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http://weather.weatherobservatory.com/index.php
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
Friday: Cloudy with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.
Highs: 64-68 degree range
Wind: South winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 40%-50% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.40"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
Friday night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Fog possible
Lows: in the lower to middle 50s
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph - winds shifting to the west
Precipitation probability - 40%-50% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.40"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Highs: 64-68 degree range
Wind: South winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 40%-50% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.40"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
Friday night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Fog possible
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Saturday: Some morning fog - Cloudy with scattered showers - a thunderstorm possible.
Highs: In the 55-60 degree rangeWind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph - winds shifting to the west
Precipitation probability - 40%-50% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.40"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Saturday night: Cloudy with a chance for scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.
Lows: in the lower 50s
Wind: East winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: scattered 0.20"-0.40"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Sunday - Mostly cloudy sky conditions - showers and thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy downpours possible. An isolated threat for severe weather - hail, gusty winds, and/or an isolated tornado.
Highs: in the middle 60s
Wind: South winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 60%-80% | Rainfall totals: 0.40"-0.75" - locally heavier totals likely.
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: West winds at 10-20 mph - becoming gusty - gusts above 30 mph possible
Precipitation probability -60%-80% | Rainfall totals: scattered 0.25"-0.40" - locally higher over eastern and southeastern counties
Confidence in this forecast is high
Monday - Cloudy - a chance for light rain or a mix of sleet and snow during the morning hours. Precipitation coming to an end from west to east.
Highs: in the upper 30s and lower 40s
Wind: West winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals: 0.20"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
This
forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri,
southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest
Tennessee
HEADLINES: A complicated forecast over the coming days. It isn't that we aren't sure whether or not it is or isn't going to rain - we know the answer to that question! It is going to rain. The question will be the placement of the frontal boundary and ripples of energy that move up along the frontal boundary.
Right now it appears that the heaviest rainfall amounts will be placed over southern Indiana into Kentucky and Tennessee. Lesser rainfall totals are likely across southern Illinois and southeast Missouri.
Showers will be ongoing on Thursday night and continue into Sunday night. There will be several distinct chances of rain. One of those being on Friday itself - then scattered on Saturday - then another widespread chance on Sunday into Sunday evening.
There will be some thunderstorms with this system. There will be a small risk for a few severe thunderstorms on Sunday into Sunday evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado can't be ruled out with the most intense cells. Monitor local media and the NWS for up to the minute watches and warnings..
Rainfall totals should be in the 0.50"-1.00" over southern Illinois and southeast Missouri (from start to finish) and in the 1"-2"+ range over parts of southern Indiana down into Kentucky and Tennessee.
Rainfall forecast
There remains some questions on how numerous the showers will be on Saturday. I know there are several parades in the region. I believe that showers will be more scattered late on Saturday morning into early afternoon - then perhaps more numerous during the evening hours into Sunday. There will be a better chance for precipitation over our southeast counties vs northwest (that means a better chance over parts of Indiana and Kentucky/Tennessee).
Check radars if you have outdoor plans and check the latest forecast numbers.
Radars http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
Our region needs this rainfall. Drought conditions prevail over all of our counties. We could use several inches of rain.
The rain may end as a mix of sleet and snow on Monday morning. Right now the chance for accumulation appears small - this should be monitored.
The good news is that we are entering an active pattern of the coming weeks. I promised you that the second and third weeks of December would become more active. That appears to be happening - starting with this system.
It is too early to make a call as to whether any of the systems after this one could produce snow or ice. Some of the model data is showing enough cold air for some frozen precipitation in the coming weeks. The problems with long range data is that it doesn't always verify. So - I will keep monitoring and updating as each event draws closer.
The next best chance for rain and storms will arrive around Friday night or Saturday - December 14th/15th time frame. Looks like another warm system - that means rain!
Wind: East winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: scattered 0.20"-0.40"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Sunday - Mostly cloudy sky conditions - showers and thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy downpours possible. An isolated threat for severe weather - hail, gusty winds, and/or an isolated tornado.
Highs: in the middle 60s
Wind: South winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 60%-80% | Rainfall totals: 0.40"-0.75" - locally heavier totals likely.
Confidence in this forecast is high
Sunday night: Cloudy with rain and a few thunderstorms - turning colder late. Rain may end as a wintry mix of sleet or snow.
Lows: in the lower to middle 30s Wind: West winds at 10-20 mph - becoming gusty - gusts above 30 mph possible
Precipitation probability -60%-80% | Rainfall totals: scattered 0.25"-0.40" - locally higher over eastern and southeastern counties
Confidence in this forecast is high
Monday - Cloudy - a chance for light rain or a mix of sleet and snow during the morning hours. Precipitation coming to an end from west to east.
Highs: in the upper 30s and lower 40s
Wind: West winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals: 0.20"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
HEADLINES: A complicated forecast over the coming days. It isn't that we aren't sure whether or not it is or isn't going to rain - we know the answer to that question! It is going to rain. The question will be the placement of the frontal boundary and ripples of energy that move up along the frontal boundary.
Right now it appears that the heaviest rainfall amounts will be placed over southern Indiana into Kentucky and Tennessee. Lesser rainfall totals are likely across southern Illinois and southeast Missouri.
Showers will be ongoing on Thursday night and continue into Sunday night. There will be several distinct chances of rain. One of those being on Friday itself - then scattered on Saturday - then another widespread chance on Sunday into Sunday evening.
There will be some thunderstorms with this system. There will be a small risk for a few severe thunderstorms on Sunday into Sunday evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado can't be ruled out with the most intense cells. Monitor local media and the NWS for up to the minute watches and warnings..
Rainfall totals should be in the 0.50"-1.00" over southern Illinois and southeast Missouri (from start to finish) and in the 1"-2"+ range over parts of southern Indiana down into Kentucky and Tennessee.
Rainfall forecast
There remains some questions on how numerous the showers will be on Saturday. I know there are several parades in the region. I believe that showers will be more scattered late on Saturday morning into early afternoon - then perhaps more numerous during the evening hours into Sunday. There will be a better chance for precipitation over our southeast counties vs northwest (that means a better chance over parts of Indiana and Kentucky/Tennessee).
Check radars if you have outdoor plans and check the latest forecast numbers.
Radars http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
Our region needs this rainfall. Drought conditions prevail over all of our counties. We could use several inches of rain.
The rain may end as a mix of sleet and snow on Monday morning. Right now the chance for accumulation appears small - this should be monitored.
The good news is that we are entering an active pattern of the coming weeks. I promised you that the second and third weeks of December would become more active. That appears to be happening - starting with this system.
It is too early to make a call as to whether any of the systems after this one could produce snow or ice. Some of the model data is showing enough cold air for some frozen precipitation in the coming weeks. The problems with long range data is that it doesn't always verify. So - I will keep monitoring and updating as each event draws closer.
The next best chance for rain and storms will arrive around Friday night or Saturday - December 14th/15th time frame. Looks like another warm system - that means rain!
Rain over the coming days could mess up outdoor plans. There will be a chance for a few severe thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon and evening. Monitor local media for the most up to the minute watches and/or warnings.
Rain may end as a brief mix of snow and sleet on Monday morning.
Check radars if you have outdoor plans. Rain is likely over the coming days.
Wild card in this forecast will be just how widespread the rain will be over the coming days and the exact placement of the frontal boundaries. I know there are a lot of outdoor plans on Saturday (parades and other). Check radars if you have concerns.
The next wild card will be whether the cold air will move in quick enough to produce a quick shot of sleet or sleet and snow on Monday morning.
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits Yes
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits? Yes
Sunday: A few storms could become severe on Sunday. The main concern would be a few reports of hail and damaging wind. There will be a small risk for a tornado. Monitor the NWS and/or local media for any watches and warnings..
Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits? Yes
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Chance for snow or a mix on Monday morning.
Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits? No
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - There will be a chance for a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch. Monitor the NWS and/or local media for the most up to date weather information.
Monday - No
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - There will be a chance for a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch. Monitor the NWS and/or local media for the most up to date weather information.
Monday - No
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The
links above are interactive and you can move around the United States
by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down
menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
What are my current thoughts on the chances for significant snow or ice over the next 7 days
A chance for a mixture of sleet and snow on Monday morning as the precipitation comes to an end. Data is mixed on whether this will or won't happen. Right now it appears the window of opportunity for frozen precipitation would be between 3 am on Monday morning and 11 am on Monday morning. The main area of concern would be from the Missouri Bootheel into parts of KY/TN.
I will update the Facebook page with the latest information.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site !
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. I have added all of eastern Kentucky, as well.
We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS ---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
What are my current thoughts on the chances for significant snow or ice over the next 7 days
A chance for a mixture of sleet and snow on Monday morning as the precipitation comes to an end. Data is mixed on whether this will or won't happen. Right now it appears the window of opportunity for frozen precipitation would be between 3 am on Monday morning and 11 am on Monday morning. The main area of concern would be from the Missouri Bootheel into parts of KY/TN.
I will update the Facebook page with the latest information.
You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
.
The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
.We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site !
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. I have added all of eastern Kentucky, as well.
We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS ---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's
check out the how much rain is forecast to fall in our region. This
map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
Click the link below - then choose your the time period you are interested in!
CLICK HERE FOR THE RAINFALL GRAPHIC - then choose the time frame above the image
Click the link below - then choose your the time period you are interested in!
CLICK HERE FOR THE RAINFALL GRAPHIC - then choose the time frame above the image
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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1. Drought conditions continue over our region. We desperately need above normal rainfall. It does appear the next 2-3 weeks will provide some opportunity for additional rainfall.
Latest drought information:
DROUGHT INFORMATION - CLICK HERE
Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here
If you are a weather enthusiast then I recommend listening to WeatherBrains each week! For a more in-depth look at what is happening in meteorology.
Now is a GREAT time
to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before
storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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