You can read my fall thoughts (and one update) by clicking the links on the top right side of this page. I will update the fall forecast as needed. Remember that fall is defined as September, October, and November - for meteorological purposes. I will also post monthly verification.
A quick look at the sensible weather for the coming days...
Clouds have spread over our region this morning - this is in response to what was a large area of showers and thunderstorms that impacted parts of Iowa, Kansas, and Missouri overnight.
A frontal system will approach our local counties on Wednesday night and move through our area on Thursday. There will be a chance for showers and storms on Wednesday night (most likely after 3 am) and this threat will continue into Thursday morning. Rainfall totals of 0.25-0.50" will be possible. Not everyone will experience rain. As has been the case for the last few months.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a slight risk area for parts of the Ohio Valley. A slight risk means there could be a few severe thunderstorms - mostly to our northeast and east. You can visit their web-site for more information.
Friday will be nice - less humid. We are expecting a warm up as we move deeper into the weekend and into next week. Much above normal temperatures are expected. Nearly half of September has been above normal in the temperature department.
I am keeping a close eye on a tropical system located in the Caribbean. This system is likely going to develop or has already developed into a tropical storm (looks great on satellite). The system will track across the Yucatan and into the Bay of Campeche. A second landfall will likely occur in Mexico. There could be some impact on southern Texas. Depending on the eventual track and development.
The coming weeks will continue to bring tropical threats. Active period - will continue. I have been discussing this for over a month now on my updates. Most forecasters have been in agreement on an active tropical season.
There are some hints of a "fall like" system for our region towards the end of next week. Not a lot of guidance (guidance means model data) agreement on the subject - so for now we will just keep an eye on the trends. This could, however, mean that we see a dramatic cool down late next weekend. Again - low confidence. I will attach a map showing what one of the models are showing. You will see a large high pressure system coming out of Canada and a deep low in the lakes. See map below.
For your local seven day forecast - click here. Remember that this forecast is issued by the National Weather Service Office out of Paducah, Kentucky. You can read my forecast thoughts on this blog or follow me on Facebook (under Beau Dodson).
You can always check radar and/or current conditions by clicking on the Weather Observatory web-site. Click here.
A couple of maps for your viewing pleasure :)
Map for next weekend (GFS Model) - map used with permission from http://www.wright-weather.com/ (click for larger image)
The above image is a weather map - the way the model thinks the weather map will look towards the end of next week. The big H coming down from Canada is high pressure. The wound up storm in the Great Lakes would be an area of low pressure. The pink and purple colors indicate where precipitation is likely. This map basically shows a deep "fall like" storm in the Great Lakes. That would mean a big cold front through our local area and a dramatic cool down (possibly severe storms in the central United States). However, that is 8-10 days away. So, confidence is low. Models are not perfect - far from perfect! But, we will watch the trends. I noticed Meteorologist Jim Rasor mentioned this subject on his latest twitter/facebook post.
The map above shows your the percent of normal precipitation that we have received so far this month. Can you track the remnants of Tropical Storm Hermine? The purple area is above normal precipitation percentage. You can see the system tracked (remember this is showing what has already occurred) through Texas and into our region. We should be thankful we received rainfall from this system. Otherwise our drought would be even worse. Anyway, I thought this was an interesting map and shows you how big of an impact tropical weather can have on our local region.
Finally, I wanted to remind everyone that our region usually experiences a second peak in severe weather as we move into the fall months (although severe weather can and has occurred year round - all twelve months). So, as we head into fall we could experience severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. We may see an active late fall and winter (see my fall forecast thoughts).
- Beau Dodson
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