes tomorrow once we see what happens during the overnight hours - whether some clouds spread in from the west/northwest is questionable.
Saturday and Sunday will be very warm - sun screen would be a great idea! There should be a mix of sun and clouds over the weekend with some scattered showers and thunderstorms.
I would not cancel any outdoor plans - I would, however, check for updates on the latest forecast for your area and monitor radars if you are concerned.
Saturday high temperatures
Sunday high temperatures
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HEADLINES: An unsettled pattern will remain over the region into early next week. Warm temperatures will also be the rule into Sunday.
There will be on and off shower and thunderstorm chances as weak disturbances move through the flow - timing them and giving spot forecasts for one county or another will prove to be difficult (same as the past week - some places have had 2-3" of rain while others have had no rain at all).
There will be a stronger cold front push into the region on Sunday into Monday - this should spark a more widespread shower and thunderstorm event. A few of the storms could be heavy or severe.
Of course any thunderstorms that form in this moist and unstable air-mass could produce lightning, heavy downpours, hail, and gusty winds. The tornado threat appears low.
We have been outlined for a severe weather risk on FRIDAY - this outline will likely shift around a bit over the coming 12-24 hours. They typically do - the Storm Prediction Center is in charge of these severe weather outlooks. To see the most up to date outlook - click here.
Here are the official severe weather outlooks for this afternoon/tonight and then Friday and Saturday.
This first graphic is for Thursday afternoon/evening - second graphic is for Friday.
The orange area represents a slight risk zone - the yellow area represents general thunderstorms.
Remember that a slight risk for severe thunderstorms means that severe thunderstorms are likely to occur in or near the risk zone - but are not expected to produce "widespread" severe reports.
Keep in mind that these outlooks are updated several times by the Storm Prediction Center and could move around a bit. To see the most up to date outlook - click here.
There will be quite a bit of CAPE on Friday - remember that CAPE is basically energy in the atmosphere - here is the CAPE forecast map from www.wright-weather.com and the Paducah, KY sounding (the sounding shows CAPE over 3000 on Friday in the Paducah area). That is quite unstable.
Here is the Paducah, KY sounding - the area to the right of the white line - inside the red area is CAPE.
This is for Friday afternoon - the lift index is -6 and CAPE values are 3300. EHI is in the 1.5 to 2.5 range. If a few severe storms form then large hail could occur - damaging winds - isolated tornadoes. The tornado risk appears low.
Click image to view real size.
Again - it won't rain everywhere - it won't rain all of the time - similar to the last few weeks - some places may pick up heavy thunderstorms while neighboring areas miss out.
It appears that a few storms on Friday could be severe in or near our region. Best advice is to monitor for updates and any watches/warnings. Monitor radars - as is usually the case this time of the year.
Temperatures will be well above normal over the coming days. Well into the 80s and a few places may even hit 90 degrees.
Here are the temperatures forecasts
Friday morning low temperatures will be warm!
I would not cancel any outdoor plans - I would, however, check for updates on the latest forecast for your area and monitor radars if you are concerned.
Saturday high temperatures
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 5 days. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
THIS IS THE FIVE DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK - this is broad-brushed. Keep this in mind - some areas could pick up heavy thunderstorms while neighboring areas pick up very little in the way of rainfall. The nature of the beast this time of the year.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
THIS IS THE FIVE DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK - this is broad-brushed. Keep this in mind - some areas could pick up heavy thunderstorms while neighboring areas pick up very little in the way of rainfall. The nature of the beast this time of the year.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Date Range: April 30th - May 5th
Event: Unsettled weather - warm to very warm
Severe Risk: Possible
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Unsettled weather. Much above normal temperatures.
Confidence in my forecast. Medium
Date Range: May 5th-11h
Event: Unsettled weather
Severe Risk: Possible
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Unsettled weather. Below normal temperatures look more likely.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: May 29th-June 3rd
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates.
Confidence in my forecast. Low More information on the long range cycle
Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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1. The weekend will be warm with scattered thunderstorms.
Dew points will be quite high this weekend - remember dew points are a MUCH better measure of the moisture content of the air (don't use relative humidity).
If you have dew points into the lower and middle 60s then it feels moist outside - dew points into the upper 60s and 70s feel muggy and uncomfortable.
Here are the dew point forecast numbers - these images are from www.wright-weather.com
SATURDAY DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY DEW POINTS
MONDAY DEW POINTS - NOTE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST - Dew points will be lower behind the cold front
Now let's look ahead to NEXT Thursday - notice the dramatic drop in the dew points. A MUCH better air-mass - more normal temperatures, as well. Dew points are lower - it feels better outside. Not as humid.
How about let's take a look at something a little bit cooler? This is the latest 6-10 day temperature outlook and the 8-14 day outlook (note the dates at the top of each image) - this represents the cool down later next week.
The blue area indicates that odds favor below normal temperatures. Normal highs this time of the year are in the middle 70s and normal lows are in the lower 50s.
You can view these images and precipitation forecasts by clicking here
May 8th-12th of next week - first image
And the 8-14 day outlook (May 12th through the 16th)
Let's take a look at the LAST 30 days of data - precipitation and temperatures
First map is the total precipitation for the past 30 days - the nation has been quite dry.
The second map is the departure from normal - you can see a large chunk of the nation had below normal precipitation over the last 30 days.
The last map is the temperature departures for the last 30 days - much of the nation has been above normal in the precipitation department.
Dew points will be quite high this weekend - remember dew points are a MUCH better measure of the moisture content of the air (don't use relative humidity).
If you have dew points into the lower and middle 60s then it feels moist outside - dew points into the upper 60s and 70s feel muggy and uncomfortable.
Here are the dew point forecast numbers - these images are from www.wright-weather.com
SATURDAY DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY DEW POINTS
MONDAY DEW POINTS - NOTE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST - Dew points will be lower behind the cold front
How about let's take a look at something a little bit cooler? This is the latest 6-10 day temperature outlook and the 8-14 day outlook (note the dates at the top of each image) - this represents the cool down later next week.
The blue area indicates that odds favor below normal temperatures. Normal highs this time of the year are in the middle 70s and normal lows are in the lower 50s.
You can view these images and precipitation forecasts by clicking here
May 8th-12th of next week - first image
Let's take a look at the LAST 30 days of data - precipitation and temperatures
First map is the total precipitation for the past 30 days - the nation has been quite dry.
The second map is the departure from normal - you can see a large chunk of the nation had below normal precipitation over the last 30 days.
The last map is the temperature departures for the last 30 days - much of the nation has been above normal in the precipitation department.
Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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