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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
Wednesday: Partly sunny - breezy at times - warmer.
Highs: 58-65 degree range
Wind: South winds at 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
Wednesday night: A chance for showers early in the evening - showers and thunderstorms becoming likely late. A few thunderstorms could become severe with damaging winds. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out - emphasis on isolated.
Lows: temperatures steady or slowly rising ahead of the cold front - by sunrise temperatures will be falling behind the cold front (into the 40s).
Wind: South winds at 10-20 mph becoming west late at 20-35 mph. Winds could be strong and gusty near thunderstorms and behind the cold front.
Precipitation probability - 80%-100% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" - most of the rain will fall after midnight - see the Thursday forecast
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: West winds at 15-35 mph with gusts to 40-50 mph
Precipitation probability -90% between midnight and 8 am - then a 30% chance during the afternoon hours | Rainfall totals: 0.50"-1.00" (most of this will fall between midnight and 8 am)
Confidence in this forecast is high
Highs: 58-65 degree range
Wind: South winds at 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
Wednesday night: A chance for showers early in the evening - showers and thunderstorms becoming likely late. A few thunderstorms could become severe with damaging winds. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out - emphasis on isolated.
Wind: South winds at 10-20 mph becoming west late at 20-35 mph. Winds could be strong and gusty near thunderstorms and behind the cold front.
Precipitation probability - 80%-100% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" - most of the rain will fall after midnight - see the Thursday forecast
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Thursday: Windy. Morning thunderstorms - a few storms could be severe. Rain ending the morning hours - after 9/10 am. A period of sunshine early then followed by clouds. A chance for a snow shower or flurry during the afternoon hours. Temperatures falling through the day.
Highs: In the 55-60 degree range during the early morning hours - then falling into the 30s during the late morning and afternoon hour Wind: West winds at 15-35 mph with gusts to 40-50 mph
Precipitation probability -90% between midnight and 8 am - then a 30% chance during the afternoon hours | Rainfall totals: 0.50"-1.00" (most of this will fall between midnight and 8 am)
Confidence in this forecast is high
Thursday night: Decreasing clouds - a snow flurry possible early. Cold and windy. Wind chill values into the teens.
Lows: in the 22-25 degree range
Wind: West winds at 10-30 mph - gusty - early then becoming northwest at 10-20 mph late.
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: Trace
Confidence in this forecast is high
Friday - A cold start to the day - mostly sunny otherwise. Morning lows will start in the 20s with wind chills into the teens. Temperatures will be slow to rise on Friday afternoon.
Highs: in the upper 30s
Wind: West winds at 10-20 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Friday night - Mostly clear and cold.
Highs: in the upper teens to lower 20s
Wind: Northwest winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
This
forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri,
southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
HEADLINES: A busy weather pattern is unfolding. Let's tackle the details for the next 48 hours and touch on the extended.
A storm system will pull into Missouri on Wednesday afternoon and evening. A deep area of low pressure will strengthen and move northeast into Illinois by Thursday morning. This area of low pressure will drag a cold front through our local counties on Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
Ahead of the area of low pressure we will see an increase in moisture - strong southerly winds - rising temperatures. This during the day on Wednesday.
Showers and thunderstorms will form on Wednesday afternoon across portions of Missouri and Arkansas. These showers and thunderstorms will develop and spread into our local counties during the overnight hours on Wednesday and continue into the wee hours of Thursday morning. Timing could be as late as 3-4-5 AM.
There are several pros and cons to forecasting severe weather on Wednesday night and Thursday morning. I am not forecasting a widespread severe weather outbreak for our local communities. I am forecasting the potential for a few reports of damaging winds and an isolated tornado.
Wind fields will be strong with this system. That means a fast jet stream with a lot of wind shear (wind shear means the winds will be turning in the atmosphere as you go from ground levels to higher levels). This will be favorable for damaging wind gusts with any thunderstorms that develop.
Instability will be lacking on Wednesday night and Thursday morning. This means that the forecast for widespread severe weather appears unlikely. What is more likely will be a solid line of showers and thunderstorms with a few reports of damaging wind. Because of the strong wind shear there will be a chance for isolated tornadoes, as well.
The time frame could be as late as 3 or 4 am in some counties - new data indicates even later into the morning hours.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined most of our region in a risk zone for Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Remember that the SPC are the ones who issue severe thunderstorm and tornado watches. The National Weather Service Office in Paducah will be the ones that issue any warnings.
The overall threat for severe weather at any given location will be rather small. However, it only takes one event to cause problems. We all know this.
Bottom line - listen to local media and/or NOAA Weather Radio on Wednesday night and Thursday morning. There could be some watches and warnings well after midnight on Wednesday night and into the early morning hours on Thursday.
In addition to the above, there will be strong and gusty winds behind the cold front during the day on Thursday. Winds will be gusting in the 20-35 mph range - occasional gusts of 40-50 mph will be possible. These winds will be gradient winds.
Temperatures behind the system will fall into the 20s on Thursday night and Friday morning. This coupled with cold temperatures will mean wind chills down into the teens. A cold morning for kids at the bus stop.
The extended forecast...
Another storm system is likely to take shape over the region by next Monday night into Thursday. This could be a precipitation maker for our local counties on Christmas Day. See my Facebook posts concerning this topic.
It is still too early to make a call on exact weather conditions in our region. Right now it looks like rain will be possible on Christmas Day - the rain may end as a wintry mix on Wednesday or Thursday. Far from certain - low confidence. Monitor for updates.
If you have travel plans next Monday through Thursday then monitor updates concerning this potential storm.
Wind: West winds at 10-30 mph - gusty - early then becoming northwest at 10-20 mph late.
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: Trace
Confidence in this forecast is high
Friday - A cold start to the day - mostly sunny otherwise. Morning lows will start in the 20s with wind chills into the teens. Temperatures will be slow to rise on Friday afternoon.
Highs: in the upper 30s
Wind: West winds at 10-20 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Friday night - Mostly clear and cold.
Highs: in the upper teens to lower 20s
Wind: Northwest winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
HEADLINES: A busy weather pattern is unfolding. Let's tackle the details for the next 48 hours and touch on the extended.
A storm system will pull into Missouri on Wednesday afternoon and evening. A deep area of low pressure will strengthen and move northeast into Illinois by Thursday morning. This area of low pressure will drag a cold front through our local counties on Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
Ahead of the area of low pressure we will see an increase in moisture - strong southerly winds - rising temperatures. This during the day on Wednesday.
Showers and thunderstorms will form on Wednesday afternoon across portions of Missouri and Arkansas. These showers and thunderstorms will develop and spread into our local counties during the overnight hours on Wednesday and continue into the wee hours of Thursday morning. Timing could be as late as 3-4-5 AM.
There are several pros and cons to forecasting severe weather on Wednesday night and Thursday morning. I am not forecasting a widespread severe weather outbreak for our local communities. I am forecasting the potential for a few reports of damaging winds and an isolated tornado.
Wind fields will be strong with this system. That means a fast jet stream with a lot of wind shear (wind shear means the winds will be turning in the atmosphere as you go from ground levels to higher levels). This will be favorable for damaging wind gusts with any thunderstorms that develop.
Instability will be lacking on Wednesday night and Thursday morning. This means that the forecast for widespread severe weather appears unlikely. What is more likely will be a solid line of showers and thunderstorms with a few reports of damaging wind. Because of the strong wind shear there will be a chance for isolated tornadoes, as well.
The time frame could be as late as 3 or 4 am in some counties - new data indicates even later into the morning hours.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined most of our region in a risk zone for Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Remember that the SPC are the ones who issue severe thunderstorm and tornado watches. The National Weather Service Office in Paducah will be the ones that issue any warnings.
The overall threat for severe weather at any given location will be rather small. However, it only takes one event to cause problems. We all know this.
Bottom line - listen to local media and/or NOAA Weather Radio on Wednesday night and Thursday morning. There could be some watches and warnings well after midnight on Wednesday night and into the early morning hours on Thursday.
In addition to the above, there will be strong and gusty winds behind the cold front during the day on Thursday. Winds will be gusting in the 20-35 mph range - occasional gusts of 40-50 mph will be possible. These winds will be gradient winds.
Temperatures behind the system will fall into the 20s on Thursday night and Friday morning. This coupled with cold temperatures will mean wind chills down into the teens. A cold morning for kids at the bus stop.
The extended forecast...
Another storm system is likely to take shape over the region by next Monday night into Thursday. This could be a precipitation maker for our local counties on Christmas Day. See my Facebook posts concerning this topic.
It is still too early to make a call on exact weather conditions in our region. Right now it looks like rain will be possible on Christmas Day - the rain may end as a wintry mix on Wednesday or Thursday. Far from certain - low confidence. Monitor for updates.
If you have travel plans next Monday through Thursday then monitor updates concerning this potential storm.
Severe thunderstorms on Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. A few reports of severe weather will be possible. Overall coverage of the threat appears small. It only takes one incident to cause problems. Monitor for updates.
Strong winds on Thursday - winds from the west will range from 20-35 mph. Wind gusts of 35-50 mph will be possible. This will be gradient winds. Gradient winds are behind the storm system because of the deep area of low pressure that will push through the region. These winds will likely continue into Thursday afternoon.
Temperatures will be cold on Friday morning - lows in the 20s with wind chills temperatures into the teens.
Yes - monitor any watches and/or warnings that may need to be issued on Wednesday night and Thursday morning. There could be a few severe thunderstorms during this time frame. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out.
Wild card in this forecast will be severe thunderstorms on Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Instability will be lacking - wind fields will be strong. That means that a few reports of severe weather will be possible on Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Monitor local media and/or NOAA Weather Radio for the most up to date information..
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado.
Wednesday: Severe thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday night - right now the main concern would be damaging winds and an isolated tornado. This does not look like a widespread severe weather outbreak - but a few reports of severe weather will be possible. No snow or ice.
Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits Yes - Wednesday night
Thursday: Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday morning - mainly the wee hours of the morning (12 am through 8 am). Monitor for watches and warnings. Precipitation may end as a flurry or light snow over our northern counties on Thursday late morning into the afternoon hours. Right now this does not look like a big deal. Novelty snow showers perhaps.
Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits? Thursday morning - before 11 am. Thunderstorms will end from west to east on Thursday morning.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits? No
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
or
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
Wednesday - Not during the day
Wednesday night - watches possible/likely
Thursday morning - watches possible/likely into wee hours of the morning
Thursday afternoon - No
Friday - No
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
Wednesday night - watches possible/likely
Thursday morning - watches possible/likely into wee hours of the morning
Thursday afternoon - No
Friday - No
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The
links above are interactive and you can move around the United States
by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down
menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
What are my current thoughts on the chances for significant snow or ice over the next 7 days
Can't rule out some snow showers on the back end of the storm as it pulls away on Thursday. Right now it appears this is most likely over our northern counties - southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Accumulation is not a big concern. Novelty snow showers as the cold air moves into the region.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site !
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. I have added all of eastern Kentucky, as well.
We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS ---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
What are my current thoughts on the chances for significant snow or ice over the next 7 days
Can't rule out some snow showers on the back end of the storm as it pulls away on Thursday. Right now it appears this is most likely over our northern counties - southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Accumulation is not a big concern. Novelty snow showers as the cold air moves into the region.
You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
.
The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
.We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site !
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. I have added all of eastern Kentucky, as well.
We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS ---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's
check out the how much rain is forecast to fall in our region. This
map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
Click the link below - then choose your the time period you are interested in!
CLICK HERE FOR THE RAINFALL GRAPHIC - then choose the time frame above the image
Click the link below - then choose your the time period you are interested in!
CLICK HERE FOR THE RAINFALL GRAPHIC - then choose the time frame above the image
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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1. Drought conditions continue over our region. We desperately need above normal rainfall. It does appear the next 2-3 weeks will provide some opportunity for additional rainfall.
Latest drought information:
DROUGHT INFORMATION - CLICK HERE
Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here
If you are a weather enthusiast then I recommend listening to WeatherBrains each week! For a more in-depth look at what is happening in meteorology.
Now is a GREAT time
to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before
storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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