December 16th-19th:
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
Monday: Patchy morning fog possible. Some clouds - a chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Best chance for thunderstorms will be over our eastern and southeastern counties. A few storms could produce hail and high winds.
Highs: 58-62 degree range then falling during the afternoon hours
Wind: West winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" scattered - locally heavier in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is high
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
Monday night: Decreasing cloudiness.
Lows: in the lower to middle 30s
Wind: West winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 0%-0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: Southwest at 10 mph
Precipitation probability -0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Highs: 58-62 degree range then falling during the afternoon hours
Wind: West winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" scattered - locally heavier in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is high
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
Monday night: Decreasing cloudiness.
Wind: West winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 0%-0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Tuesday: Partly cloudy sky conditions
Highs: In the 58-64 degree rangeWind: Southwest at 10 mph
Precipitation probability -0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Tuesday night: Partly cloudy
Lows: in the 38-44 degree range
Wind: South winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wednesday - Increasing clouds and mild - winds increasing through the afternoon hours. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm late in the day.
Highs: in the lower to middle 60s
Wind: South winds at 10-20 mph - becoming gusty towards evening
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is medium
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
HEADLINES: A very active pattern is developing for our region. There will be multiple chances for precipitation over the coming two week period.
The first storm system to monitor will arrive on late Monday morning into Monday afternoon - this system will produce a few showers and thunderstorms as it strengthens and moves to the northeast. Right now it appears that a few of the storms could produce hail and high winds - the area of concern appears to be from Evansville, Indiana towards Kentucky Lake and then eastward. Basically the eastern counties in our region. Monitor for updates on Monday in the event a few storms form.
Otherwise, there will be some clouds and showers and thunderstorms in our area on Monday as the system pulls through. Main chance of precipitation would be during the late morning into the afternoon hours.
We will have a break on Tuesday. No significant weather is expected. We will be in between storm systems.
A powerful winter storm will develop on Wednesday and Thursday and push through our region. We will be on the warm side of this winter storm. That means showers and thunderstorms will likely occur. I will need to fine tune the timing of the front. Right now I think the best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be on Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Right now it appears that an area of low pressure will move out of Oklahoma and into Missouri and eventually Illinois. As this system strengthens it will pull warm/moist Gulf of Mexico air northward ahead of a strong cold front.
Showers and thunderstorms will form along and ahead of the front. These showers and storms will move through our region starting perhaps as early as late Wednesday afternoon (western counties) and continuing chances into Thursday morning.
Wind fields will be strong with this system. Instability may be lacking. I can't rule out a few of the thunderstorms becoming severe. This is especially true over our southern counties. Monitor for updates in the event instability is strong than forecast.
If severe thunderstorms develop then the main concern would be damaging wind gusts. Isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out. Again, monitor for updates. The exact track of the area of low pressure will play into any threat for severe weather.
Rainfall totals on Wednesday night into Thursday morning will likely be in the 0.30"-0.60" range. Locally heavier amounts will be possible with thunderstorms.
As the cold front passes through our region there will be colder air arriving. Strong and gusty winds will occur along and behind the cold front. I am expecting winds to gust in the 20-35 mph range as the system pulls away and the area of low pressure continues to deepen. The strongest winds would likely be Wednesday night into Thursday night. First from the south and then shifting to the west.
Several more storm systems are on the map in the long range - one around Christmas. Monitor for updates concerning this storm, as well.
Busy busy pattern shaping up.
Wind: South winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wednesday - Increasing clouds and mild - winds increasing through the afternoon hours. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm late in the day.
Highs: in the lower to middle 60s
Wind: South winds at 10-20 mph - becoming gusty towards evening
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is medium
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
HEADLINES: A very active pattern is developing for our region. There will be multiple chances for precipitation over the coming two week period.
The first storm system to monitor will arrive on late Monday morning into Monday afternoon - this system will produce a few showers and thunderstorms as it strengthens and moves to the northeast. Right now it appears that a few of the storms could produce hail and high winds - the area of concern appears to be from Evansville, Indiana towards Kentucky Lake and then eastward. Basically the eastern counties in our region. Monitor for updates on Monday in the event a few storms form.
Otherwise, there will be some clouds and showers and thunderstorms in our area on Monday as the system pulls through. Main chance of precipitation would be during the late morning into the afternoon hours.
We will have a break on Tuesday. No significant weather is expected. We will be in between storm systems.
A powerful winter storm will develop on Wednesday and Thursday and push through our region. We will be on the warm side of this winter storm. That means showers and thunderstorms will likely occur. I will need to fine tune the timing of the front. Right now I think the best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be on Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Right now it appears that an area of low pressure will move out of Oklahoma and into Missouri and eventually Illinois. As this system strengthens it will pull warm/moist Gulf of Mexico air northward ahead of a strong cold front.
Showers and thunderstorms will form along and ahead of the front. These showers and storms will move through our region starting perhaps as early as late Wednesday afternoon (western counties) and continuing chances into Thursday morning.
Wind fields will be strong with this system. Instability may be lacking. I can't rule out a few of the thunderstorms becoming severe. This is especially true over our southern counties. Monitor for updates in the event instability is strong than forecast.
If severe thunderstorms develop then the main concern would be damaging wind gusts. Isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out. Again, monitor for updates. The exact track of the area of low pressure will play into any threat for severe weather.
Rainfall totals on Wednesday night into Thursday morning will likely be in the 0.30"-0.60" range. Locally heavier amounts will be possible with thunderstorms.
As the cold front passes through our region there will be colder air arriving. Strong and gusty winds will occur along and behind the cold front. I am expecting winds to gust in the 20-35 mph range as the system pulls away and the area of low pressure continues to deepen. The strongest winds would likely be Wednesday night into Thursday night. First from the south and then shifting to the west.
Several more storm systems are on the map in the long range - one around Christmas. Monitor for updates concerning this storm, as well.
Busy busy pattern shaping up.
Monday could bring a few thunderstorms to our eastern counties. Can't rule out a severe thunderstorm with hail and damaging winds. Threat appears small in actual aerial coverage - but monitor for updates tomorrow morning.
I will be watching another system for Wednesday into Thursday. The timing of the front is still in question. I believe the best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be on Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
Monitor for updates. There could be a few severe thunderstorms with this system. Wind fields will be strong. Instability is the only question that remains.
A few thunderstorms on Monday morning (late) into Monday afternoon - main concern will be over our eastern counties. Hail and gusty winds possible with any thunderstorms that form.
Watching a bigger storm system for Wednesday into Thursday. Gusty storms possible. There will at least be a chance for a few severe thunderstorms - isolated tornadoes possible, as well. Monitor for updates.
The placement of thunderstorms on Monday afternoon - right now it appears mainly along and east of a line from Evansville, Indiana to Kentucky Lake..
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado.
Monday: A few thunderstorms may reach severe thunderstorms over our eastern counties - the threat appears to be for hail and damaging winds. Monitor NWS watches and/or warnings in case they are needed. No snow or ice.
Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits Yes - mainly our eastern counties (along and east of the Ohio River for the most part).
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits? No
Wednesday: Severe weather can't be ruled out on Wednesday night into Thursday morning - check back for updates. No snow or ice.
Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits? Yes - monitor for updates
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
Monday - Perhaps over our eastern counties - monitor for updates
Tuesday - No
Wednesday -monitor Wednesday night
Wednesday night - yes - possible
Thursday - yes, during the morning hours (early early)
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
Tuesday - No
Wednesday -monitor Wednesday night
Wednesday night - yes - possible
Thursday - yes, during the morning hours (early early)
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
What are my current thoughts on the chances for significant snow or ice over the next 7 days
No significant snow or ice in the current forecast.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site !
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. I have added all of eastern Kentucky, as well.
We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS ---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
What are my current thoughts on the chances for significant snow or ice over the next 7 days
No significant snow or ice in the current forecast.
You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
.We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site !
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. I have added all of eastern Kentucky, as well.
We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS ---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall in our region. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
Click the link below - then choose your the time period you are interested in!
CLICK HERE FOR THE RAINFALL GRAPHIC - then choose the time frame above the image
Click the link below - then choose your the time period you are interested in!
CLICK HERE FOR THE RAINFALL GRAPHIC - then choose the time frame above the image
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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1. Drought conditions continue over our region. We desperately need above normal rainfall. It does appear the next 2-3 weeks will provide some opportunity for additional rainfall.
Latest drought information:
DROUGHT INFORMATION - CLICK HERE
Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here
If you are a weather enthusiast then I recommend listening to WeatherBrains each week! For a more in-depth look at what is happening in meteorology.
Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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