May 11th-13th: Shower chances enter the picture

May 11th-12th - 2012

Friday evening into Saturday update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Friday night:  Mostly cloudy skies - pleasant temperatures!  Beautiful evening.
Near normal to below normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 50s  |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 55 degrees.
Wind:  Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.  
Precipitation probability - 0%   | Rainfall totals:  0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Saturday:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible - scattered.
Near normal temperatures
Highs:  around 75 degrees.  | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 77 degrees.
Wind: Southeast winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 40%  Rainfall totals:   0.20"
Confidence in this forecast is very high

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Saturday night:  Cloudy with showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.
Near normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 50s and lower 60s |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 55 degrees.
Wind:  Light winds
Precipitation probability - 60%  Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.50" and locally heavier amounts possible - mainly southeast counties
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Sunday:  Mostly cloudy skies and a chance for a shower - slight chance for a thunderstorm.  
Near normal to below normal temperatures
Highs:  around 70-75 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 77 degrees.
Wind: East at 5-15 mph  
Precipitation probability - 40%  Rainfall totals:  0.25"-0.50" heaviest amounts southeast counties - lesser amounts northwest counties
Confidence in this forecast is high 
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A chance for lightning Saturday night and Sunday - severe weather is not anticipated.

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If you have outdoor plans Saturday night or Sunday then check radar.  There will be a few showers and storms around - no severe weather expected.  Lightning is always a concern if outdoors.

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No significant wild cards in this forecast!
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No major changes in this update!

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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather

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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado.  More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here

For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here 
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Friday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Friday night: 
Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Saturday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Saturday:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  No
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Saturday night :
 
Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Saturday night:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Small chance for a thunderstorm
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Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Sunday: 
Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms?  Yes

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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?  
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Tonight - No
Saturday - No  
Sunday - No
Monday - No 
Tuesday - No 
Wednesday - No
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here  Alternative link - click here
 


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To view all watches and warnings in IL -  Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here

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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning  map - click here.

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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site.  For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.

 
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
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HEADLINES:  
Clouds are on the increase as a system moves northeast  from Texas and Oklahoma.  Shower chances will increase late on the day on Saturday but more likely Saturday night and Sunday.  

A few thunderstorms will likely be mixed in with the showers - lightning being the main concern with any storms this weekend..


Severe weather is not anticipated.  That is the good news!


I would not cancel any plans but I would check radars to see where the shower and storms are located later on Saturday into Sunday.



We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more!  Click here 
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.

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Want to learn more about how to use our radars?  I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours.  This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected.  Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.


Rainfall totals Saturday night into Sunday will be in the 0.10-0.50" range - locally heavier in thunderstorms.

48 hour rainfall forecast

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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time.  Those maps can be viewed here.  
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.



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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in 

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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Date Range:  May 24th-June 2nd
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk:  Yes - possible event. 
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast.  Low  


Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates.
Confidence in my forecast.  Low  More information on the long range cycle      

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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention).  I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible.  Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here

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1.  No major weather events on the horizon!  Amazing for spring.


Unfortunately the drought will continue - this weekends rain will help some - but not enough.
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Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here

Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio.  Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event.  I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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1 comment:

  1. Severe thunderstorms can develop quickly and cause much destruction. Hurricanes can develop within days and their path, speed, and strength has to be watched closely.

    ReplyDelete