The latest 8-14 day outlook does not provide much hope for rainfall. Temperatures will be close to normal. Here are the latest maps. The first map will be for temperatures and the second map will be precipitation. Click image for larger view.
September 29, 2010: Latest 8-14 day outlook
September 29, 2010:
The latest 8-14 day outlook does not provide much hope for rainfall. Temperatures will be close to normal. Here are the latest maps. The first map will be for temperatures and the second map will be precipitation. Click image for larger view.
The latest 8-14 day outlook does not provide much hope for rainfall. Temperatures will be close to normal. Here are the latest maps. The first map will be for temperatures and the second map will be precipitation. Click image for larger view.
September 28, 2010: Cooler weather is here for a few days! Flood to our east.
September 28, 2010:
Well, say hello to fall! Temperatures will feel great this week. Normal to below normal temperatures are likely through the rest of the week into the weekend. We could even see low temperatures into the upper 30s by the weekend and early next week. Quite the change from recent weeks. Surely we won't hear any complaints on that subject? Enjoy!
To see this mornings low temperature at the Weather Observatory here in Massac County, Illinois - click here. It was a chilly 45 degrees. We have not been that cool since last spring! :)
Longer range data indicates that we might start to warm up more as we move into the middle of October and end of October. But - some time to watch that. Unfortunately, the long range indicates the dry weather will continue. This is not news that we want to hear.
Fire departments are reminding everyone that they would rather you not burn brush or grass. This has been a problem in several of our local counties - fires getting away from people. So - use caution, please.
Your Seven Day Local Forecast can be viewed here: Seven Day Forecast
Meanwhile - the tropics have been active, as predicted. There is no end in sight to the active development. Expect unsettled weather from Florida up the east coast. We will also need to watch the Gulf of Mexico (esp the eastern half).
Portions of eastern Kentucky may need to keep an eye on this tropical system. Heavy rains will likely spread northward in the coming days. However, most of this rain is expected to remain east of Kentucky. Something to monitor.
A tropical depression developing in the Caribbean will push north towards Cuba and Florida over the coming days. Whether this system is named or not - we are looking at millions of dollars in damage from Cuba into Florida and up the east coast - because of ongoing flooding and flooding to come. If named this system would be Nicole. Below you will see a satellite photo of the depression - click for larger image.
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Extreme rainfall is forecast for a large portion of the east coast over the next 6-10 days. Rainfall totals in some areas will likely exceed 10 inches. Obviously this is going to cause flash flooding. This could be an expensive flood event if we see additional tropical development in the coming week.
To view more on the tropics please visit the National Hurricane Center's web-site - click here.
Here is one of the computer models that I use - the map is showing accumulated precipitation. You can see the widespread heavy rain on the east coast. The map is from http://www.wright-weather.com/ Click images for larger views.
- Meteorologist Beau Dodson
Well, say hello to fall! Temperatures will feel great this week. Normal to below normal temperatures are likely through the rest of the week into the weekend. We could even see low temperatures into the upper 30s by the weekend and early next week. Quite the change from recent weeks. Surely we won't hear any complaints on that subject? Enjoy!
To see this mornings low temperature at the Weather Observatory here in Massac County, Illinois - click here. It was a chilly 45 degrees. We have not been that cool since last spring! :)
Longer range data indicates that we might start to warm up more as we move into the middle of October and end of October. But - some time to watch that. Unfortunately, the long range indicates the dry weather will continue. This is not news that we want to hear.
Fire departments are reminding everyone that they would rather you not burn brush or grass. This has been a problem in several of our local counties - fires getting away from people. So - use caution, please.
Your Seven Day Local Forecast can be viewed here: Seven Day Forecast
Meanwhile - the tropics have been active, as predicted. There is no end in sight to the active development. Expect unsettled weather from Florida up the east coast. We will also need to watch the Gulf of Mexico (esp the eastern half).
Portions of eastern Kentucky may need to keep an eye on this tropical system. Heavy rains will likely spread northward in the coming days. However, most of this rain is expected to remain east of Kentucky. Something to monitor.
A tropical depression developing in the Caribbean will push north towards Cuba and Florida over the coming days. Whether this system is named or not - we are looking at millions of dollars in damage from Cuba into Florida and up the east coast - because of ongoing flooding and flooding to come. If named this system would be Nicole. Below you will see a satellite photo of the depression - click for larger image.
_1.jpg)
Extreme rainfall is forecast for a large portion of the east coast over the next 6-10 days. Rainfall totals in some areas will likely exceed 10 inches. Obviously this is going to cause flash flooding. This could be an expensive flood event if we see additional tropical development in the coming week.
To view more on the tropics please visit the National Hurricane Center's web-site - click here.
Here is one of the computer models that I use - the map is showing accumulated precipitation. You can see the widespread heavy rain on the east coast. The map is from http://www.wright-weather.com/ Click images for larger views.
When weather becomes personal you can check back here on the blog for updates - or join me on Facebook for quick daily updates.
- Meteorologist Beau Dodson
September 27, 2010: Are you ready for some fall like temperatures?
September 27, 2010
Expect a chilly start to October - with potential heavy rains over the east coast - couple of tropical threats from Florida into the southeast United States - pushing northward. Flooding a big big threat. Then look for temperatures to return to above normal as we push further into October. Dry weather will continue for the foreseeable future.
Ready for more seasonable temperatures? Tired of the 90+ temperatures? Great - because I have some wonderful weather news this morning. Cooler temperatures should last through the week! Normal to slightly below normal temperatures are expected right on through Friday.
The area experienced some showers and thunderstorms overnight. I actually managed to see a few lightning bolts up here on the hill in Massac County. Was a bit surprised! Not much rain has fallen - though. We picked up less than 0.05". Nothing to brag or write home about.
Check out the 5 day forecast for rainfall - extreme totals along the East Coast of the United States. This is in response to a storm system developing along the coast and a potential tropical system developing in the Caribbean. Amazing totals are forecast during the upcoming work week. Click for larger image.
Also check out what the NAM (a computer model) is forecasting for the east coast. These are precipitation totals through 84 hours. Image from http://www.wright-weather.com/ - click for larger view
Expect some of our coolest air of the season in the coming days. I would not be surprised to see some low temperatures into the middle to upper 40s across the region.
No severe weather is expected this week in our local area.
Don't forget our second severe weather season max is fast approaching. Storm systems could start producing severe weather as we move into late October and November. If you don't have a NOAA Weather Radio then now is a great time to buy one.
We still need rain. The drought continues to worsen over our region. Updated drought maps will be available later this week. We are entering our windy season. This is not going to help the local fire departments who have to deal with grass fires.
Our best hope for precipitation would be for a tropical system to move northward out of the Gulf of Mexico. There are no indications that is going to happen this week. The best risk for tropical weather will be over Florida and the southeast coast of the United States. But - we will continue to monitor the situation.
The 6-10 day precipitation outlook does not provide much hope. Click image for larger view.
Your seven day forecast and radar can be viewed on my regular site link
http://weatherobservatory.com/index.htm
Long range outlook: 6-10 day temperature outlook (blue means that the odds favor below normal temps and red means that the odds favor above normal temperatures)
Long range maps - above (day 5-6) showing below normal temperatures centered over our region. Click image for larger view. It should be a cool week into the weekend. Not bad for the start of October!
It appears we may finally see some rain/storm threats as we push into the middle of October. Until then - it looks mostly dry.
- Beau Dodson
Expect a chilly start to October - with potential heavy rains over the east coast - couple of tropical threats from Florida into the southeast United States - pushing northward. Flooding a big big threat. Then look for temperatures to return to above normal as we push further into October. Dry weather will continue for the foreseeable future.
Ready for more seasonable temperatures? Tired of the 90+ temperatures? Great - because I have some wonderful weather news this morning. Cooler temperatures should last through the week! Normal to slightly below normal temperatures are expected right on through Friday.
The area experienced some showers and thunderstorms overnight. I actually managed to see a few lightning bolts up here on the hill in Massac County. Was a bit surprised! Not much rain has fallen - though. We picked up less than 0.05". Nothing to brag or write home about.
Check out the 5 day forecast for rainfall - extreme totals along the East Coast of the United States. This is in response to a storm system developing along the coast and a potential tropical system developing in the Caribbean. Amazing totals are forecast during the upcoming work week. Click for larger image.
Also check out what the NAM (a computer model) is forecasting for the east coast. These are precipitation totals through 84 hours. Image from http://www.wright-weather.com/ - click for larger view
Expect some of our coolest air of the season in the coming days. I would not be surprised to see some low temperatures into the middle to upper 40s across the region.
No severe weather is expected this week in our local area.
Don't forget our second severe weather season max is fast approaching. Storm systems could start producing severe weather as we move into late October and November. If you don't have a NOAA Weather Radio then now is a great time to buy one.
We still need rain. The drought continues to worsen over our region. Updated drought maps will be available later this week. We are entering our windy season. This is not going to help the local fire departments who have to deal with grass fires.
Our best hope for precipitation would be for a tropical system to move northward out of the Gulf of Mexico. There are no indications that is going to happen this week. The best risk for tropical weather will be over Florida and the southeast coast of the United States. But - we will continue to monitor the situation.
The 6-10 day precipitation outlook does not provide much hope. Click image for larger view.
Your seven day forecast and radar can be viewed on my regular site link
http://weatherobservatory.com/index.htm
Long range outlook: 6-10 day temperature outlook (blue means that the odds favor below normal temps and red means that the odds favor above normal temperatures)
Long range maps - above (day 5-6) showing below normal temperatures centered over our region. Click image for larger view. It should be a cool week into the weekend. Not bad for the start of October!
It appears we may finally see some rain/storm threats as we push into the middle of October. Until then - it looks mostly dry.
- Beau Dodson
September 26, 2010: Few rain showers around
September 26, 2010:
Fall is in the air!!! Temperatures in the coming days will feel much more like Autumn than summer. Finally!
The cut off low we talked about last week is developing. This is helping to spark an area of rain over the Missouri and Ohio Valley region. Nothing to write home about. Just a few showers and thunderstorms for our local region. The unsettled weather will continue into Monday. Don't expect much in the way of rainfall. But, we will take what we can get.
The rest of the week should bring near normal temperatures - a few days below normal and some above normal days later in the week. Overall the week should be pretty nice. Of course we need rain to help with the drought situation. No drought breaking rain is in the cards at this time.
The medium and long range indicate seasonable temperatures. With several storms riding up the east coast we may see several days (in the coming 2 week period) of below normal temperatures. Quite the contrast from September.
Still watching Matthew and now the potential development of the next storm (in the Caribbean). Several more active weeks of tropical weather are expected.
- Beau
Fall is in the air!!! Temperatures in the coming days will feel much more like Autumn than summer. Finally!
The cut off low we talked about last week is developing. This is helping to spark an area of rain over the Missouri and Ohio Valley region. Nothing to write home about. Just a few showers and thunderstorms for our local region. The unsettled weather will continue into Monday. Don't expect much in the way of rainfall. But, we will take what we can get.
The rest of the week should bring near normal temperatures - a few days below normal and some above normal days later in the week. Overall the week should be pretty nice. Of course we need rain to help with the drought situation. No drought breaking rain is in the cards at this time.
The medium and long range indicate seasonable temperatures. With several storms riding up the east coast we may see several days (in the coming 2 week period) of below normal temperatures. Quite the contrast from September.
Still watching Matthew and now the potential development of the next storm (in the Caribbean). Several more active weeks of tropical weather are expected.
- Beau
September 24, 2010: Seasons are changing - dramatic changes ahead
September 24, 2010:
Late night tonight - forecasting for the weekends events - not overly concerned about the severe weather potential. Few showers and storms with the cold front later today. Once again most of us will not receive rain. Scattered - at best. Best chances over the eastern half of the region. Also put some more thoughts together on the coming "cool down" - which I am sure will be appreciated.
Here is the latest official 8-14 day outlook. The blue is cooler than normal and orange/red is above normal. Now remember - please - that that means the odds favor above or below normal temperatures. It does not mean that every day will be above or below normal in the temperature department. It is a probability of being above or below normal. Odds favor normal to below normal for our region. Click image for large view.
When seasons change the weather models have a hard time adjusting. The coming weeks will likely bring unsettled weather to our region. Several major players are on the playing field. One being a potential hurricane developing in the Caribbean. Another being a strong La Nina developing in the Pacific Ocean.
What all this means for our sensible weather?
Current indications are that we will finally break our amazing summer of heat and humidity. Much cooler air is forecast to filter into the region over the coming weekend and into next week (and possibly the following week). Some of these changes are going to be dependent on the eventual path of Matthew (the tropical storm/hurricane forming in the Caribbean). Keep in mind that Matthew may or may not be the only game in town. There are indications that more than one system may develop. So Matthew may not be the system the GFS model is showing hitting Florida. Look for additional development in the Caribbean.
In order the cooler air to win out - though - we need for the tropical system to move up the east coast of the United States. So - there are definitely some factors that absolutely must come together in order for us to see a significant pattern shift. Lots to watch on the weather map in the coming days.
Forecast...
Today - windy - clouds will increase with the cold front and scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur along and ahead of the front. Not everyone will see rain (nothing new there). The front should move through the area by this evening and tonight. You can check regional and local radar on my weather observatory web-site. (you can hover over these links and click them)
Saturday will most likely be the pick day of the weekend. Sunday into early next week will be unsettled. Remember that cut-off low we talked about in the previous forecast post? Well - it looks like it will be forming over the Missouri Valley and will push through our region in the coming days. This will bring clouds and at least a chance for showers.
Let's take a look at the official five day rainfall forecast. This is issued by those on the national level - usually they broad brush the map. You get the general idea. Heavy rains to our west and east. Our area is expected to see some rain showers and light rain - possibly a few thunderstorms. Rainfall totals don't appear very impressive. Generally less than 0.25-0.50". Click for larger image.
The map below was produced by the Paducah, Kentucky National Weather Service Office. Click on map for larger view (click on any of the maps below for larger views)
The long range outlook for next week and into the first few days of October. Below normal temperatures and most likely below normal precipitation. The wild card will be the tropical weather moving through the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. If we can pull one of those systems into our region then we would see more appreciable rainfall. For now - we will stick with below normal precipitation and update accordingly.
I agree with Joe Bastardi and some others who are saying that the Caribbean is going to be primed for tropical development in the coming weeks. We see that Matthew has already developed (as expected - we have been talking about this potential for over a week). Waters are extremely warm in both the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. We are moving into the climatologically favored zone for development in the above mentioned areas. If that occurs then obviously the threats to the United States would increase. Something well worth watching.
A few forecast weather maps
Dramatic change in the overall wind flow - this map is the 500 mb level (high up in the atmosphere). You can see how the jet stream buckles and pushes south from Canada into our region. The bright reds and purple are strong winds. If this does occur then we can expect normal to below normal temperatures for a period of time. You will see the map is dated for the first part of October. A nice change from our heat and humidity.
This is a temperature forecast map for October 4th (above). Now keep in mind that long range models are not very good at capturing the details. However, you get the general idea - this model is predicting chilly temperatures as we move closer to the first few days of October. I doubt it will be this cold. The GFS model which is depicted here is notorious for showing temperatures too cold. But, at least it is showing much cooler air than we have experienced in some time. Again - let's hope it verifies. I know everyone is tired of the heat. The above maps were provided by http://www.wright-weather.com/.
One thing that is missing from the long range forecast data - rain. The drought may worsen. The wild card would be tropical activity that might move out of the Gulf of Mexico. Long shot - but something to keep in mind. No real changes from my early September thoughts on that subject.
Here is the latest 8-14 day precipitation outlook. Brown areas favor below normal precipitation. Remember this is a probability forecast. That means that odds favor below normal precipitation. Of interest is the above normal area on the east coast (green). That is because of the potential of a tropical storm or hurricane (at least one or two) influencing their weather.
Let's take a quick look at the very latest drought information. The drought monitor maps are showing parts of our region have been placed in severe drought conditions. The areas shaded in yellow and orange are extremely dry. Again click on the map for a larger view and/or visit the link above for more information.
Late night tonight - forecasting for the weekends events - not overly concerned about the severe weather potential. Few showers and storms with the cold front later today. Once again most of us will not receive rain. Scattered - at best. Best chances over the eastern half of the region. Also put some more thoughts together on the coming "cool down" - which I am sure will be appreciated.
Here is the latest official 8-14 day outlook. The blue is cooler than normal and orange/red is above normal. Now remember - please - that that means the odds favor above or below normal temperatures. It does not mean that every day will be above or below normal in the temperature department. It is a probability of being above or below normal. Odds favor normal to below normal for our region. Click image for large view.
When seasons change the weather models have a hard time adjusting. The coming weeks will likely bring unsettled weather to our region. Several major players are on the playing field. One being a potential hurricane developing in the Caribbean. Another being a strong La Nina developing in the Pacific Ocean.
What all this means for our sensible weather?
Current indications are that we will finally break our amazing summer of heat and humidity. Much cooler air is forecast to filter into the region over the coming weekend and into next week (and possibly the following week). Some of these changes are going to be dependent on the eventual path of Matthew (the tropical storm/hurricane forming in the Caribbean). Keep in mind that Matthew may or may not be the only game in town. There are indications that more than one system may develop. So Matthew may not be the system the GFS model is showing hitting Florida. Look for additional development in the Caribbean.
In order the cooler air to win out - though - we need for the tropical system to move up the east coast of the United States. So - there are definitely some factors that absolutely must come together in order for us to see a significant pattern shift. Lots to watch on the weather map in the coming days.
Forecast...
Today - windy - clouds will increase with the cold front and scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur along and ahead of the front. Not everyone will see rain (nothing new there). The front should move through the area by this evening and tonight. You can check regional and local radar on my weather observatory web-site. (you can hover over these links and click them)
Saturday will most likely be the pick day of the weekend. Sunday into early next week will be unsettled. Remember that cut-off low we talked about in the previous forecast post? Well - it looks like it will be forming over the Missouri Valley and will push through our region in the coming days. This will bring clouds and at least a chance for showers.
Let's take a look at the official five day rainfall forecast. This is issued by those on the national level - usually they broad brush the map. You get the general idea. Heavy rains to our west and east. Our area is expected to see some rain showers and light rain - possibly a few thunderstorms. Rainfall totals don't appear very impressive. Generally less than 0.25-0.50". Click for larger image.
The map below was produced by the Paducah, Kentucky National Weather Service Office. Click on map for larger view (click on any of the maps below for larger views)
The long range outlook for next week and into the first few days of October. Below normal temperatures and most likely below normal precipitation. The wild card will be the tropical weather moving through the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. If we can pull one of those systems into our region then we would see more appreciable rainfall. For now - we will stick with below normal precipitation and update accordingly.
I agree with Joe Bastardi and some others who are saying that the Caribbean is going to be primed for tropical development in the coming weeks. We see that Matthew has already developed (as expected - we have been talking about this potential for over a week). Waters are extremely warm in both the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. We are moving into the climatologically favored zone for development in the above mentioned areas. If that occurs then obviously the threats to the United States would increase. Something well worth watching.
A few forecast weather maps
Dramatic change in the overall wind flow - this map is the 500 mb level (high up in the atmosphere). You can see how the jet stream buckles and pushes south from Canada into our region. The bright reds and purple are strong winds. If this does occur then we can expect normal to below normal temperatures for a period of time. You will see the map is dated for the first part of October. A nice change from our heat and humidity.
This is a temperature forecast map for October 4th (above). Now keep in mind that long range models are not very good at capturing the details. However, you get the general idea - this model is predicting chilly temperatures as we move closer to the first few days of October. I doubt it will be this cold. The GFS model which is depicted here is notorious for showing temperatures too cold. But, at least it is showing much cooler air than we have experienced in some time. Again - let's hope it verifies. I know everyone is tired of the heat. The above maps were provided by http://www.wright-weather.com/.
One thing that is missing from the long range forecast data - rain. The drought may worsen. The wild card would be tropical activity that might move out of the Gulf of Mexico. Long shot - but something to keep in mind. No real changes from my early September thoughts on that subject.
Here is the latest 8-14 day precipitation outlook. Brown areas favor below normal precipitation. Remember this is a probability forecast. That means that odds favor below normal precipitation. Of interest is the above normal area on the east coast (green). That is because of the potential of a tropical storm or hurricane (at least one or two) influencing their weather.
Let's take a quick look at the very latest drought information. The drought monitor maps are showing parts of our region have been placed in severe drought conditions. The areas shaded in yellow and orange are extremely dry. Again click on the map for a larger view and/or visit the link above for more information.
September 22, 2010: First day of fall - unsettled pattern ahead
September 22, 2010:
Remember for quick updates you can catch me on Facebook and Twitter (just search under my name Beau Dodson)
First off - let me just comment on the Sunday into Tuesday weather. There is debate surrounding the development of a cut off low over the Ohio Valley (cut off lows usually bring lots of clouds and light precipitation with them - cooler temperatures, as well). If this feature forms then there will be a better chance for clouds and possibly rain during the Sunday afternoon into Monday/Tuesday time period. There is basically no model agreement on this feature. Which means there is a lot of uncertainty as to what eventually develops. Something to watch in the coming days.
Below you will see one of the forecast models that I use to make my forecast. The GFS (from www.wright-weather.com). The pink/purple/blue areas are rainfall. You can see the low pressure area over our region and quite a bit of precipitation. IF this verifies then obviously the Sunday into Tuesday official forecast from the NWS (and they have already commented on this subject, as well in their area forecast discussion) will need to be changed. So - if you have weekend plans (especially Sunday) then you might want to check back. Click image for larger view.
Welcome to Fall (which begins later today). We have been in meteorological fall since September 1st (meteorologist consider fall to be from the first of September through the end of November). If you don't have a NOAA Weather Radio then you should get one! Severe weather can occur in our region during every season of the year. Fall and winter is no different. You can click on the NOAA Weather Radio link on my home page - here.
Up to this point, September has behaved just about as forecast. We discussed the potential for above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall - with the wild card being tropical threats. We did receive beneficial rainfall from the remnants of Hermine. Because of this tropical system we added quite a bit of rain to the gauge earlier in the month (over 4 inches here at my location). Otherwise, it has been quite dry across our region.
Temperatures this week have been WELL above normal. I recorded a high temperature of 97 on Tuesday. Almost a record. Quite amazing. Many counties in southern Illinois,southern Indiana, and western Kentucky recorded temperatures in the middle to upper 90s. Unusual to say the least.
Drought conditions continue to spread across more and more territory over the central and eastern United States. The map below shows the September 14, 2010 drought monitor data. The areas in yellow and brown are in need of rain. More information can be viewed at their web-site here. You can also read the drought forecast from NOAA by clicking here.
As we head into the next 6-10 day period it appears that we will experience at least one or two cold fronts and the potential for a cut-off low later this weekend (which would mean some clouds). I am also watching the potential for a tropical storm or hurricane to form in the Caribbean. This system will likely impact portions of Central America and Mexico later this week and weekend and then has the potential to move north into the Gulf of Mexico next week (or a second system could form behind Matthew - some debate on how this plays out). Still some time to watch the formation of this system. You can visit the National Hurricane Center web-site for updated tropical forecasts.
Here are some of the forecast tracks for this future tropical system - assuming it does develop then it will be named Matthew. Forecast tracks below (click for larger image)
One item of note (before we talk about our local weather) - you can see the long range GFS Model (from http://www.wright-weather.com/) bringing a hurricane into the Gulf of Mexico during the first part of October (still plenty of time to keep an eye on this potential system). The data has indicated this for multiple runs (more than 40 runs). So - this is a concern. Keep in mind that this map is a forecast map - this is what one model believes will happen. There are many different models (in other words this isn't written in stone). I believe there could be several tropical systems threaten the United States over the next several weeks (see comments below). Click image for a larger view.
Overall the pattern is shifting towards a greater threat for tropical development in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Much of this tropical season has developed systems that either pushed out to sea or impacted far southern Texas and Mexico. Several national forecasters have addressed this subject over the last two weeks. Most data indicates that the next 4-6 week period will bring favorable conditions for tropical development anywhere from the eastern part of the Caribbean into and through the Gulf of Mexico. So - an enhanced threat for U.S. impacts. Something to watch.
Back to our local weather...
Today and tomorrow will bring a few scattered showers and thunderstorms (as has been the case the last few days) to our region. Data actually indicates quite a bit of lift around today - especially across then northern half of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois - to help form those showers and storms. Above normal temperatures, as well. You can view your local radar by clicking here.
A cold front will approach and push through our region on Friday and Friday night. A few showers and thunderstorms are expected along the front. Models are not painting much in the way of heavy precipitation. I don't believe everyone will experience rain (about like the last few months - hit and miss). Severe weather threat appears low. This cold front will bring cooler air (relatively speaking) into our region for the weekend. Lower humidity levels, as well. It will at least feel a bit more like fall.
Your seven day forecast can be viewed here - issued by the National Weather Service. Enter your state/city/zip code for your local area. Keep in mind that there is some debate on how the upcoming weekend pans out. So - check back for updates. If this cut off low does develop them we will have to add clouds and precipitation into the forecast - which appears quite likely.
Below are two models that I use (the NAM and the GFS from http://www.wright-weather.com/) - you can see the front by the area of purple on the map. The pink/purple area would be the precipitation totals (blue would be heavier precipitation). Click image for large view (keep in mind that these maps are just showing the Friday event and don't include the potential cut off low later in the weekend)
NAM (above) - one model - light precip painted along the cold front on Friday
GFS (above) - another model of choice. Shows a bit of precip along the cold front (Friday)
There are still some questions as to how the rest of weekend will turn out weather-wise. Quite a bit of data indicates the potential for a cut-off low to develop over the Ohio Valley. If this does form then clouds and rain may need to be introduced into the forecast for Sunday and Monday. For now we will just keep an eye on it. I know there are quite of few outdoor activities this weekend (including the BBQ Festival in Paducah).
Although the last few weeks have brought above normal temperatures - next week should bring temperatures that are closer to normal. The latest official National Weather Service 8-14 day outlook actually indicates that odds favor normal to below normal temperatures. Something we have not seen in quite some time.
Click image for larger view.
8-14 Day Temperature Outlook (blue shaded areas favor below normal temperatures).
Meanwhile the long range temperature maps (from one source - there are multiple sources) still have not changed their tune concerning the coming 4-6 month period. Most data indicates above normal temperatures as we push into the fall and winter months. That does NOT mean we will have a mild winter - it just means that the odds favor above normal temperatures (see my fall forecast for more details). Click maps for larger view (red shaded areas would favor above normal temps and blue would favor below normal temps).
September through November Temperature Outlook (above)
December through February Temperature Outlook (above)
And for those interested in La Nina (Pacific Ocean waters are below normal). The potential is there for a strong La Nina this fall and winter (the current development is amazing - near record drop). The map above shows the dramatic drop in sea surface temperatures. We were in an El Nino pattern - but not any more. The drop below the zero line indicates La Nina. This could have profound implications on our winter weather (see the fall forecast link I posted above).
And finally (are you tired of maps?) here is the latest October outlook from the National Weather Service - it indicates that odds favor above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.
Temperature forecast map (above) for October (red/orange is above normal temps - odds favor)
October precipitation outlook (above). Brown favors below normal precipitation. Keep in mind the tropical wild cards that I talk about from time to time. If we can bring a tropical storm or hurricane into the Gulf of Mexico then the potential for heavy rainfall events will increase in our region - depending on storm track (same as what happened earlier this month - imagine how dry it would be right now had we not received the remnants of Hermine).
- Beau Dodson
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
Remember for quick updates you can catch me on Facebook and Twitter (just search under my name Beau Dodson)
First off - let me just comment on the Sunday into Tuesday weather. There is debate surrounding the development of a cut off low over the Ohio Valley (cut off lows usually bring lots of clouds and light precipitation with them - cooler temperatures, as well). If this feature forms then there will be a better chance for clouds and possibly rain during the Sunday afternoon into Monday/Tuesday time period. There is basically no model agreement on this feature. Which means there is a lot of uncertainty as to what eventually develops. Something to watch in the coming days.
Below you will see one of the forecast models that I use to make my forecast. The GFS (from www.wright-weather.com). The pink/purple/blue areas are rainfall. You can see the low pressure area over our region and quite a bit of precipitation. IF this verifies then obviously the Sunday into Tuesday official forecast from the NWS (and they have already commented on this subject, as well in their area forecast discussion) will need to be changed. So - if you have weekend plans (especially Sunday) then you might want to check back. Click image for larger view.
Welcome to Fall (which begins later today). We have been in meteorological fall since September 1st (meteorologist consider fall to be from the first of September through the end of November). If you don't have a NOAA Weather Radio then you should get one! Severe weather can occur in our region during every season of the year. Fall and winter is no different. You can click on the NOAA Weather Radio link on my home page - here.
Up to this point, September has behaved just about as forecast. We discussed the potential for above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall - with the wild card being tropical threats. We did receive beneficial rainfall from the remnants of Hermine. Because of this tropical system we added quite a bit of rain to the gauge earlier in the month (over 4 inches here at my location). Otherwise, it has been quite dry across our region.
Temperatures this week have been WELL above normal. I recorded a high temperature of 97 on Tuesday. Almost a record. Quite amazing. Many counties in southern Illinois,southern Indiana, and western Kentucky recorded temperatures in the middle to upper 90s. Unusual to say the least.
Drought conditions continue to spread across more and more territory over the central and eastern United States. The map below shows the September 14, 2010 drought monitor data. The areas in yellow and brown are in need of rain. More information can be viewed at their web-site here. You can also read the drought forecast from NOAA by clicking here.
As we head into the next 6-10 day period it appears that we will experience at least one or two cold fronts and the potential for a cut-off low later this weekend (which would mean some clouds). I am also watching the potential for a tropical storm or hurricane to form in the Caribbean. This system will likely impact portions of Central America and Mexico later this week and weekend and then has the potential to move north into the Gulf of Mexico next week (or a second system could form behind Matthew - some debate on how this plays out). Still some time to watch the formation of this system. You can visit the National Hurricane Center web-site for updated tropical forecasts.
Here are some of the forecast tracks for this future tropical system - assuming it does develop then it will be named Matthew. Forecast tracks below (click for larger image)
One item of note (before we talk about our local weather) - you can see the long range GFS Model (from http://www.wright-weather.com/) bringing a hurricane into the Gulf of Mexico during the first part of October (still plenty of time to keep an eye on this potential system). The data has indicated this for multiple runs (more than 40 runs). So - this is a concern. Keep in mind that this map is a forecast map - this is what one model believes will happen. There are many different models (in other words this isn't written in stone). I believe there could be several tropical systems threaten the United States over the next several weeks (see comments below). Click image for a larger view.
Overall the pattern is shifting towards a greater threat for tropical development in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Much of this tropical season has developed systems that either pushed out to sea or impacted far southern Texas and Mexico. Several national forecasters have addressed this subject over the last two weeks. Most data indicates that the next 4-6 week period will bring favorable conditions for tropical development anywhere from the eastern part of the Caribbean into and through the Gulf of Mexico. So - an enhanced threat for U.S. impacts. Something to watch.
Back to our local weather...
Today and tomorrow will bring a few scattered showers and thunderstorms (as has been the case the last few days) to our region. Data actually indicates quite a bit of lift around today - especially across then northern half of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois - to help form those showers and storms. Above normal temperatures, as well. You can view your local radar by clicking here.
A cold front will approach and push through our region on Friday and Friday night. A few showers and thunderstorms are expected along the front. Models are not painting much in the way of heavy precipitation. I don't believe everyone will experience rain (about like the last few months - hit and miss). Severe weather threat appears low. This cold front will bring cooler air (relatively speaking) into our region for the weekend. Lower humidity levels, as well. It will at least feel a bit more like fall.
Your seven day forecast can be viewed here - issued by the National Weather Service. Enter your state/city/zip code for your local area. Keep in mind that there is some debate on how the upcoming weekend pans out. So - check back for updates. If this cut off low does develop them we will have to add clouds and precipitation into the forecast - which appears quite likely.
Below are two models that I use (the NAM and the GFS from http://www.wright-weather.com/) - you can see the front by the area of purple on the map. The pink/purple area would be the precipitation totals (blue would be heavier precipitation). Click image for large view (keep in mind that these maps are just showing the Friday event and don't include the potential cut off low later in the weekend)
NAM (above) - one model - light precip painted along the cold front on Friday
GFS (above) - another model of choice. Shows a bit of precip along the cold front (Friday)
There are still some questions as to how the rest of weekend will turn out weather-wise. Quite a bit of data indicates the potential for a cut-off low to develop over the Ohio Valley. If this does form then clouds and rain may need to be introduced into the forecast for Sunday and Monday. For now we will just keep an eye on it. I know there are quite of few outdoor activities this weekend (including the BBQ Festival in Paducah).
Although the last few weeks have brought above normal temperatures - next week should bring temperatures that are closer to normal. The latest official National Weather Service 8-14 day outlook actually indicates that odds favor normal to below normal temperatures. Something we have not seen in quite some time.
Click image for larger view.
8-14 Day Temperature Outlook (blue shaded areas favor below normal temperatures).
Meanwhile the long range temperature maps (from one source - there are multiple sources) still have not changed their tune concerning the coming 4-6 month period. Most data indicates above normal temperatures as we push into the fall and winter months. That does NOT mean we will have a mild winter - it just means that the odds favor above normal temperatures (see my fall forecast for more details). Click maps for larger view (red shaded areas would favor above normal temps and blue would favor below normal temps).
September through November Temperature Outlook (above)
December through February Temperature Outlook (above)
And for those interested in La Nina (Pacific Ocean waters are below normal). The potential is there for a strong La Nina this fall and winter (the current development is amazing - near record drop). The map above shows the dramatic drop in sea surface temperatures. We were in an El Nino pattern - but not any more. The drop below the zero line indicates La Nina. This could have profound implications on our winter weather (see the fall forecast link I posted above).
And finally (are you tired of maps?) here is the latest October outlook from the National Weather Service - it indicates that odds favor above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.
Temperature forecast map (above) for October (red/orange is above normal temps - odds favor)
October precipitation outlook (above). Brown favors below normal precipitation. Keep in mind the tropical wild cards that I talk about from time to time. If we can bring a tropical storm or hurricane into the Gulf of Mexico then the potential for heavy rainfall events will increase in our region - depending on storm track (same as what happened earlier this month - imagine how dry it would be right now had we not received the remnants of Hermine).
- Beau Dodson
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
September 20, 2010: Warm week ahead - watching tropics
September 20, 2010:
Our above to much above normal temperatures continue. This will verify my September outlook - now we have to get through October and November. We will see how it all averages out.
For this week expect temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Average temperatures are in the middle 80s. So, a warm week is in store for the entire region. Dry, as well. No surprise there.
Keeping a close eye on the potential for tropical development (a moderate risk) in the Caribbean. The system would then move into the Gulf of Mexico (after impacting portions of Central America and Mexico) or perhaps as far east as Florida. Lot of debate on if the storm and track - assuming it will develop. Something to keep an eye on. This pattern is ripe for development and a continuation of the active tropical theme. And conditions are becoming more favorable for a U.S. hit.
September has been extremely active in the tropics. If we see a couple of more systems develop then it would rank in the top 2 or 3 for most active Septembers on record. Quite amazing.
Otherwise - for our region - watching for a cold front around Friday night and Saturday. Could bring a chance for showers and a bit cooler air into the local area. A break from the heat? Would be nice.
- Beau
Our above to much above normal temperatures continue. This will verify my September outlook - now we have to get through October and November. We will see how it all averages out.
For this week expect temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Average temperatures are in the middle 80s. So, a warm week is in store for the entire region. Dry, as well. No surprise there.
Keeping a close eye on the potential for tropical development (a moderate risk) in the Caribbean. The system would then move into the Gulf of Mexico (after impacting portions of Central America and Mexico) or perhaps as far east as Florida. Lot of debate on if the storm and track - assuming it will develop. Something to keep an eye on. This pattern is ripe for development and a continuation of the active tropical theme. And conditions are becoming more favorable for a U.S. hit.
September has been extremely active in the tropics. If we see a couple of more systems develop then it would rank in the top 2 or 3 for most active Septembers on record. Quite amazing.
Otherwise - for our region - watching for a cold front around Friday night and Saturday. Could bring a chance for showers and a bit cooler air into the local area. A break from the heat? Would be nice.
- Beau
September 18, 2010: Thunderstorms near the northern part of our region
September 18, 2010:
A few thunderstorms have crept into the northern part of our region - towards St Louis to Mt Vernon. These showers and storms are moving east/southeast. They are not expected to reach our immediate local counties. Some cloud debris will likely be left over for tomorrow morning - especially across parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
- Beau
A few thunderstorms have crept into the northern part of our region - towards St Louis to Mt Vernon. These showers and storms are moving east/southeast. They are not expected to reach our immediate local counties. Some cloud debris will likely be left over for tomorrow morning - especially across parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
- Beau
September 17, 2010: Beautiful Friday and weekend ahead
September 17, 2010:
I posted a few maps last night concerning the drought and tropics (see previous post).
A beautiful Friday is on tap for the region. I don't think I will hear any complaints from all you weather fans. The weekend should also be nice. Enjoy the sun and warm temperatures.
The Paducah, Kentucky National Weather Service Office has issued a statement concerning the dry weather. You can read that by clicking here.
Have a nice weekend.
- Meteorologist Beau Dodson
I posted a few maps last night concerning the drought and tropics (see previous post).
A beautiful Friday is on tap for the region. I don't think I will hear any complaints from all you weather fans. The weekend should also be nice. Enjoy the sun and warm temperatures.
The Paducah, Kentucky National Weather Service Office has issued a statement concerning the dry weather. You can read that by clicking here.
Have a nice weekend.
- Meteorologist Beau Dodson
September 16, 2010: Beautiful days ahead
September 16, 2010:
Well, our overnight rainfall turned out as expected. Nothing exciting. The best coverage was across the western half of the region. I recorded a whopping 0.08". The drought continues - at least we did receive the remnants of Tropical Storm Hermine.
Dry weather is expected today - couldn't rule out a sprinkle or two. Friday looks amazing. Lower humidity and nice temperatures. The weekend will be warm - but nice.
Next week should bring above normal temperatures. It appears the first month of the fall forecast will verify. Above normal temperatures. Hermine might end up causing some of us to be above normal in the rainfall department. But, we included the tropical threat as a wild card.
The drought conditions across the region - it has been spreading over the last few weeks. You can view the latest drought monitor map below. Click image for large view.
I am starting to become more concerned about tropical threats to the U.S. mainland in the coming weeks. There is a significant risk for impact. The models are on top of this and I see that Joe Bastardi has mentioned the threat in his daily briefings. See no reason to disagree.
Here is a view of Hurricane Igor - this is a forecast model that indicates the storm will strike Bermuda. Click for large image view.
- Beau
Well, our overnight rainfall turned out as expected. Nothing exciting. The best coverage was across the western half of the region. I recorded a whopping 0.08". The drought continues - at least we did receive the remnants of Tropical Storm Hermine.
Dry weather is expected today - couldn't rule out a sprinkle or two. Friday looks amazing. Lower humidity and nice temperatures. The weekend will be warm - but nice.
Next week should bring above normal temperatures. It appears the first month of the fall forecast will verify. Above normal temperatures. Hermine might end up causing some of us to be above normal in the rainfall department. But, we included the tropical threat as a wild card.
The drought conditions across the region - it has been spreading over the last few weeks. You can view the latest drought monitor map below. Click image for large view.
I am starting to become more concerned about tropical threats to the U.S. mainland in the coming weeks. There is a significant risk for impact. The models are on top of this and I see that Joe Bastardi has mentioned the threat in his daily briefings. See no reason to disagree.
Here is a view of Hurricane Igor - this is a forecast model that indicates the storm will strike Bermuda. Click for large image view.
- Beau
September 15, 2010: Showers and storm chances tonight
September 15, 2010:
A cold front will push into our region tonight and on Thursday morning. Showers and thunderstorms have formed ahead of the front. Expect these showers and storms to push into our local counties during the late evening and into the morning hours. A few rumbles of thunder will occur. Severe weather is not expected.
For those fortunate enough to receive some rainfall you can expect amount less than 1/2" (and that is being generous).
NOAA has released its fall drought forecast - click image for large view:
For more information click here.
- Beau
A cold front will push into our region tonight and on Thursday morning. Showers and thunderstorms have formed ahead of the front. Expect these showers and storms to push into our local counties during the late evening and into the morning hours. A few rumbles of thunder will occur. Severe weather is not expected.
For those fortunate enough to receive some rainfall you can expect amount less than 1/2" (and that is being generous).
NOAA has released its fall drought forecast - click image for large view:
For more information click here.
- Beau
September 14, 2010: Chance of rain on Wednesday night/Thursday - look ahead
September 14, 2010:
You can read my fall thoughts (and one update) by clicking the links on the top right side of this page. I will update the fall forecast as needed. Remember that fall is defined as September, October, and November - for meteorological purposes. I will also post monthly verification.
A quick look at the sensible weather for the coming days...
Clouds have spread over our region this morning - this is in response to what was a large area of showers and thunderstorms that impacted parts of Iowa, Kansas, and Missouri overnight.
A frontal system will approach our local counties on Wednesday night and move through our area on Thursday. There will be a chance for showers and storms on Wednesday night (most likely after 3 am) and this threat will continue into Thursday morning. Rainfall totals of 0.25-0.50" will be possible. Not everyone will experience rain. As has been the case for the last few months.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a slight risk area for parts of the Ohio Valley. A slight risk means there could be a few severe thunderstorms - mostly to our northeast and east. You can visit their web-site for more information.
Friday will be nice - less humid. We are expecting a warm up as we move deeper into the weekend and into next week. Much above normal temperatures are expected. Nearly half of September has been above normal in the temperature department.
I am keeping a close eye on a tropical system located in the Caribbean. This system is likely going to develop or has already developed into a tropical storm (looks great on satellite). The system will track across the Yucatan and into the Bay of Campeche. A second landfall will likely occur in Mexico. There could be some impact on southern Texas. Depending on the eventual track and development.
The coming weeks will continue to bring tropical threats. Active period - will continue. I have been discussing this for over a month now on my updates. Most forecasters have been in agreement on an active tropical season.
There are some hints of a "fall like" system for our region towards the end of next week. Not a lot of guidance (guidance means model data) agreement on the subject - so for now we will just keep an eye on the trends. This could, however, mean that we see a dramatic cool down late next weekend. Again - low confidence. I will attach a map showing what one of the models are showing. You will see a large high pressure system coming out of Canada and a deep low in the lakes. See map below.
For your local seven day forecast - click here. Remember that this forecast is issued by the National Weather Service Office out of Paducah, Kentucky. You can read my forecast thoughts on this blog or follow me on Facebook (under Beau Dodson).
You can always check radar and/or current conditions by clicking on the Weather Observatory web-site. Click here.
A couple of maps for your viewing pleasure :)
Map for next weekend (GFS Model) - map used with permission from http://www.wright-weather.com/ (click for larger image)
The above image is a weather map - the way the model thinks the weather map will look towards the end of next week. The big H coming down from Canada is high pressure. The wound up storm in the Great Lakes would be an area of low pressure. The pink and purple colors indicate where precipitation is likely. This map basically shows a deep "fall like" storm in the Great Lakes. That would mean a big cold front through our local area and a dramatic cool down (possibly severe storms in the central United States). However, that is 8-10 days away. So, confidence is low. Models are not perfect - far from perfect! But, we will watch the trends. I noticed Meteorologist Jim Rasor mentioned this subject on his latest twitter/facebook post.
The map above shows your the percent of normal precipitation that we have received so far this month. Can you track the remnants of Tropical Storm Hermine? The purple area is above normal precipitation percentage. You can see the system tracked (remember this is showing what has already occurred) through Texas and into our region. We should be thankful we received rainfall from this system. Otherwise our drought would be even worse. Anyway, I thought this was an interesting map and shows you how big of an impact tropical weather can have on our local region.
Finally, I wanted to remind everyone that our region usually experiences a second peak in severe weather as we move into the fall months (although severe weather can and has occurred year round - all twelve months). So, as we head into fall we could experience severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. We may see an active late fall and winter (see my fall forecast thoughts).
- Beau Dodson
You can read my fall thoughts (and one update) by clicking the links on the top right side of this page. I will update the fall forecast as needed. Remember that fall is defined as September, October, and November - for meteorological purposes. I will also post monthly verification.
A quick look at the sensible weather for the coming days...
Clouds have spread over our region this morning - this is in response to what was a large area of showers and thunderstorms that impacted parts of Iowa, Kansas, and Missouri overnight.
A frontal system will approach our local counties on Wednesday night and move through our area on Thursday. There will be a chance for showers and storms on Wednesday night (most likely after 3 am) and this threat will continue into Thursday morning. Rainfall totals of 0.25-0.50" will be possible. Not everyone will experience rain. As has been the case for the last few months.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a slight risk area for parts of the Ohio Valley. A slight risk means there could be a few severe thunderstorms - mostly to our northeast and east. You can visit their web-site for more information.
Friday will be nice - less humid. We are expecting a warm up as we move deeper into the weekend and into next week. Much above normal temperatures are expected. Nearly half of September has been above normal in the temperature department.
I am keeping a close eye on a tropical system located in the Caribbean. This system is likely going to develop or has already developed into a tropical storm (looks great on satellite). The system will track across the Yucatan and into the Bay of Campeche. A second landfall will likely occur in Mexico. There could be some impact on southern Texas. Depending on the eventual track and development.
The coming weeks will continue to bring tropical threats. Active period - will continue. I have been discussing this for over a month now on my updates. Most forecasters have been in agreement on an active tropical season.
There are some hints of a "fall like" system for our region towards the end of next week. Not a lot of guidance (guidance means model data) agreement on the subject - so for now we will just keep an eye on the trends. This could, however, mean that we see a dramatic cool down late next weekend. Again - low confidence. I will attach a map showing what one of the models are showing. You will see a large high pressure system coming out of Canada and a deep low in the lakes. See map below.
For your local seven day forecast - click here. Remember that this forecast is issued by the National Weather Service Office out of Paducah, Kentucky. You can read my forecast thoughts on this blog or follow me on Facebook (under Beau Dodson).
You can always check radar and/or current conditions by clicking on the Weather Observatory web-site. Click here.
A couple of maps for your viewing pleasure :)
Map for next weekend (GFS Model) - map used with permission from http://www.wright-weather.com/ (click for larger image)
The above image is a weather map - the way the model thinks the weather map will look towards the end of next week. The big H coming down from Canada is high pressure. The wound up storm in the Great Lakes would be an area of low pressure. The pink and purple colors indicate where precipitation is likely. This map basically shows a deep "fall like" storm in the Great Lakes. That would mean a big cold front through our local area and a dramatic cool down (possibly severe storms in the central United States). However, that is 8-10 days away. So, confidence is low. Models are not perfect - far from perfect! But, we will watch the trends. I noticed Meteorologist Jim Rasor mentioned this subject on his latest twitter/facebook post.
The map above shows your the percent of normal precipitation that we have received so far this month. Can you track the remnants of Tropical Storm Hermine? The purple area is above normal precipitation percentage. You can see the system tracked (remember this is showing what has already occurred) through Texas and into our region. We should be thankful we received rainfall from this system. Otherwise our drought would be even worse. Anyway, I thought this was an interesting map and shows you how big of an impact tropical weather can have on our local region.
Finally, I wanted to remind everyone that our region usually experiences a second peak in severe weather as we move into the fall months (although severe weather can and has occurred year round - all twelve months). So, as we head into fall we could experience severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. We may see an active late fall and winter (see my fall forecast thoughts).
- Beau Dodson
September 13, 2010: Beautiful
September 13, 2010:
Covered everything in yesterday's blog posting. Today will be beautiful. Temperatures in the 80s with plenty of sunshine. Enjoy.
Look for much above normal temperatures as we get further into the upcoming weekend and next week. September will end up above normal in the temperature department - or so it appears. This would verify the first month of the fall outlook. The precipitation values could be above normal, though. This is because of our tropical system that moved through last week. Remember that the tropics were our wild card for receiving precipitation.
- Beau Dodson
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
Covered everything in yesterday's blog posting. Today will be beautiful. Temperatures in the 80s with plenty of sunshine. Enjoy.
Look for much above normal temperatures as we get further into the upcoming weekend and next week. September will end up above normal in the temperature department - or so it appears. This would verify the first month of the fall outlook. The precipitation values could be above normal, though. This is because of our tropical system that moved through last week. Remember that the tropics were our wild card for receiving precipitation.
- Beau Dodson
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
September 12, 2010: What a beautiful day! Some long range thoughts, as well.
September 12, 2010:
Note - on the long range comments below - pasted from my previous fall outlook posting.
Keep in mind that it only takes one big snow or ice event for the public to perceive the winter as being "severe, extreme, or bad." Just because we may experience above normal temperatures this winter does not mean we won't see extreme swings. I am not a huge fan of long range outlooks. However, a lot of people do show interest in the subject.
Also - as we look ahead to the winter months - above normal temperatures don't always equate to a mild winter.
End of previous comments...
Today
I have nothing bad to say about the weather. It is a beautiful day in the tri-state area. Temperatures will be near normal and the sun will be shining. Can't complain about that forecast.
The cold front on Saturday passed through our immediate local counties without much fanfare. A few showers and storms were reported over the western half of the area and southern half. The Carbondale to Paducah area remained dry. Severe storms developed to our east in central and eastern Kentucky.
The next threat for showers will not arrive until late in the week.
We have a new hurricane and a new tropical depression. The tropics are busy! At this time none of these are a threat to the United States. However, there could be significant flooding in Central America. Still quite a bit of time to watch each area of disturbed weather. There are some indications that this system could move further north than numerical guidance is indicating. If this indeed is the case then we could have a tropical threat in the Gulf of Mexico. Click here for more information on the tropics.
There are a lot of indicators that the coming weeks will bring above normal tropical activity. Several more hurricanes are likely to form in the Atlantic basin and several of those will likely become major hurricanes.
NOAA reports that this past summer was the fourth warmest on record. That report covers the entire nation - not just our local area.
You can read more about the report by clicking here.
To read more about our local region (summer data) then please visit the Paducah, Kentucky National Weather Service web-site - click here.
The latest 8-14 day outlook has been released - matches up with my fall forecast. At least so far (we all know that mother nature is fickle)! Fall is defined as September through November. Above normal temperatures are forecast and fairly dry conditions.
Above: Your 8-14 day temperature outlook - click for larger image
Above: Your 8-14 day precipitation outlook - click for larger image
Also the drought is spreading across the entire region into the southern United States. Yes, the recent rains did help. However, we need to see rain consistently for a few weeks in order to break the drought across the entire region. The remnants of tropical storm Hermine certainly helped.
The latest drought monitor map - below - click image for a larger view:
And I also have just received the latest long range outlook. Keep in mind that this is just one indicator of how the fall and winter months might unfold. There are many factors that can change or influence the eventual outcome. Also remember that even though we might be above normal in the temperature department that does NOT mean that we won't have snow or ice - or even some wicked cold waves. Just keep that in mind!
Weather is made up of extremes. The big/bad winters that most of us remember are normally made up of one or two big snow or ice events. So, you could conceivably have a fairly decent winter (in the temperature department) and still end up with a significant snowstorm or ice storm. Thus is weather!
And - as those who follow the blog know - sometimes the short term forecast doesn't even pan out correctly. Last weeks heavy rains is just one example. We received twice as much rainfall as expected. Although I did leave open the possibility of that happening. I still considered it a poor forecast.
But, with that said - I will share the updated maps below.
Latest maps - click for large image (red is above normal temperatures - blue is below normal temperatures)
First map is September through November (below):
Second map is December through February (below):
The third map is for March through May (below):
Also note the RAGING La Nina - this could be a significant La Nina event. The La Nina is noted by the blue colors in the Pacific Ocean basin. Below normal water temperatures (El Nino would be above normal temperatures).
Below: Sea surface water temperatures - click for larger image (this is quite amazing from a meteorological stand point)
And finally - I will throw one more map into the mix. The precipitation forecast - continues to indicate a wet winter for our region. There are a lot of other areas that are below normal. So, confidence in this map would be quite low. However, La Nina's do typically create wet winters in our region. Snow, ice, thunderstorms, and rain. Severe weather events, as well.
Below: Precipitation forecast - blue is above normal and red is below normal precipitation. Click image for a larger view.
The maps above were supplied by the JAMSTEC - Indian Ocean Dipole web-site - that can be viewed here.
El Nino index - this chart shows the current state of La Nina - we just came off of an El Nino. I believe this is one of the steeper drops in recorded history.
And for good measure - let me throw one more map into the ring (below). This CAS map shows December - above normal temperatures and much above normal precipitation. For what it is worth (click image to enlarge)
Now back to reality - short term. :) Your seven day forecast can be viewed here.
Have a nice week
- Beau Dodson
Note - on the long range comments below - pasted from my previous fall outlook posting.
Keep in mind that it only takes one big snow or ice event for the public to perceive the winter as being "severe, extreme, or bad." Just because we may experience above normal temperatures this winter does not mean we won't see extreme swings. I am not a huge fan of long range outlooks. However, a lot of people do show interest in the subject.
Also - as we look ahead to the winter months - above normal temperatures don't always equate to a mild winter.
End of previous comments...
Today
I have nothing bad to say about the weather. It is a beautiful day in the tri-state area. Temperatures will be near normal and the sun will be shining. Can't complain about that forecast.
The cold front on Saturday passed through our immediate local counties without much fanfare. A few showers and storms were reported over the western half of the area and southern half. The Carbondale to Paducah area remained dry. Severe storms developed to our east in central and eastern Kentucky.
The next threat for showers will not arrive until late in the week.
We have a new hurricane and a new tropical depression. The tropics are busy! At this time none of these are a threat to the United States. However, there could be significant flooding in Central America. Still quite a bit of time to watch each area of disturbed weather. There are some indications that this system could move further north than numerical guidance is indicating. If this indeed is the case then we could have a tropical threat in the Gulf of Mexico. Click here for more information on the tropics.
There are a lot of indicators that the coming weeks will bring above normal tropical activity. Several more hurricanes are likely to form in the Atlantic basin and several of those will likely become major hurricanes.
NOAA reports that this past summer was the fourth warmest on record. That report covers the entire nation - not just our local area.
You can read more about the report by clicking here.
To read more about our local region (summer data) then please visit the Paducah, Kentucky National Weather Service web-site - click here.
The latest 8-14 day outlook has been released - matches up with my fall forecast. At least so far (we all know that mother nature is fickle)! Fall is defined as September through November. Above normal temperatures are forecast and fairly dry conditions.
Above: Your 8-14 day temperature outlook - click for larger image
Above: Your 8-14 day precipitation outlook - click for larger image
Also the drought is spreading across the entire region into the southern United States. Yes, the recent rains did help. However, we need to see rain consistently for a few weeks in order to break the drought across the entire region. The remnants of tropical storm Hermine certainly helped.
The latest drought monitor map - below - click image for a larger view:
And I also have just received the latest long range outlook. Keep in mind that this is just one indicator of how the fall and winter months might unfold. There are many factors that can change or influence the eventual outcome. Also remember that even though we might be above normal in the temperature department that does NOT mean that we won't have snow or ice - or even some wicked cold waves. Just keep that in mind!
Weather is made up of extremes. The big/bad winters that most of us remember are normally made up of one or two big snow or ice events. So, you could conceivably have a fairly decent winter (in the temperature department) and still end up with a significant snowstorm or ice storm. Thus is weather!
And - as those who follow the blog know - sometimes the short term forecast doesn't even pan out correctly. Last weeks heavy rains is just one example. We received twice as much rainfall as expected. Although I did leave open the possibility of that happening. I still considered it a poor forecast.
But, with that said - I will share the updated maps below.
Latest maps - click for large image (red is above normal temperatures - blue is below normal temperatures)
First map is September through November (below):
Second map is December through February (below):
The third map is for March through May (below):
Also note the RAGING La Nina - this could be a significant La Nina event. The La Nina is noted by the blue colors in the Pacific Ocean basin. Below normal water temperatures (El Nino would be above normal temperatures).
Below: Sea surface water temperatures - click for larger image (this is quite amazing from a meteorological stand point)
And finally - I will throw one more map into the mix. The precipitation forecast - continues to indicate a wet winter for our region. There are a lot of other areas that are below normal. So, confidence in this map would be quite low. However, La Nina's do typically create wet winters in our region. Snow, ice, thunderstorms, and rain. Severe weather events, as well.
Below: Precipitation forecast - blue is above normal and red is below normal precipitation. Click image for a larger view.
The maps above were supplied by the JAMSTEC - Indian Ocean Dipole web-site - that can be viewed here.
El Nino index - this chart shows the current state of La Nina - we just came off of an El Nino. I believe this is one of the steeper drops in recorded history.
And for good measure - let me throw one more map into the ring (below). This CAS map shows December - above normal temperatures and much above normal precipitation. For what it is worth (click image to enlarge)
Now back to reality - short term. :) Your seven day forecast can be viewed here.
Have a nice week
- Beau Dodson
September 11, 2010: Chance of showers and storms early today then nicer...
September 11, 2010:
Update - storms formed east of most of our counties - a few severe storms in central and eastern Kentucky. Rain chances are decreasing for our local counties. Front went through mostly dry.
Older post...
A cold front will approach and pass through the region late this morning and into the afternoon hours. Along and ahead of this front there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Some areas may not receive any rainfall - radar shows showers are quite scattered in nature. Where showers and storms do develop, though, there could be around 1/2" of rain.
An isolated strong storms can't be ruled out. This is especially true over Kentucky and Tennessee.
Sunday should be nice. Dry weather will continue until the next chance of precipitation towards the end of next week.
I am watching a couple of tropical threats. We will have to keep an eye on the Gulf of Mexico - once again - in the days to come. Several disturbed areas of weather could develop into a tropical storm or hurricane. Also watching some system in the far eastern Atlantic.
- Beau Dodson
Update - storms formed east of most of our counties - a few severe storms in central and eastern Kentucky. Rain chances are decreasing for our local counties. Front went through mostly dry.
Older post...
A cold front will approach and pass through the region late this morning and into the afternoon hours. Along and ahead of this front there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Some areas may not receive any rainfall - radar shows showers are quite scattered in nature. Where showers and storms do develop, though, there could be around 1/2" of rain.
An isolated strong storms can't be ruled out. This is especially true over Kentucky and Tennessee.
Sunday should be nice. Dry weather will continue until the next chance of precipitation towards the end of next week.
I am watching a couple of tropical threats. We will have to keep an eye on the Gulf of Mexico - once again - in the days to come. Several disturbed areas of weather could develop into a tropical storm or hurricane. Also watching some system in the far eastern Atlantic.
- Beau Dodson
September 10, 2010: Rain continues
September 10, 2010
Rain continues across the region. I have measured 4.52" since the rain began. Totals of 1-5" have been reported over most of the region. Impressive totals - much needed rainfall.
This will certainly help our drought.
- Beau
Rain continues across the region. I have measured 4.52" since the rain began. Totals of 1-5" have been reported over most of the region. Impressive totals - much needed rainfall.
This will certainly help our drought.
- Beau
September 9, 2010
September 9, 2010
We have great news this morning. The track of Hermine is going to be further south than expected. This means that the heaviest rains that were expected from Springfield, Missouri to Mt Vernon, Illinois will not be further south than anticipated. Surprise!
The further south track means that the heaviest rains will now be from northern Arkansas and southern Missouri into southern Illinois and western Kentucky. Also Tennessee.
Rainfall totals - widespread - of 1-2" are expected in most of our counties. Isolated amounts of 2-4" are possible in the heaviest bands. Tropical storms are notorious for producing locally heavy rains - so don't be surprised to see some isolated very large totals in the heaviest bands.
An isolated tornado can't be ruled out over northeast Arkansas into the Missouri Bootheel and west Tennessee.
Flash flood watches in effect for portions of Missouri and Arkansas.
Watches and warnings can be viewed here
Radar can be viewed here
Occasionally it is nice to be wrong about something mother nature has up her sleeve. This is one of those times. The further south track is great news for drought stricken areas.
A cold front will move through the region on Saturday - with another shot at rain/storms. Isolated severe.
Enjoy the rain!
Beau Dodson
We have great news this morning. The track of Hermine is going to be further south than expected. This means that the heaviest rains that were expected from Springfield, Missouri to Mt Vernon, Illinois will not be further south than anticipated. Surprise!
The further south track means that the heaviest rains will now be from northern Arkansas and southern Missouri into southern Illinois and western Kentucky. Also Tennessee.
Rainfall totals - widespread - of 1-2" are expected in most of our counties. Isolated amounts of 2-4" are possible in the heaviest bands. Tropical storms are notorious for producing locally heavy rains - so don't be surprised to see some isolated very large totals in the heaviest bands.
An isolated tornado can't be ruled out over northeast Arkansas into the Missouri Bootheel and west Tennessee.
Flash flood watches in effect for portions of Missouri and Arkansas.
Watches and warnings can be viewed here
Radar can be viewed here
Occasionally it is nice to be wrong about something mother nature has up her sleeve. This is one of those times. The further south track is great news for drought stricken areas.
A cold front will move through the region on Saturday - with another shot at rain/storms. Isolated severe.
Enjoy the rain!
Beau Dodson
September 8. 2010: A difficult forecast
September 8, 2010
Chances for rain will increase over the next 24 hours - a cold front will move through the region on Saturday with additional showers and storms...
There will be a sharp cutoff between heavy rain and light rain - 50-75 miles could mean the difference between 1/2" of rain and 2-3" of rain...
We have a difficult forecast over the coming days. The main concern is the track and movement of tropical depression Hermine. As you know from reading some of my information over the last month - it is my belief that the best shot at ending this drought would be for a tropical system to push through our region. We now have a tropical system on the map and it is going to move across portions of Oklahoma, Kansas, Arkansas, Missouri, and Illinois.
The only question left is how much rain will we receive. There are some differences in forecasts from local meteorologists and the federal agencies. The problem is that the exact track of Hermine is a bit uncertain. It is important to get the track right in order to get the rainfall totals correct. Tough forecast. But, I will give it my best shot. If Hermine moves further south than expected then we will have to increase our rainfall totals.
Here is a view of the remnants (click for extra large view) of Hermine - impressive swirl in Oklahoma and Texas. Lot of moisture being pulled northward with the system.
My forecast thoughts are that the heaviest rains will fall across portions of Oklahoma, southeast and eastern Kansas, western Missouri into southern and central Missouri then into east central Missouri and then into the southern part of central Illinois and the northern part of southern Illinois (including Belleville over to Mt Vernon).
Areas south of there - including southeast Missouri, the rest of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and western Kentucky will receive rain, as well. But, I don't believe as much as areas just west and north of our immediate local counties. Right now it appears that most of our area (including Cape Girardeau, Marion, Carbondale, Metropolis, Paducah, Golconda, Mayfield, Murray) should receive 1/2-1" of rain from Hermine - locally heavier rain especially as you move further north in that outlined area. Areas in the heaviest band (the ones mentioned earlier in this post - outside of our area) could receive anywhere from 3-4" of rain with local amounts exceeding 5". Impressive totals if they verify.
Basically the further south you go into the area the less rain you will receive. The heaviest totals will be north towards St Louis and the lesser totals will be near the KY/Tn border. Assuming the track is correct. Again, if the track is further south then I will need to update the forecast.
Areas included in the heavier rain bands would include - Springfield - Jefferson City - St Louis - Columbia - Farmington, Missouri and Belleville - Salem - Fairfield, Mt Vernon, Illinois. Rough outline. Assuming Hermine tracks as expected. You can view the current flash flood watch outlines by clicking here.
Again, there are disagreements on this forecast. The HPC (in charge of forecasting heavy rainfall amounts) has placed most of our local area in the 2-4" range. Although they did back down some from previous forecasts. If the track of Hermine is further south and east then our local counties will receive more rainfall than I am forecasting. If this appears to be the case then I will update accordingly. :) I don't think many of us would be upset if I was wrong on the rainfall totals. We need rain - desperately.
When will the rain chances increase?
The chance for rain will begin late tonight and continue into Friday evening. There are already some showers occurring over northern Arkansas. The main brunt of the system is still back in Oklahoma and Texas (see regional radars below).
In addition to Hermine, a cold front will approach our region on Saturday and push through the region on Saturday afternoon. This will give us another chance for showers and locally heavy thunderstorms. So, we at least have a few more chances of rain in the coming days. I know many of us missed out on yesterdays rainfall. I did not receive a single drop here at the Weather Observatory in central Massac County. Much of the area continues to experience drought conditions.
Don't forget there are burn bans in effect for many of our counties.
Your seven day forecast from the National Weather Service can be viewed here
Local and regional radar (watch Hermine moving in) can be viewed here and a large radar image can be viewed here.
Overall the forecast is for normal to above normal temperatures over the next 6-10 day period. A few days (after frontal passage) will likely be a bit below normal in the temperature department.
Here are some of the different rainfall forecasts from the National Weather Service and computer models - as you can see there are different opinions on how this all unfolds -Click image for larger view:
NAM Computer Model Rainfall Forecast - image from http://www.wright-weather.com/
GFS Computer Model Rainfall Forecast - from http://www.wright-weather.com/
HPC Rainfall Forecasts
Chances for rain will increase over the next 24 hours - a cold front will move through the region on Saturday with additional showers and storms...
There will be a sharp cutoff between heavy rain and light rain - 50-75 miles could mean the difference between 1/2" of rain and 2-3" of rain...
We have a difficult forecast over the coming days. The main concern is the track and movement of tropical depression Hermine. As you know from reading some of my information over the last month - it is my belief that the best shot at ending this drought would be for a tropical system to push through our region. We now have a tropical system on the map and it is going to move across portions of Oklahoma, Kansas, Arkansas, Missouri, and Illinois.
The only question left is how much rain will we receive. There are some differences in forecasts from local meteorologists and the federal agencies. The problem is that the exact track of Hermine is a bit uncertain. It is important to get the track right in order to get the rainfall totals correct. Tough forecast. But, I will give it my best shot. If Hermine moves further south than expected then we will have to increase our rainfall totals.
Here is a view of the remnants (click for extra large view) of Hermine - impressive swirl in Oklahoma and Texas. Lot of moisture being pulled northward with the system.
My forecast thoughts are that the heaviest rains will fall across portions of Oklahoma, southeast and eastern Kansas, western Missouri into southern and central Missouri then into east central Missouri and then into the southern part of central Illinois and the northern part of southern Illinois (including Belleville over to Mt Vernon).
Areas south of there - including southeast Missouri, the rest of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and western Kentucky will receive rain, as well. But, I don't believe as much as areas just west and north of our immediate local counties. Right now it appears that most of our area (including Cape Girardeau, Marion, Carbondale, Metropolis, Paducah, Golconda, Mayfield, Murray) should receive 1/2-1" of rain from Hermine - locally heavier rain especially as you move further north in that outlined area. Areas in the heaviest band (the ones mentioned earlier in this post - outside of our area) could receive anywhere from 3-4" of rain with local amounts exceeding 5". Impressive totals if they verify.
Basically the further south you go into the area the less rain you will receive. The heaviest totals will be north towards St Louis and the lesser totals will be near the KY/Tn border. Assuming the track is correct. Again, if the track is further south then I will need to update the forecast.
Areas included in the heavier rain bands would include - Springfield - Jefferson City - St Louis - Columbia - Farmington, Missouri and Belleville - Salem - Fairfield, Mt Vernon, Illinois. Rough outline. Assuming Hermine tracks as expected. You can view the current flash flood watch outlines by clicking here.
Again, there are disagreements on this forecast. The HPC (in charge of forecasting heavy rainfall amounts) has placed most of our local area in the 2-4" range. Although they did back down some from previous forecasts. If the track of Hermine is further south and east then our local counties will receive more rainfall than I am forecasting. If this appears to be the case then I will update accordingly. :) I don't think many of us would be upset if I was wrong on the rainfall totals. We need rain - desperately.
When will the rain chances increase?
The chance for rain will begin late tonight and continue into Friday evening. There are already some showers occurring over northern Arkansas. The main brunt of the system is still back in Oklahoma and Texas (see regional radars below).
In addition to Hermine, a cold front will approach our region on Saturday and push through the region on Saturday afternoon. This will give us another chance for showers and locally heavy thunderstorms. So, we at least have a few more chances of rain in the coming days. I know many of us missed out on yesterdays rainfall. I did not receive a single drop here at the Weather Observatory in central Massac County. Much of the area continues to experience drought conditions.
Don't forget there are burn bans in effect for many of our counties.
Your seven day forecast from the National Weather Service can be viewed here
Local and regional radar (watch Hermine moving in) can be viewed here and a large radar image can be viewed here.
Overall the forecast is for normal to above normal temperatures over the next 6-10 day period. A few days (after frontal passage) will likely be a bit below normal in the temperature department.
Here are some of the different rainfall forecasts from the National Weather Service and computer models - as you can see there are different opinions on how this all unfolds -Click image for larger view:
NAM Computer Model Rainfall Forecast - image from http://www.wright-weather.com/
GFS Computer Model Rainfall Forecast - from http://www.wright-weather.com/
HPC Rainfall Forecasts
September 7, 2010: Rain
September 7, 2010
Rain will spread into our region this afternoon. Some locally heavy rain will be possible. An isolated severe thunderstorm is also possible. Once again, not everyone will receive rain. As has been the case for months.
We will have to keep an eye on the remnants of Tropical Storm Hermine for later in the week. This could bring much needed rainfall into our local area. Still a bit early to make a call. Looks mainly west and north - with most of our immediate area receiving 1/2-1". But - we shall see. Heavier rains are possible.
- Beau
For latest forecasts and radar you can visit www.weatherobservatory.com
Rain will spread into our region this afternoon. Some locally heavy rain will be possible. An isolated severe thunderstorm is also possible. Once again, not everyone will receive rain. As has been the case for months.
We will have to keep an eye on the remnants of Tropical Storm Hermine for later in the week. This could bring much needed rainfall into our local area. Still a bit early to make a call. Looks mainly west and north - with most of our immediate area receiving 1/2-1". But - we shall see. Heavier rains are possible.
- Beau
For latest forecasts and radar you can visit www.weatherobservatory.com
September 4, 2010: Beau's Fall Forecast - some winter thoughts, as well
Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky Fall Outlook:
Posted by Beau Dodson on September 3, 2010
Update: November 7, 2010: Leaning towards December being below normal in temperatures and then January and February above normal. I still believe this is going to be a roller-coaster winter with plenty of swings in temperatures and an active storm pattern.
Update: November 1, 2010: November will likely bring colder than normal temperatures to our region. This will be the only month of the fall season with below normal temperatures.
UPDATE: October 10, 2010 - reminder. I will once again be using the ice storm rating index scale for the upcoming winter season - you can view that index here (thankfully last year we did not need to use it) - click here
UPDATE: September 29th - will post September verification on the 30th. September turned out to be much above normal in the temperature department. We had our wild card tropical system (Hermine) - otherwise the rest of the area experienced below normal precipitation. Some areas had almost no rain. I will post numbers tomorrow.
As we look ahead to October - normal to below normal temperatures are expected for the first half of the month. We could see several days with much below normal temperatures. The second half of the month could bring warmer temperatures. I am still expecting below normal precipitation for October. Again - the wild card in the mix will be tropical activity.
Previous forecast thoughts below...
This forecast was issued on September 3rd and covers the months of September through November. The forecast is not for specific events but rather an overall general weather pattern that we can expect for the three month period. Obviously there will be swings in the pattern.
Current Forecast: Above normal temperatures for the overall fall season (Sept-Nov). Lot of frontal passages with some below normal temperature days. More above normal than below - is the current outlook. Precipitation will generally be below normal. However - a tropical system will be the wild card in the forecast. One of two tropical storms (remnants) and we will quickly see rainfall totals rise. So, keep that in mind. Overall though I am expecting below normal precipitation.
The winter will likely be volatile and full of dramatic swings. Which is not uncommon for our region.
Keep in mind that it only takes one big snow or ice event for the public to perceive the winter as being "severe, extreme, or bad." Just because we may experience above normal temperatures this winter does not mean we won't see extreme swings. I am not a huge fan of long range outlooks. However, a lot of people do show interest in the subject.
Also - as we look ahead to the winter months - above normal temperatures don't always equate to a mild winter. Keep that in mind when glancing over the forecast and the maps. The maps below indicate that the probabilities favor above normal temperatures for the fall and winter months.
If you don't follow my daily updates and forecasts then you will miss out on any forecast changes and specific event forecasts. You can follow me here on the blog or on Facebook. I update Facebook more often - easy to update and quick to follow.
Well, meteorological fall has arrived and with the season change comes the question - what kind of fall and winter are we going to have this year? I have touched on some of my thoughts, on Facebook and here on the blog, over the last few months. You can read previous thoughts here on the blog by skimming back through the postings.
One has to remember that it is nearly impossible to predict specific events more than a few days to a week in advance. So, anyone who tells you that it is going to snow 3" on Christmas Eve is either making it up or aiming for a lucky guess. Forecasters just don't have the capability to forecast specific events in the long range.
The ice storm is great example of this topic. We (NWS, local media, forecasters) gave anywhere from 7-10 days advance notice that a major ice event was possible in our region. But, it would have been impossible a month in advance to give everyone a forecast that included an ice storm. Mother nature just doesn't work that way and we do not have the skills or computer models to see that far into the future. We can, however, tell you that the pattern favors ice storms, snow events, flooding, and severe weather. But - that is just about as specific as our crystal ball will allow us to forecast. Generalities and patterns.
As I said above, what we can do, though, is determine if a certain pattern is conducive to producing above or below normal weather conditions during a particular season of the year. And even then it is not an exact science. Sometimes the signals point in one direction but mother nature decides to take us somewhere else.
So - I am not going to be forecasting specific events. But, rather - I will be forecasting general trends in the data that is currently available and overall patterns that are likely to occur during the months of September, October, and November. There are several offices that have issued their fall outlooks and for the most part I don't see much disagreement in what direction everyone is heading.
La Nina conditions continue to develop over the Pacific. It is likely that this will have a significant impact on the coming fall and winter months. As a matter of fact this La Nina could rank in the top 5 La Nina's in strength. Still a bit early to determine that - the question also remains as to when this La Nina will peak.
I am already seeing signs of more frequent and deeper low pressure systems on the weather map. These systems will develop in the central plains and move northeast into the Great Lakes. This is not only a sign of fall but also of a La Nina pattern.
For the most part - generalizing - fall (September through November) is forecast to bring above normal temperatures with below normal precipitation. That isn't to say we won't see some nice cold frontal passages - we always do. It simply means that the overall pattern favors above normal temperatures during the three month period and that the cool spells should be short lived or transient.
I also want to remind you that one or two tropical storms or hurricanes moving into the Gulf of Mexico, Texas, or Mexico could dramatically alter the forecast for dry weather. If this were to happen then our rainfall deficits could quickly disappear. That is a wild card in this forecast. So, keep that in mind.
The following maps are from the Climate Prediction Center and give you some idea of what other forecasters are thinking. One wild card, as we have been discussing over the last few weeks, in this type of active tropical pattern would be a tropical system moving up through the Gulf of Mexico and bringing us much needed rainfall.
Temperature Forecast Map
Click the map for larger view
Rainfall Forecast Map - Indicates Below Normal Rainfall
Click the map for a larger view - you can see the probabilities for dry weather are centered over our counties.
Overall the analog years chosen for the fall forecast period, on the maps below, seem to indicate the most likely scenario that will unfold for our local region.
Click for large view of the temperature and precipitation forecast for September through November.
And a couple of more analog maps (analog means the years that most closely match the current ocean conditions and other factors)
Temperature Forecast For September - November (click for larger image)
Analog Precipitation Forecast - Shows Dry Conditions For The Fall Months
(Click image for larger view)
As you may know our region is currently experiencing drought conditions. Unfortunately, this is expected to worsen in the coming weeks and months. Forecast charts are indicating that below normal precipitation will likely be the case for September through November. Again, the wild card in this forecast would be any tropical storms or hurricanes that advance through the Gulf of Mexico and move up into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. If this were to occur then we would likely see a period of moderate to heavy rainfall of a more widespread nature. However, that is a wild card and too uncertain to actually forecast at this time. You will have to follow the tropical updates as the hurricane season unfolds.
Otherwise - the general pattern will favor below normal rainfall. Not what we want to hear. This could enhance the fire season in our region. There are hints that precipitation may be above normal from mid winter into late winter - but we are getting ahead of ourselves as this post is talking about fall!
The following information is an exert from a neighboring National Weather Service Office
Large Scale Synoptic Pattern
A healthy La Nina continues to evolve over the eastern and central Pacific (the most
recent weekly Nino 3.4 SST (Fig - 1a, b) has already dropped to about -1.1C as of mid Aug).
According to the Climate Prediction Center /CPC/, “most dynamical models generally
predict a moderate-to-strong La Niña, while the majority of the statistical model forecasts
indicate a weaker episode (Fig – 2). Given the strong cooling observed over the last several months and the apparent ocean-atmosphere coupling (positive feedback), the dynamical model outcome of a moderate-to-strong episode is favored at this time. Therefore, La Niña conditions are expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere Winter 2010- 11”. The CPC Fall Outlook can be found here.
End of their comments
This charts shows the developing La Nina with below normal
water temperatures through the winter. The normal baseline is
the zero line in the middle. Anything below that line means
colder than normal water.
And an easier map - you can see that the Pacific waters are colder than they should be on the map below. This is what a La Nina looks like when you are looking at water temperatures. Below normal waters in the Pacific basin.
In layman terms La Nina simply means that the Pacific waters are going to be cooler than normal - last year we had an El Nino environment. Warmer than normal ocean waters. That was not the only atmospheric condition that influenced our winter - far from it as a matter of fact. There were other contributing factors that helped us end with the sixth coldest winter on record.
Let's take a quick look at the water temperatures from last year and compare them to this year - check out the Pacific - you can see the dramatic changes.
Above - September 2009 water temperatures (note the El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean)
Above - September 2010 ocean water temperatures (see how much blue there is - blue is cooler than normal water temperatures)
I don't see much to argue with or disagree with on the subject of La Nina and the upcoming fall season compared to what other forecasters have been stating. I have been discussing this issue for months in my postings and email forecast analysis - along with my posts on Facebook - so have some other forecasters. And those thoughts have changed very little.
For sensible weather all of this will mean that the fire danger will continue to increase in the coming weeks and months. September through November will bring the normal windier conditions and lower humidity levels. This coupled with on-going drought conditions in our region will mean a greater fire danger.
I suspect local fire departments will be quite busy in the weeks and months ahead. Our best hope is that a tropical storm or hurricane will move up out of the Gulf of Mexico and spread beneficial rains into our region. Of course the Gulf Coast residents do not want that to happen. The good and the bad of tropical weather. They benefit some and hurt others.
NOAA has also issued their drought forecast - you can see that our region is included in the outlook. Click image below for large view (thank you Paducah, NWS for posting this information)
The tropical season is expected to be quite active in the coming 6-8 week period. Numerous named storms will likely impact the Atlantic basin. Each one of these will have to be tracked and monitored for possible impact to shipping lanes and U.S. coastlines.
We are also quickly approaching our second severe weather max. We normally have a max in spring and fall. Although, severe weather can happen anytime of the year - including winter. This may be especially true this winter with the La Nina pattern developing. La Nina sometimes can increase the risk for severe weather over the central and southern United States during the fall and winter months.
If you would like to read additional information on the upcoming fall and winter forecasts then visit the links below
Central Illinois - National Weather Service
Southeast Lower Michigan - NWS Outlook
And - on a final note - one of the model suites that I like to use for seasonal forecasting is showing a warmer than normal winter for our region. The below map is for December through February. Still some time to sort out the winter thoughts. :) But, that is a preview.
Winter temperature forecast (from one model suite)
I would not be surprised to see the primary storm track north of our region this winter - thus putting us in the battle ground for severe weather potential. A storm track to our north would provide areas from Kansas into Iowa and northern Illinois/Wisconsin/Michigan with plenty of snow and ice. I would expect our region to have frequent swings from above normal temperatures to below normal temperatures. The proverbial battleground could be quite common across our region. This would be unlike last winter when we saw mostly below normal temperatures and consistent/persistent cold.
I have also stated that I believe the risk for a significant ice storm (1"+ of freezing rain) will be above normal from Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, central/northern Arkansas, Missouri, southern Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, northern Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, and southern Ohio - a corridor along those lines.
In any given year the risk for a significant ice storm is about 1-5% (depending on your location in the area mentioned above). As stated above it is impossible to predict exact/specific events months in advance. It is only possible to forecast patterns. In a normal year our region experiences some freezing rain - 1 or 2 episodes. Normally accumulating less than 0.25".
If La Nina ends up being one of the primary weather influences this winter then a strong and active northern jet is likely. Lot of storm systems - lot of cold fronts - quite a bit of active weather. The question will come down to where the battle lines set up between the warm and cold. Seems like that is usually the case in this region.
If also appears that the NAO has a better chance of being neutral or positive during this upcoming winter. Another important clue as to how our winter unfolds.
In layman terms - warmer than normal winter appears likely for our region. Above normal precipitation - esp January through March. Frequent/strong low pressure systems passing to our north (this would keep us in the battle zone for rain, snow, and ice). Potential for one or more severe weather episodes will be fairly likely. Several significant cold waves where temperatures fall below 10 degrees - but transient in nature. We will likely see some impressive temperature swings with a pattern that appears to be unfolding. Impressive meaning temperatures dropping from the 50s or 60s into the teens and 20s after frontal passage.
That would mean a winter of extremes - wild temperature swings. From milder air to colder air - strong cold fronts - deep storms in the central United States. However, our region is fairly used to this type of weather in the winter.
There are also a number of signals that are pointing towards much below normal temperatures, for the Alaska months, over Alaska and western Canada, northwest United States into the northern Rockies. Some of that bitter cold air is likely to spill into the Great Lakes and central parts of the United States during the winter months - which in itself isn't unusual - but what might be unusual is just how cold some of those temperatures spilling in from the northwest might be. Something for us to watch.
We still have some time before I come out with my official winter thoughts. We did pretty well last year with the predictions for a cold and snowy winter. We will see how this winter unfolds. Of course it only takes one or two big events in our region to make for a memorable winter.
- Beau Dodson
Proudly serving western Kentucky and southern Illinois
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
Posted by Beau Dodson on September 3, 2010
Update: November 7, 2010: Leaning towards December being below normal in temperatures and then January and February above normal. I still believe this is going to be a roller-coaster winter with plenty of swings in temperatures and an active storm pattern.
Update: November 1, 2010: November will likely bring colder than normal temperatures to our region. This will be the only month of the fall season with below normal temperatures.
UPDATE: October 10, 2010 - reminder. I will once again be using the ice storm rating index scale for the upcoming winter season - you can view that index here (thankfully last year we did not need to use it) - click here
UPDATE: September 29th - will post September verification on the 30th. September turned out to be much above normal in the temperature department. We had our wild card tropical system (Hermine) - otherwise the rest of the area experienced below normal precipitation. Some areas had almost no rain. I will post numbers tomorrow.
As we look ahead to October - normal to below normal temperatures are expected for the first half of the month. We could see several days with much below normal temperatures. The second half of the month could bring warmer temperatures. I am still expecting below normal precipitation for October. Again - the wild card in the mix will be tropical activity.
Previous forecast thoughts below...
This forecast was issued on September 3rd and covers the months of September through November. The forecast is not for specific events but rather an overall general weather pattern that we can expect for the three month period. Obviously there will be swings in the pattern.
Current Forecast: Above normal temperatures for the overall fall season (Sept-Nov). Lot of frontal passages with some below normal temperature days. More above normal than below - is the current outlook. Precipitation will generally be below normal. However - a tropical system will be the wild card in the forecast. One of two tropical storms (remnants) and we will quickly see rainfall totals rise. So, keep that in mind. Overall though I am expecting below normal precipitation.
The winter will likely be volatile and full of dramatic swings. Which is not uncommon for our region.
Keep in mind that it only takes one big snow or ice event for the public to perceive the winter as being "severe, extreme, or bad." Just because we may experience above normal temperatures this winter does not mean we won't see extreme swings. I am not a huge fan of long range outlooks. However, a lot of people do show interest in the subject.
Also - as we look ahead to the winter months - above normal temperatures don't always equate to a mild winter. Keep that in mind when glancing over the forecast and the maps. The maps below indicate that the probabilities favor above normal temperatures for the fall and winter months.
If you don't follow my daily updates and forecasts then you will miss out on any forecast changes and specific event forecasts. You can follow me here on the blog or on Facebook. I update Facebook more often - easy to update and quick to follow.
Well, meteorological fall has arrived and with the season change comes the question - what kind of fall and winter are we going to have this year? I have touched on some of my thoughts, on Facebook and here on the blog, over the last few months. You can read previous thoughts here on the blog by skimming back through the postings.
One has to remember that it is nearly impossible to predict specific events more than a few days to a week in advance. So, anyone who tells you that it is going to snow 3" on Christmas Eve is either making it up or aiming for a lucky guess. Forecasters just don't have the capability to forecast specific events in the long range.
The ice storm is great example of this topic. We (NWS, local media, forecasters) gave anywhere from 7-10 days advance notice that a major ice event was possible in our region. But, it would have been impossible a month in advance to give everyone a forecast that included an ice storm. Mother nature just doesn't work that way and we do not have the skills or computer models to see that far into the future. We can, however, tell you that the pattern favors ice storms, snow events, flooding, and severe weather. But - that is just about as specific as our crystal ball will allow us to forecast. Generalities and patterns.
As I said above, what we can do, though, is determine if a certain pattern is conducive to producing above or below normal weather conditions during a particular season of the year. And even then it is not an exact science. Sometimes the signals point in one direction but mother nature decides to take us somewhere else.
So - I am not going to be forecasting specific events. But, rather - I will be forecasting general trends in the data that is currently available and overall patterns that are likely to occur during the months of September, October, and November. There are several offices that have issued their fall outlooks and for the most part I don't see much disagreement in what direction everyone is heading.
La Nina conditions continue to develop over the Pacific. It is likely that this will have a significant impact on the coming fall and winter months. As a matter of fact this La Nina could rank in the top 5 La Nina's in strength. Still a bit early to determine that - the question also remains as to when this La Nina will peak.
I am already seeing signs of more frequent and deeper low pressure systems on the weather map. These systems will develop in the central plains and move northeast into the Great Lakes. This is not only a sign of fall but also of a La Nina pattern.
For the most part - generalizing - fall (September through November) is forecast to bring above normal temperatures with below normal precipitation. That isn't to say we won't see some nice cold frontal passages - we always do. It simply means that the overall pattern favors above normal temperatures during the three month period and that the cool spells should be short lived or transient.
I also want to remind you that one or two tropical storms or hurricanes moving into the Gulf of Mexico, Texas, or Mexico could dramatically alter the forecast for dry weather. If this were to happen then our rainfall deficits could quickly disappear. That is a wild card in this forecast. So, keep that in mind.
The following maps are from the Climate Prediction Center and give you some idea of what other forecasters are thinking. One wild card, as we have been discussing over the last few weeks, in this type of active tropical pattern would be a tropical system moving up through the Gulf of Mexico and bringing us much needed rainfall.
Temperature Forecast Map
Click the map for larger view
Rainfall Forecast Map - Indicates Below Normal Rainfall
Click the map for a larger view - you can see the probabilities for dry weather are centered over our counties.
Overall the analog years chosen for the fall forecast period, on the maps below, seem to indicate the most likely scenario that will unfold for our local region.
Click for large view of the temperature and precipitation forecast for September through November.
And a couple of more analog maps (analog means the years that most closely match the current ocean conditions and other factors)
Temperature Forecast For September - November (click for larger image)
Analog Precipitation Forecast - Shows Dry Conditions For The Fall Months
(Click image for larger view)
As you may know our region is currently experiencing drought conditions. Unfortunately, this is expected to worsen in the coming weeks and months. Forecast charts are indicating that below normal precipitation will likely be the case for September through November. Again, the wild card in this forecast would be any tropical storms or hurricanes that advance through the Gulf of Mexico and move up into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. If this were to occur then we would likely see a period of moderate to heavy rainfall of a more widespread nature. However, that is a wild card and too uncertain to actually forecast at this time. You will have to follow the tropical updates as the hurricane season unfolds.
Otherwise - the general pattern will favor below normal rainfall. Not what we want to hear. This could enhance the fire season in our region. There are hints that precipitation may be above normal from mid winter into late winter - but we are getting ahead of ourselves as this post is talking about fall!
The following information is an exert from a neighboring National Weather Service Office
Large Scale Synoptic Pattern
A healthy La Nina continues to evolve over the eastern and central Pacific (the most
recent weekly Nino 3.4 SST (Fig - 1a, b) has already dropped to about -1.1C as of mid Aug).
According to the Climate Prediction Center /CPC/, “most dynamical models generally
predict a moderate-to-strong La Niña, while the majority of the statistical model forecasts
indicate a weaker episode (Fig – 2). Given the strong cooling observed over the last several months and the apparent ocean-atmosphere coupling (positive feedback), the dynamical model outcome of a moderate-to-strong episode is favored at this time. Therefore, La Niña conditions are expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere Winter 2010- 11”. The CPC Fall Outlook can be found here.
End of their comments
This charts shows the developing La Nina with below normal
water temperatures through the winter. The normal baseline is
the zero line in the middle. Anything below that line means
colder than normal water.
And an easier map - you can see that the Pacific waters are colder than they should be on the map below. This is what a La Nina looks like when you are looking at water temperatures. Below normal waters in the Pacific basin.
In layman terms La Nina simply means that the Pacific waters are going to be cooler than normal - last year we had an El Nino environment. Warmer than normal ocean waters. That was not the only atmospheric condition that influenced our winter - far from it as a matter of fact. There were other contributing factors that helped us end with the sixth coldest winter on record.
Let's take a quick look at the water temperatures from last year and compare them to this year - check out the Pacific - you can see the dramatic changes.
Above - September 2009 water temperatures (note the El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean)
Above - September 2010 ocean water temperatures (see how much blue there is - blue is cooler than normal water temperatures)
I don't see much to argue with or disagree with on the subject of La Nina and the upcoming fall season compared to what other forecasters have been stating. I have been discussing this issue for months in my postings and email forecast analysis - along with my posts on Facebook - so have some other forecasters. And those thoughts have changed very little.
For sensible weather all of this will mean that the fire danger will continue to increase in the coming weeks and months. September through November will bring the normal windier conditions and lower humidity levels. This coupled with on-going drought conditions in our region will mean a greater fire danger.
I suspect local fire departments will be quite busy in the weeks and months ahead. Our best hope is that a tropical storm or hurricane will move up out of the Gulf of Mexico and spread beneficial rains into our region. Of course the Gulf Coast residents do not want that to happen. The good and the bad of tropical weather. They benefit some and hurt others.
NOAA has also issued their drought forecast - you can see that our region is included in the outlook. Click image below for large view (thank you Paducah, NWS for posting this information)
The tropical season is expected to be quite active in the coming 6-8 week period. Numerous named storms will likely impact the Atlantic basin. Each one of these will have to be tracked and monitored for possible impact to shipping lanes and U.S. coastlines.
We are also quickly approaching our second severe weather max. We normally have a max in spring and fall. Although, severe weather can happen anytime of the year - including winter. This may be especially true this winter with the La Nina pattern developing. La Nina sometimes can increase the risk for severe weather over the central and southern United States during the fall and winter months.
If you would like to read additional information on the upcoming fall and winter forecasts then visit the links below
Central Illinois - National Weather Service
Southeast Lower Michigan - NWS Outlook
And - on a final note - one of the model suites that I like to use for seasonal forecasting is showing a warmer than normal winter for our region. The below map is for December through February. Still some time to sort out the winter thoughts. :) But, that is a preview.
Winter temperature forecast (from one model suite)
I would not be surprised to see the primary storm track north of our region this winter - thus putting us in the battle ground for severe weather potential. A storm track to our north would provide areas from Kansas into Iowa and northern Illinois/Wisconsin/Michigan with plenty of snow and ice. I would expect our region to have frequent swings from above normal temperatures to below normal temperatures. The proverbial battleground could be quite common across our region. This would be unlike last winter when we saw mostly below normal temperatures and consistent/persistent cold.
I have also stated that I believe the risk for a significant ice storm (1"+ of freezing rain) will be above normal from Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, central/northern Arkansas, Missouri, southern Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, northern Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, and southern Ohio - a corridor along those lines.
In any given year the risk for a significant ice storm is about 1-5% (depending on your location in the area mentioned above). As stated above it is impossible to predict exact/specific events months in advance. It is only possible to forecast patterns. In a normal year our region experiences some freezing rain - 1 or 2 episodes. Normally accumulating less than 0.25".
If La Nina ends up being one of the primary weather influences this winter then a strong and active northern jet is likely. Lot of storm systems - lot of cold fronts - quite a bit of active weather. The question will come down to where the battle lines set up between the warm and cold. Seems like that is usually the case in this region.
If also appears that the NAO has a better chance of being neutral or positive during this upcoming winter. Another important clue as to how our winter unfolds.
In layman terms - warmer than normal winter appears likely for our region. Above normal precipitation - esp January through March. Frequent/strong low pressure systems passing to our north (this would keep us in the battle zone for rain, snow, and ice). Potential for one or more severe weather episodes will be fairly likely. Several significant cold waves where temperatures fall below 10 degrees - but transient in nature. We will likely see some impressive temperature swings with a pattern that appears to be unfolding. Impressive meaning temperatures dropping from the 50s or 60s into the teens and 20s after frontal passage.
That would mean a winter of extremes - wild temperature swings. From milder air to colder air - strong cold fronts - deep storms in the central United States. However, our region is fairly used to this type of weather in the winter.
There are also a number of signals that are pointing towards much below normal temperatures, for the Alaska months, over Alaska and western Canada, northwest United States into the northern Rockies. Some of that bitter cold air is likely to spill into the Great Lakes and central parts of the United States during the winter months - which in itself isn't unusual - but what might be unusual is just how cold some of those temperatures spilling in from the northwest might be. Something for us to watch.
We still have some time before I come out with my official winter thoughts. We did pretty well last year with the predictions for a cold and snowy winter. We will see how this winter unfolds. Of course it only takes one or two big events in our region to make for a memorable winter.
- Beau Dodson
Proudly serving western Kentucky and southern Illinois
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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